Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

江苏淤泥质潮滩对海平面变化的形态响应

通过对江苏滨海平原淤泥质潮滩1980年以来19个固定潮滩断面112个测次滩面高程测量的统计分析，探讨典型淤泥质潮滩剖面形态对海平面变化的形态响应过程。结果表明，典型淤涨岸段海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面仍将淤积加高，但淤高幅度除多年平均高潮线附近滩面相对较大外，其余均较小，表明随海平面上升该滩带总体淤积速率将趋于减小；与此相反，多年平均潮位线以下滩面则趋于蚀低，且侵蚀强度较大，表明该滩带的侵蚀有加剧趋向，最终滩面总体形态将因上带不断淤高和下带不断蚀低而逐渐变陡，剖面上凸形态的曲率不断加大。曲型侵蚀岸段，海平面上升的效应则相反，海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面强烈蚀低；而多年平均潮位线以下滩面则强烈淤积加高，剖面的上凹形态最终将因上带不断蚀低和下带不断淤高而趋于平直。     

干旱区水土资源时空变化的定量研究

水资源是制约干旱区土地资源开发利用的主要自然因素，水、土资源利用在时间和空间上平衡与否的矛盾影响着干旱区生态环境与社会发展。用定量化的数学模型表示二者的互相影响，能描述、解释和预测二者关系并能为制定对策提供依据。本文首先分析了干旱区土地利用与水资源的相互影响，然后对水土资源相互影响下时空变化的模拟方法和理论进行了综述。一方面从蒸散的计算、模拟地下水补给、模拟区域尺度上土地利用影响、模拟土地管理措施影响、模拟抽取地下水影响、以系统方法模拟土地利用影响等几方面对土地利用影响下水资源的时空变化模拟进行了综述。同时对水资源影响下土地利用变化的模拟从主要考虑水文作用的水文－植被模型的建立应用及引入人为因素为驱动力的土地利用变化模拟两方面做了综述。文章最后进一步概括了干旱区水土资源时空变化模拟的趋势并就此方面的研究提出了三点展望意见。     

Global heat budget, plate tectonics and climatic change

For the past 2000 Ma, the temperature of the Earth's surface has fluctuated around a mean similar to that of today, although individual locations have undergone long-term changes of ∼30°C at different times in different places. Water bodies absorb at least five times as much solar radiation as land surfaces, and ocean currents transport the excess heat absorbed in the tropics towards the poles. Changes in the distribution of land and sea due to plate tectonics explain the major temperature fluctuations (>25°C) around the globe in the last 350 Ma, and are first-order controls. Large-scale changes in ocean currents and thermohaline circulations are probably second-order controls (15–25°C). The Milankovitch orbital cycles are third-order controls producing variations in air temperature of the order of 10°C, while massive volcanic eruptions and changes in carbon dioxide are amongst the fourth-order controls producing minor perturbations (<5°C). The major climatic fluctuations are continuous but regional in effect and not global. Extraterrestrial factors may not cause major changes in climate when viewed from a geological perspective.     

Pauperizing the pastoral periphery: the marginalization of herding communities in the world's dry lands

Environmental degradation and other socio-economic problems are too often discerned in contemporary pastoral systems in the wake of global economic change. This paper identifies cases where pastoral people respond to external pressures and opportunities in positive ways and adapt to changes. We hope that by doing this a framework of pastoral adaptations can be developed. The first part of this paper focuses on impacts of global economic change, which are mostly negative in nature. Through an extensive literature search in geography, anthropology, range management, and development field, the second part introduces cases that we categorize as positive adaptations.     

(Re)surveying the uses of Geographical Information Systems in Health Authorities 1991–2001

This paper provides a comparative analysis of two separate national surveys of the uptake and use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) by Health Authorities (HAs) in England and Wales. The surveys were undertaken at two different time points (1991 and 2001), and the intervening period has been characterized by major (and continuing) health sector restructuring. The substantial number of HA mergers between 1991 and 2001 provide a methodological challenge in attempting to make comparisons. A pragmatic approach is adopted and the presentation of results has to be restricted solely to English and Welsh HA data. Our findings show that there has been a considerable increase in the use of GIS since the early 1990s, and there is some evidence of more sophisticated uses for a wider range of policy-related and application tasks. However, we conclude that there is still considerable scope for the wider uptake and use of GIS within the NHS. In addition, our findings provide a baseline with which to monitor the impacts of future organizational restructuring on the uses of GIS within the NHS. We suggest that this is important given the replacement of 95 English HAs with 28 new Strategic HAs (StHAs) from April 2002, and the repercussions of the anticipated shift in GIS responsibility to Primary Care Trusts.     

Late Pleistocene–Holocene hydrologic changes in the interfluve areas of the central Ganga Plain, India

Abandoned channel belts, ponds and point bar deposits of palaeochannels in the interfluve regions of the central Ganga Plain suggest changes in the morphohydrologic conditions during the Latest Pleistocene–Holocene. Stratigraphy of these ponds comprises channel sand at the base overlain by shell-bearing clayey silt. The contact of the two facies marks the phase when channels converted into standing water bodies. Point bar deposits of some palaeochannels are overlain by oxidised aeolian sand, indicating that the channel abandonment possibly occurred due to the desiccation and aridity in the region.Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) chronometry of the pond sediments suggests that the deposition of the basal channel sand started before 13 ka and continued up to 8 ka. The ponds formed around 8–6 ka when the channel activity ceased. Evidence from the point bar deposits also indicates that the fluvial activity in the region ended sometime during 7–5 ka. This was followed by aeolian aggradation. The present study thus suggests that the hydrologic conditions in the Gangetic plains, i.e. initiation of channels and their abandonment, formation of microgeomorphologic features such as ponds and their eventual siltation, were controlled largely by climatic changes (i.e. monsoon changes) supported by tectonic activity. For the past 2 ka, increasing human and related agricultural activity has substantially accentuated the natural siltation rate of ponds.     

Impact of climate change and variability on water resources in Heihe River Basin

Studies indicate that the climate has experienced a dramatic change in the Heihe River Basin with scope of temperature rise reaching 0.5-1.1oC in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, precipitation increased 18.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 6.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, water resources decreased 2.6×108 m3 in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 0.4×108 m3 in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990. These changes have exerted a greater effect on the local environment and socio-economy, and also made the condition worsening in water resources utilizations in the Heihe Rver Basin.     

大洋多金属结核中1nm锰矿相的相变及其主要控制因素研究

多金属结核样品在室温中放置或加热干燥后 ,其中的 1nm锰矿相会部分或全部地相变为 0 7nm锰矿相 ,这说明 0 7nm锰矿相可能不是多金属结核的原生锰矿相 ,而仅仅是 1nm锰矿相的相变产物。研究结果表明 :1nm锰矿相结构中的Cu2 + 、Co2 + 、Ni2 + 等金属阳离子的含量与其结构稳定性有正相关关系 ,即金属离子含量越高 ,其结构越稳定 ,1nm锰矿相越不易相变为 0 7nm锰矿相 ,反之亦然 ;另外 ,不同金属阳离子稳定 1nm锰矿相结构的能力也不同 ,结核中几种主要金属阳离子对 1nm锰矿相结构的稳定能力从大到小为 :Ni2 + >Cu2 + >Co2 + >Zn2 + >Ca2 + =Mg2 + 。