The Unprecedented Freezing Disaster in January 2008 in Southern China and Its Possible Association with the Global Warming

The unprecedented disaster of low temperature and persistent rain, snow, and ice storms, causing widespread freezing in the Yangtze River Basin and southern China in January 2008, is not a local or regional event, but a part of the chain events of large-scale low temperature and snow storms in the same period in Asia. The severity and impacts of the southern China 2008 freezing disaster were the most significant among others. This disastrous event was characterized by three major features： （1） snowfall, freezing rain, and rainfall, the three forms of precipitation, coexisted with freezing rain being the dominant producer responsible for the disaster; （2） low temperature, rain and snow, and freezing rain exhibited extremely great intensity, with record-breaking measurements observed for eight meteorological variables based on the statistics made by China National Climate Center and the provincial meteorological services in the Yangtze River Basin and southern China; （3） the disastrous weathers persisted for an exceptionally long time period, unrecorded before in the meteorological observation history of China.
The southern China 2008 freezing disaster may be resulted from multiple different factors that superimpose on and interlink with one another at the right time and place. Among them, the La Nina situation is a climate background that provided conducive conditions for the intrusions of cold air into southern China; the persistent anomaly of the atmospheric circulation in Eurasia is the direct cause for a succession of cold air incursions into southern China; and the northward transport of warm and moist airflows from the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea finally warranted the formation of the freezing rain and snow storms and their prolonged dominance in the southern areas of China.
A preliminary discussion of a possible association of this disastrous event with the global warming is presented. This event may be viewed as a short-term regional perturbation to the global warming. There is no     

边界层辐合线在局地强风暴临近预警中的应用

利用济南CINRAD/SA雷达探测到的边界层辐合信息,结合地面实况和探空资料及NCEP资料,对近年发生在山东中部的典型局地强风暴的生成及对流参数进行了分析.结果表明:高时空分辨率的雷达能获得近地层辐合线信息,对流风暴强的出流和近地层环境风的辐合在一定条件下可产生窄带回波;远离风暴主体的出流边界和顺地面风移动的风速辐合线在热力条件较弱的情况下一般不会产生对流天气;出流边界的叠加或出流边界与环境风辐合线的叠加在有利的环境条件下可产生局地强风暴,单纯的近地层辐合线在有利的环境条件下可产生较为孤立的局地风暴,可作为强对流天气临近预警的关键参考依据;风暴初始位置、初始时间和风暴类型具有不确定性,是强对流天气临近预警的难点.     

Evaluation of TMPA satellite-based research and real-time rainfall estimates during six tropical-related heavy rainfall events over Louisiana, USA

This study focuses on the evaluation of 3-hourly 0.25° × 0.25° satellite-based rainfall estimates produced by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). The evaluation is performed during six heavy rainfall events that were generated by tropical storms passing over Louisiana, United States. Two surface-based rainfall datasets from gauge and radar observations are used as a ground reference for evaluating the real-time (RT) version of the TMPA product and the post-real-time bias adjusted research version. The evaluation analysis is performed at the native temporal and spatial scales of the TMPA products, 3-hourly and 0.25° × 0.25°. Several graphical and statistical techniques are applied to characterize the deviation of the TMPA estimates from the reference datasets. Both versions of the TMPA products track reasonably well the temporal evolution and fluctuations of surface rainfall during the analyzed storms with moderate to high correlation values of 0.5–0.8. The TMPA estimates reported reasonable levels of rainfall detection especially when light rainfall rates are excluded. On a storm scale, the TMPA products are characterized by varying degrees of bias which was mostly within ± 25% and ± 50% for the research and RT products, respectively. Analysis of the error distribution indicated that, on average, the TMPA products tend to overestimate small rain rates and underestimate large rain rates. Compared to the real-time estimates, the research product shows significant improvement in the overall and conditional bias, and in the correlation coefficients, with slight deterioration in the probability of detecting rainfall occurrences. A fair agreement in terms of reproducing the tail of the distribution of rain rates (i.e., probability of surface rainfall exceeding certain thresholds) was observed especially for the RT estimates. Despite the apparent differences with surface rainfall estimates, the results reported in this study highlight the TMPA potential as a valuable resource of high-resolution rainfall information over many areas in the world that lack capabilities for monitoring landfalling tropical storms.     

Period characteristics of Pc1 pulsations observed at Ottawa

IMS data from Ottawa, Canada are analyzed to study the propagation characteristics of Pc1 pulsations. The majority of pulsations observed possessed periods of 1 second and lasted less than an hour. Shorter-period Pc1s are observed during the summer than during the winter. Periods of pulsations are also shorter during the noon hours than in the morning, and shorter during intervals of high magnetic activity. The diurnal variation of period at Ottawa is different from that at high-latitude stations. For Pc1s the calculated ratio of the spacing period to the pulse period at Ottawa is 86, in good agreement with values found for both higher- and lower-latitude stations. An IPDP (intervals of pulsations of diminishing periods) event occurred on April 19, 1977. The analysis supports the view that the energy dispersion of storm time protons, as well as the earthward movement of the instability region due to increasing magnetic activity, are involved in the production of such events. Earth Physics Branch Contribution No. 1087.     

