生态用水的估算方法研究和问题探讨

针对“生态用水”概念及使用混乱的现象,本研究对生态系统的需水、用水的概念进行描述和界定,并对背景和研究状况进行了综述,提出了不同生态系统的用水估算方法。在此基础上,提出了目前生态用水的相关研究中存在的问题,以及在生态用水的机理上研究方面的可能突破。最后讨论了在全球气候变暖、水资源亏缺的背景下,生态用水的时间变化及与之相应的水资源供需平衡问题将会成为关注的热点问题。     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

北部湾6.1,6.2级地震序列的环境应力场

应用Ｐ波初动半周期直接测定环境剪应力值的方法,测定了北部湾６．１,６．２级地震前后中小地震的环境剪应力值τ０,由此分析了北部湾地震过程的环境应力场特征。结果表明,北部湾６．１级地震后平均剪应力值较高,达１８ＭＰａ左右;６．２级地震及两次５级余震后剪应力值下降很快,降至目前的６ＭＰａ左右。在此基础上对北部湾地震活动趋势作了初步分析。     

Fault slip and modern tectonic stress field in and around Kunming basin

Kunming basin is a Cenozoic faulted basin under the control of mainly SN-trending active faults. In and around the basin, there are a total of eight major active faults. Seismo-geological survey and fault slip observation show that the SN- and NE-trending active faults are mostly sinistral strike-slip faults, while the NW-trending faults are mostly dextral strike-slip faults. Using stress tensor inversion method with 706 active fault striation data at 22 measurement sites, we determined tectonic stress field of the study area. The result shows that modern tectonic stress field in and around Kunming basin is characterized by NNW-SSE compression, ENE-WSW extension, and strike-slip stress regimes. The maximum principal compressional stress (σ1) is oriented 335o~2o, with an average dip angle of 21°; the minimum (σ3) is oriented 44o~93o, with an average dip angle of 14°, and the intermediate (σ2) has a high, or nearly vertical, dip angle. The inversion result from fault slip data is consistent with the result from focal mechanism solutions.     

Investigation of gas content of organic-rich shale:A case study from Lower Permian shale in southern North China Basin,central China

Measuring gas content is an essential step in estimating the commerciality of gas reserves. In this study,eight shale core samples from the Mouye-1 well were measured using a homemade patented gas desorption apparatus to determine their gas contents. Due to the air contamination that is introduced into the desorption canister, a mathematical method was devised to correct the gas quantity and quality.Compared to the chemical compositions of desorbed gas, the chemical compositions of residual gas are somewhat different. In residual gas, carbon dioxide and nitrogen record a slight increase, and propane is first observed. This phenomenon may be related to the exposure time during the transportation of shale samples from the drilling site to the laboratory, as well as the differences in the mass, size and adsorptivity of different gas molecules. In addition to a series of conventional methods, including the USBM direct method and the Amoco Curve Fit(ACF) method, which were used here for lost gas content estimation, a Modified Curve Fit(MCF) method, based on the 'bidisperse' diffusion model, was established to estimate lost gas content. By fitting the ACF and MCF models to gas desorption data, we determined that the MCF method could reasonably describe the gas desorption data over the entire time period, whereas the ACF method failed. The failure of the ACF method to describe the gas desorption process may be related to its restrictive assumption of a single pore size within shale samples. In comparison to the indirect method, this study demonstrates that none of the three methods studied in this investigation(USBM, ACF and MCF) could individually estimate the lost gas contents of all shale samples and that the proportion of free gas relative to total gas has a significant effect on the estimation accuracy of the selected method. When the ratio of free gas to total gas is lower than 45%, the USBM method is the best for estimating the lost gas content, whereas when the ratio ranges from 45% to 75% or is more than 75%, the ACF and MCF methods, are the best options respectively.     

稳健估计方法提高数据处理精度

介绍了近代平差理论的稳健估计方法,编制稳健估计方法的程序,并通过实例验证,与最小二乘估计进行比较,表明稳健估计在水准网粗差探测和平差计算中优于最小二乘估计方法,并且能够定位粗差,从而进行消除或者减弱,得到较为干净的观测值。因此,稳健估计方法应用于测量平差具有一定的抵抗粗差的能力,从而可以提高数据处理的精度。     

Bayesian Discovery Process Modeling of the Lower and Middle Jurassic Play of the Halten Terrace,Offshore Norway,as Compared with the Previous Modeling

