Changes in post world war ii distribution and status of monsoon rainforests in the Darwin area

Monsoon rainforests in the Darwin area occur as isolated patches ranging in size from 2 to 112 ha. Aerial photographic records over a 45 year period indicate a 60 per cent reduction in the cover of pre‐1945 rainforest. Urban development, cyclone damage, weed invasion and wildfire were identified as the major causes of this contraction. Urban development contributed 40 per cent of the total rainforest loss during this period. Rainforests occurring on dry substrates have been most affected by urban development. Cyclonic storm damage and indirect human affects such as weed invasion and anthropogenic fires continue to disturb the remaining rainforest patches. Although the largest expanses of rainforest presently occur within parks and reserves, providing adequate protection from further urban encroachment, smaller remnants occurring on vacant crown land are vulnerable to changes in land use. As well as the introduction of appropriate legislation, the control of fire and weeds should be given the highest priority by land managers to ensure the stability and long‐term maintenance of this remnant vegetation.     

The effect of magnetic substorms on near-ground atmospheric current

Ionosphere-magnetosphere disturbances at high latitudes, e.g. magnetic substorms, are accompanied by energetic particle precipitation and strong variations of the ionospheric electric fields and currents. These might reasonably be expected to modify the local atmospheric electric circuit. We have analysed air-earth vertical currents (AECs) measured by a long wire antenna at Esrange, northern Sweden during 35 geomagnetic substorms. Using superposed epoch analysis we compare the air-earth current variations during the 3 h before and after the time of the magnetic X-component minimum with those for corresponding local times on 35 days without substorms. After elimination of the average daily variation we can conclude that the effect of substorms on AEC is small but distinguishable. It is speculated that the AEC increases observed during about 2 h prior to the geomagnetic X-component minimum, are due to enhancement of the ionospheric electric field. During the subsequent 2 h of the substorm recovery phase, the difference between substorm and quiet atmospheric currents decreases. The amplitude of this substorm variation of AEC is estimated to be less than 50% of the amplitude of the diurnal variation in AEC during the same time interval. The statistical significance of this result was confirmed using the Van der Waerden X-test. This method was further used to show that the average air-earth current and its fluctuations increase during late expansion and early recovery phases of substorms.     

珠江三角洲地区由海风锋触发形成的强对流天气过程分析

使用自动气象站、雷达回波、卫星云图、常规天气图、探空和风廓线仪等有关观测资料, 普查了1998年7月上旬珠江三角洲地区8次由海风锋触发形成的强对流天气过程, 并对其中7月3日过程进行了综合分析, 归纳出该类强对流天气过程的一些活动特征和规律。     

A Synoptic Climatology of Severe Storms in Virginia*

A synoptic climatology is developed for Virginia using 21 years of late spring and summer surface and upper air observations. The climatology is produced by applying a combination of principal components analysis and cluster analysis such that each day is classified into one of a distinct number of synoptic situations. Days on which at least one severe storm occurred in Virginia are merged with the synoptic climatology. A majority of severe storms are associated with one synoptic situation distinguished by moderate instability and a high moisture content.     

Storm catastrophes in the United States

A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms each producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. The storms caused $66.2 billion in losses (in 1991 values), 76% of the nation's insured storm losses in this period. These extreme storm catastrophes (SCs) were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rocky Mountains. Storm incidences were high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and increased in the 1980s. Losses due to SCs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) did not agree except when they all peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of SCs showed a marked north-south differences in the United States with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, and a relatively flat trend until a peak in the 1980s in the southern regions. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused catastrophes differed regionally with occurrences in the prime areas, the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S., each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm catastrophes were regionally more uniform.     

“地球空间双星探测计划”及其与全球环境变化的关系

本文论述了“地球空间双星探测计划”(简称双星计划)及其与全球环境变化的关系。地球空间双星探测计划包括两颗小卫星,分别运行于目前国际上地球空间探测卫星尚未覆盖的近地赤道区和近地极区。双星计划的主要科学目标是用高分辨率的仪器在近地空间的主要活动区探测场和粒子的时空变化;研究磁层空间暴(磁层亚暴、磁暴和磁层粒子暴)的触发机制及其对太阳活动和行星际扰动的响应过程;建立地球空间环境的动态模式。为了实现科学目标,赤道区卫星和极区卫星上各载有8台探测仪器。近地赤道区卫星的轨道是:近地点550km左右,远地点60000km左右,倾角约28.5°;近地极区卫星的轨道是:近地点700km,远地点40000km,倾角约90°。为了使双星计划与欧洲空间局ClusterII卫星相配合,赤道区卫星计划于2003年6月发射,极区卫星计划于2003年12月发射。双星计划与ClusterII卫星相配合,可形成地球空间6点探测计划,这将成为21世纪初国际上重要的地球空间探测计划。本文概要讨论了双星计划与地球系统各圈层的关系,包括与大气圈、生物圈、地球内部各圈层及全球环境变化的关系。     

