Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.     

Direct simulation of solute recycling in irrigated areas

Solute recycling from irrigation can be described as the process that occurs when the salt load that is extracted from irrigation wells and distributed on the fields is returned to the groundwater below irrigated surfaces by deep percolation. Unless the salt load leaves the system by means of drains or surface runoff, transfer to the groundwater will take place, sooner or later. This can lead to solute accumulation and thus to groundwater degradation, particularly in areas where extraction rates exceed infiltration rates (semi-arid and arid regions). Thus, considerable errors can occur in a predictive solute mass budget if the recycling process is not accounted for in the calculation. A method is proposed which allows direct simulation of solute recycling. The transient solute response at an extraction well is shown to be a superposition of solute mass flux contributions from n recycling cycles and is described as a function of the travel time distribution between a recycling point and a well. This leads to an expression for a transient ‘recycling source’ term in the advection–dispersion equation, which generates the effect of solute recycling. At long times, the ‘recycling source’ is a function of the local capture probability of the irrigation well and the solute mass flux captured by the well from the boundaries. The predicted concentration distribution at steady state reflects the maximum spatial concentration distribution in response to solute recycling and can thus be considered as the solute recycling potential or vulnerability of the entire domain for a given hydraulic setting and exploitation scheme. Simulation of the solute recycling potential is computationally undemanding and can therefore, for instance, be used for optimisation purposes. Also, the proposed method allows transient simulation of solute recycling with any standard flow and transport code.     

鲜水河断裂带古构造残余应力场对大地震的控制

以岩体正交异性弹性理论为基础,用X射线法,在鲜水河断裂带测区沿7条测线,测量了岩体三维残余应力,绘成区域残余应力等值线图、主应力线图及其应变能密度等值线图,探讨了其对带内大地震的控制作用     

临汾裂谷现代构造应力场特征及其数值模拟

根据断层错动资料和小地震的平均震源机制解结果,运用弹性力学的叠加原理,对临汾裂谷作三维有限元模拟,反演其构造应力场。结果表明,临汾裂谷现今主要受南东东-北西西向引张力作用,辅之以北东-南西方向的挤压,同时在裂谷的中心叠加有底层拖曳的深部作用。     

Heat flow in the Basin and Range province and thermal effects of tectonic extension

In regions of tectonic extension, vertical convective transport of heat in the lithosphere is inevitable. The resulting departure of lithosphere temperature and thickness from conduction-model estimates depends upon the mechanical mode of extension and upon how rapidly extension is (and has been) taking place. Present knowledge of these processes is insufficient to provide adequate constraints on thermal models. The high and variable regional heat flow and the intense local heat discharge at volcanic centers in the Basin and Range province of the United States could be accounted for by regional and local variations in extensional strain rate without invoking anomalous conductive heat flow from the asthenosphere. Anomalous surface heat flow typical of the province could be generated by distributed extension at average rates of about 1/2 to 1%/m.y., similar to rates estimated from structural evidence. To account for higher heat flow in subregions like the Battle mountain High, these rates would be increased by a factor of about 3, and locally at active bimodal volcanic centers, by an order of magnitude more.     

Modelling regional effects of artificial groundwater recharge in a multilayer aquifer characterized by perched water tables

This paper presents an approach to estimate the effects of a managed recharge experiment in a multilayer aquifer characterized by the presence of perched water tables in the Medina del Campo groundwater body, Douro basin, central Spain. A numerical model was developed to evaluate the effect of artificial recharge on the shallow sector of a regional-scale aquifer and on formerly active wetlands. The model was developed in the Visual MODFLOW Pro v.2011.1 environment in order to represent and analyse the regional impact of this artificial recharge event. Results suggest that the assumption of a single perched system may prove useful in regional contexts where data is limited. From a study site perspective, managed recharge is observed to increase shallow storage along the riverbanks, which is considered valuable for environmental purposes. However, downstream wetlands are unlikely to experience a significant recovery. Furthermore, only a small percentage of artificial recharge is expected to reach the deep regional aquifer. This method can be exported to settings characterized by the presence of perched aquifers and associated groundwater dependent ecosystems.     

A discussion on models of thermals

For a thermal starting from rest, the scales of motion consistent with the initial conditions are given. An alternative time scale based on the motion of the thermal is derived. The anticipated similarity solutions for thermals are summarised and possible qualitative differences between solutions are given. Within this consistent framework previously published laboratory and numerical models of thermals are discussed. Reasons why numerical models have not rigorously demonstrated the existence of a self-similarity solution are considered. Comparisons of all available results show that a single similarity solution valid for all thermals does not exist.     

USING A COMBINED SLOPE HYDROLOGY/STABILITY MODEL TO IDENTIFY SUITABLE CONDITIONS FOR LANDSLIDE PREVENTION BY VEGETATION IN THE HUMID TROPICS

The susceptibility of cut slopes to landsliding can be reduced in certain circumstances by the establishment of a vegetation cover. However, the hydrological implications of allowing a cover to develop may offset the mechanical benefits of soil reinforcement by roots. The balance between hydrological and mechanical effects is critical on slopes which are susceptible to the development of an infiltration-induced transitory perched water table, a common cause of landslides in deep, tropical residual soils. This balance is likely to change both between slopes of different types as well as temporally on any given slope. The net effect of a vegetation cover must be predicted either before natural vegetation covers are allowed to encroach on bare slopes, or if engineers are considering the use of trees as a protective measure. This paper presents a method of calculating the impact of a vegetation cover on slope stability. Simulations carried out on a wide range of slope types suggest that where failure is most likely to be triggered by infiltration rather than ground water rise, large-scale vegetation covers may contribute to instability. Whether vegetation had a positive or negative impact on slope stability was controlled by the permeability of the soil matrix, whilst the magnitude of impact was controlled by the soil strength and the slope height.     

MODELLING UNKNOWN STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE USE OF NEURAL NETWORKS

This paper explores the potential of using neural networks to identify the internal forces of typical systems encountered in the field of earthquake engineering and structural dynamics. After formulating the identification task as a neural network learning procedure, the method is applied to a representative chain-like system under deterministic and stochastic excitations. The neural network based identification method provides very good results for general classes of multi-degree-of-freedom structural systems. The range of validity of the approach is demonstrated, and some application issues are discussed for (a) partially known multi-degree-of-freedom systems and (b) completely unknown systems.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers. The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.