Longitudinal (UT) effect in the onset of auroral disturbances over two solar cycles as deduced from the AE-index

Statistical study on the universal time variations in the mean hourly auroral electrojet index (AE-index) has been undertaken for a 21 y period over two solar cycles (1957–1968 and 1978–1986). The analysis, applied to isolated auroral substorm onsets (inferred from rapid variations in the AE-index) and to the bulk of the AE data, indicates that the maximum in auroral activity is largely confined to 09–18 UT, with a distinct minimum at 03–06 UT. The diurnal effect was clearly present throughout all seasons in the first cycle but was mainly limited to northern winter in the second cycle. Severe storms (AE > 1000 nT) tended to occur between 9–18 UT irrespective of the seasons whereas all larger magnetic disturbances (AE > 500 nT) tended to occur in this time interval mostly in winter. On the whole the diurnal trend was strong in winter, intermediate at equinox and weak in summer. The implication of this study is that Eastern Siberia, Japan and Australia are mostly at night, during the period of maximum auroral activity whereas Europe and Eastern America are then mostly at daytime. The minimum of auroral activity coincides with near-midnight conditions in Eastern America. It appears that the diurnal UT distribution in the AE-index reflects a diurnal change between interplanetary magnetic field orientation and the Earths magnetic dipole inclination.     

Characteristics of geomagnetic storm spectra in middle and low latitude regions and their relation with the tangshan earthquake

The characteristics of 80 geomagnetic storm spectra have been analyzed and compared for the records at seven observatories: Beijing, Qingguang, Changli, Guangzhou, Sheshan, Wuchang and Changchun during 1973–1977. The general natures of the spectra are thus obtained. The results are as follows. First, there are synchronous trends of change in the magnetic storm spectral amplitude at the seven observatories. Second, the sepctral slopes of all the magnetic storms are almost the same. The yearly average values of the spectral slopeb are quite steady within the period range from 0.5 to 6.8 hours. This means that the magnetic storms have the same energy partitioning factor. Third, there are significant changes in the yearly average values of spectral interceptsa for the three observatories of Beijing, Qingguang and Changli which are near the Tangshan earthquake area, but the values are quite steady for the four observatories of Guangzhou, Sheshan, Wuchang and Changchun which are far from the earthquake area. It seems that the noticeable changes are related to the great Tangshan earthquake of July 28, 1976.     

Assessment of temporal changes in coastal sand dune environments using the log-hyperbolic grain-size method

Abstract Three cores (<9 m long) recovered from late Holocene coastal sand dunes in Northumberland, north‐eastern England, were examined stratigraphically and dated by the infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) method to the time period between the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; ≈ 900–1200 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ≈ 1550–1800 AD). Grain‐size variability and CaCO₃ content were determined at 10‐mm intervals throughout parts of the cores. The sahara computer program was used to plot the log‐hyperbolic distribution (LHD) of grain‐size spectra from different stratigraphic levels and estimate the LHD's statistical components. Core samples plot variously in the depositional and erosional domains of the hyperbolic chi (χ) vs. xi (ξ) shape triangle, which describes components of sediment sorting. Depositional and erosional phases, discriminated within the LHD's shape triangle, cannot readily be resolved from core stratigraphies or correlated between cores. IRSL dates from single cores show a clustering about the period 1430–1540. Between the dated horizons, dunes accreted at ≈ 0·02–0·05 m year^?1, enabling the timing of excursions in χ and ξ to be estimated. These excursions, which can be resolved to the subannual level between the dated horizons, may be related to deposition by episodic storms or storm surges in the North Sea region, which is supported by historical documentary evidence. This innovative use of the LHD method and its derived statistics can be used successfully to describe temporal trends in coastal depositional environments and identify likely storm events in dune sediment records.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of decadal-scale patterns in barrier island response to storms: Perdido Key,NW Florida

The ability to accurately quantify shoreline variability is essential in order to establish aggressive mitigation strategies, based on recent global climate change projections. This investigation employed a suite of coastal data (topographic maps, aerial photography, satellite imagery and lidar) to establish decadal trends of shoreline movement along Perdido Key, a sandy barrier island off Florida’s northwest coast. The technique used to detect morphologic change with time was a recently developed tool, Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R. This innovative methodology improves our understanding of the evolution of coastal systems by modeling shoreline variance using a method that is sensitive to shoreline shape. Results show that the barrier shoreline is a highly dynamic feature with distinct zones of erosion and accretion that are pervasive over time. In general, the island is displaying a mechanism of rotational instability with the eastern half retreating, and the western portion advancing. The inflection point, around which this rotational shifting is taking place, lies at the center of a Pleistocene headland located along the island’s midpoint. The results of this study suggest that coastal evolution along the island may be meta-stable, with trends in shoreline variance corresponding mainly to discrete storm events in time.     

葵花8号卫星在白云机场一次强对流冰雹中的监测应用

针对2019年2月21日强对流冰雹过程,采用广东省多普勒雷达拼图的组合反射率因子资料作参考真值,分别利用葵花8号卫星资料的11.2μm通道与7.0μm通道亮温差拟合和11.2μm通道、7.0μm通道分段拟合对雷达回波进行反演,发现在强对流(回波强度≥35 dBZ)识别上,11.2μm通道、7.0μm通道分段线性拟合比亮...     

Sausage mode instability of thin current sheets as a cause of magnetospheric substorms

Observations have shown that, prior to substorm explosions, thin current sheets are formed in the plasma sheet of the Earth’s magnetotail. This provokes the question, to what extent current-sheet thinning and substorm onsets are physically, maybe even causally, related. To answer this question, one has to understand the plasma stability of thin current sheets. Kinetic effects must be taken into account since particle scales are reached in the course of tail current-sheet thinning. We present the results of theoretical investigations of the stability of thin current sheets and about the most unstable mode of their decay. Our conclusions are based upon a non-local linear dispersion analysis of a cross-magnetic field instability of Harris-type current sheets. We found that a sausage-mode bulk current instability starts after a sheet has thinned down to the ion inertial length. We also present the results of three-dimensional electromagnetic PIC-code simulations carried out for mass ratios up to M_i/m_e = 64. They verify the linearly predicted properties of the sausage mode decay of thin current sheets in the parameter range of interest.