Equatorial and low latitude ionosphere during intense geomagnetic storms

An investigation is made in order to analyse the role of neutral gas composition in the equatorial and low latitude ionosphere during intense geomagnetic storms. To this end data taken by the Dynamic Explorer 2 satellite at 280–300 km (molecular nitrogen N₂ and atomic oxygen O concentrations, electron density and vertical plasma drifts) are used. The sudden commencements of the events considered occurred at 11:38 UT on March 1, 1982, 18:41 UT on November 20, 1982 and 16:14 UT on February 4, 1983. Vertical plasma drifts are the most important contributor to the initial storm time response of the equatorial F region. Neutral composition changes (expressed as an increase in the molecular species, mainly N₂) possibly play a predominant role in the equatorial and low latitude (10–20°) decreases of electron density at heights near F2-region maximum during the main and recovery phases of intense geomagnetic storms. Delayed increases of electron density observed at daytime during the recovery phase may be also attributed to increases in atomic oxygen. At low latitudes possibly a combined effect of O increase and upward plasma drift due to enhanced equatorward winds is the responsible mechanism for the maintenance of enhanced electron density values.     

The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Pc3 Geomagnetic Activity over Canada in 2000, as a Guide to Planning the Times of Aeromagnetic Surveys

Geomagnetic activity affects aeromagnetic surveys. Geomagnetic variations are quite complex and can be quantified in different ways. A measure of geomagnetic activity that is useful for planning aeromagnetic surveys is the Pc3 pulsation index developed by the Australian Space Weather Agency. Purposeful to developing guidelines for planning aeromagnetic surveys in Canada, we study the variations in Pc3 index amplitude over Canada in 2000. This study shows distinct patterns associated with the sub-auroral zone, the auroral zone, and the polar cap. Average Pc3 index activity is higher during the months of February, July, September, and November in the auroral and sub-auroral zones. The station in the polar cap exhibits maximum activity near midday during the summer months. Detailed analysis of a magnetic storm shows that Pc3 index amplitude during the beginning of the solar storm is least important at the polar cap. The mean Pc3 index also relates to solar wind parameters such as the solar wind velocity and the vertical polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. Analysis of the morning maximum of the Pc3 index observed in the auroral zone can be used to develop guidelines for planning aeromagnetic surveys in Canada and other areas of the world affected by auroral zones.     

Are our ideas about Dst correct?

The idea of two separate storm time ring currents, a symmetric and an asymmetric one has accepted since the 1960s. The existence of a symmetric equatorial ring current was concluded from Dst. However, the asymmetric development of the low-latitude geomagnetic disturbance field during storms lead to the assumption of the real existence of an asymmetric ring current. I think it is time to inquire whether this conception is correct. Thus, I have investigated the development of the low-latitude geomagnetic field during all the magnetic local times under disturbed and quiet conditions. The storm on February 6–9, 1986 and a statistical analysis of many storms has shown that the asymmetry does not vanish during the storm recovery phase. The ratio between the recovery phase asymmetry and the main phase asymmetry is low only for powerful storms. Storms of moderate intensity show the opposite. The global picture of the field evolution of the February storm shows clear differences at different local times. For instance the main phase and recovery phase start time does not coincide with Dst. Also the ring current decay is not the same at different local times. Therefore, Dst gives an incorrect picture of the field development. Moreover, asymmetry does not disappear during international quiet days as the investigation of the low-latitude geomagnetic field shows. Considering all these observations, I think we must revise our ideas about the ring current. In my opinion only one ring current exists and this is an asymmetric one. This asymmetry increases during storms and develops rather fast to more or less symmetric conditions. However, in no case is itjustified to conclude from Dst that a symmetric ring current exists.     

The Dependence of the Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Flux Rope on Its Orientation,with Possible Application to Geomagnetic Storm Prediction

Interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) are one of the main sources of large non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. With the aid of a force-free flux rope model, the dependence of the intensity of geomagnetic activity (indicated by Dst index) on the axial orientation (denoted by θ and φ in GSE coordinates) of the magnetic cloud is analyzed theoretically. The distribution of the Dst values in the (θ, φ) plane is calculated by changing the axial orientation for various cases. It is concluded that (i) geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the region of θ<0°, especially in the region of θ≲−45°, where larger geomagnetic activity could be created; (ii) the intensity of geomagnetic activity varies more strongly with θ than with φ; (iii) when the parameters B ₀ (the magnetic field strength at the flux rope axis), R ₀ (the radius of the flux rope), or V (the bulk speed) increase, or |D| (the shortest distance between the flux rope axis and the x-axis in GSE coordinates) decreases, a flux rope not only can increase the intensity of geomagnetic activity, but also is more likely to create a storm, however the variation of n (the density) only has a little effect on the intensity; (iv) the most efficient orientation (MEO) in which a flux rope can cause the largest geomagnetic activity appears at φ∼0° or ∼ 180°, and some value of θ which depends mainly on D; (v) the minimum Dst value that could be caused by a flux rope is the most sensitive to changes in B ₀ and V of the flux rope, and for a stronger and/or faster MC, a wider range of orientations will be geoeffective. Further, through analyzing 20 MC-caused moderate to large geomagnetic storms during 1998 – 2003, a long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms on the basis of the flux rope model is proposed and assessed. The comparison between the theoretical results and the observations shows that there is a close linear correlation between the estimated and observed minimum Dst values. This suggests that using the ideal flux rope to predict practical MC-caused geomagnetic storms is applicable. The possibility of the long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms is discussed briefly.