A Bayesian version of the discovery process model was applied to the pre-rift Lower and Middle Jurassic play of the Halten Terrace, Mid-Norway. The Bayesian approach estimates the lognormal parameters, the discoverability parameter, and the distribution of sizes of the undiscovered fields as well as the play potential, conditioned on a discovery sequence averaging for all possible prior choices weighted by their likelihood. This approach avoids the problem of having to make arbitrary choices for the parameters. The estimates of parameters and play potential based upon the present methodology compares well with previous estimates, if the play is divided into two sub-plays representing the overpressured and normally pressured zones. These sub-plays have been estimated independently and aggregated in order to get the total undiscovered resource potential. This study estimates that the expected remaining play potential is 100 × 10⁶Sm³ o.e., about 9% of the total resources in the play. There is however a 90% chance that the remaining potential ranges from 13 to 282× 10⁶ Sm³ o.e. and a 5% possibility of exceeding this value.     

由环境应力值寻找地震危险区的尝试

作者根据位错理论,采用二维矩形破裂模式,在导出了平均震源速度谱的基础上,导出了用地震波计算环境剪应力τ_0的公式。计算了1987—1991年中国和邻区大约1000多次4级以上中强地震的环境剪应力值τ_0,并把τ_0≥10MPa的地震看作是高剪应力值地震。自1987—1991年5年内,我国及邻区共发生M_s≥6.0的强震45次,和160余次高剪应力中强地震(M=4.0-5.0,τ_0≥10MPa),大约有1/4的强震和1/3的高应力值地震发生在台湾地区。说明台湾地区是一个高地震活动区和高应力值地区。新疆的喀什—乌恰—乌什地区也是高地震活动区和高应力值地区。我们对发生在其地区的强震,向前追溯了环境应力值τ_0的变化。发现有11个强震事件(约占全部事件80%)在震前1—5年内,在以强震为圆心,半径为200km范围内(个别略远),均有1—2个或多个高应力值地震出现。说明当高应力值地震发生时,该地区环境应力在增高,它可以作为将要发生强震的前兆。据此,推测了今后3年内大陆强震发生的可能地区是:①中印缅三国边境地区;②西藏波密地区;③青海北部到宁夏北部地区;④新疆伊宁地区;⑤纵贯新青藏90°E±2°线地带;⑥晋北忻州地区;⑦苏北及黄海地区;⑧山东长岛地区。     

Analysis of crack movements observed in an alpine bedrock cliff

Crack widths and rock temperatures were monitored on an andestic bedrock cliff in the summit area of the Daisetsu Mountains, Hokkaido, northern Japan. Sequential data recorded the gradual widening of a crack to the point of critical crack extension, which resulted in catastrophic rock breakage. The data indicate that a combination of liquid water in?ltration into crack tip and subsequent freezing is the most signi?cant factor contributing to critical crack extension. The recorded sub‐critical crack movements involved a number of minor crack extensions and contractions, the timing of which correlates well with the magnitude of the reconstructed thermal stresses at the crack tip derived from thermal deformation of the plate‐shaped rock fragment. Larger crack extensions occurred when stress at the crack tip exceeded a threshold value, possibly re?ecting the control of rock fracture mechanics by which cracks are thought to propagate when the stress intensity factor at the crack tip exceeds the threshold values for stress corrosion cracking and the fracture toughness of the material. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inferred ground motions on Guadeloupe during the 2004 Les Saintes earthquake

Accurate estimates of the ground motions that occurred during damaging earthquakes are a vital part of many aspects of earthquake engineering, such as the study of the size and cause of the uncertainties within earthquake risk assessments. This article compares a number of methods to estimate the ground shaking that occurred on Guadeloupe (French Antilles) during the 21st November 2004 (M _w 6.3) Les Saintes earthquake, with the aim of providing more accurate shaking estimates for the investigation of the sources of uncertainties within loss evaluations, based on damage data from this event. The various techniques make differing use of the available ground-motion recordings of this earthquake and by consequence the estimates obtained by the different approaches are associated with differing uncertainties. Ground motions on the French Antilles are affected by strong local site effects, which have been extensively investigated in previous studies. In this article, use is made of these studies in order to improve the shaking estimates. It is shown that the simple methods neglecting the spatial correlation of earthquake shaking lead to uncertainties similar to those predicted by empirical ground-motion models and that these are uniform across the whole of Guadeloupe. In contrast, methods (such as the ShakeMap approach) that take account of the spatial correlation in motions demonstrate that shaking within roughly 10 km of a recording station (covering a significant portion of the investigated area) can be defined with reasonable accuracy but that motions at more distant points are not well constrained.