关于城市暴雨强度公式推求的研究

城市暴雨强度公式的准确性直接影响着城市排水管网的规划设计,老一代的暴雨强度公式已经不能正确反映当地的降雨规律,亟需重新修订。本文以郑州市降雨资料为例,采用年最大值法选样和年多个样法选样对公式进行推求,通过对比分析发现年最大值法操作简单,误差更小,该方法有利于新一轮暴雨强度公式修编的普及。     

Cyclone Gonu storm surge in Oman

Super Cyclone Gonu is the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea. Gonu caused coastal damage due to storm surge and storm wave impact as well as wadi flooding. High water marks, overland flow depths, and inundation distances were measured in the coastal flood zones along the Gulf of Oman from 1 to 4 August 2007. The high water marks peaked at Ras al-Hadd at the eastern tip of Oman exceeding 5 m. The storm surge of Gonu is modeled using the Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC). The multi-hazard aspect is analyzed by comparing observations from Cyclone Gonu with the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.     

Maintenance of Near-Surface Stratification in Doubtful Sound, a New Zealand Fjord

The surface waters of Doubtful Sound, a glacially carved fjord in south-western New Zealand, feature a quasi-permanent low-salinity-layer (LSL). The LSL is maintained year round by the extreme precipitation in the catchment (7 m yr⁻¹) and discharge from a hydroelectric power station (450 m³ s⁻¹). The robust, stable LSL has been shown to play a major role in controlling intertidal and subtidal community structure. By contrast, little is known about the dynamics of the LSL itself. The work presented here elucidates the response of the LSL to perturbations in the wind stress and rainfall.Frequency-domain analysis of salinity data collected from an array of moored instruments revealed that the LSL responded to perturbations in both the winds and rainfall. However, the specific roles of the wind stress and rain could not be adequately resolved in these analyses. By contrast, simulations of the response of the LSL using a three-dimensional primitive equation model revealed that strong up-fjord directed wind events set up a storm surge at the head of the fjord. This surge significantly deepens the LSL at the head of the fjord and retards or reverses estuarine circulation. The subsequent relaxation of the surge after the abatement of the wind stress resulted in a redistribution of buoyancy throughout the fjord over a two-day period. It is shown that the development and relaxation of the storm surge is a major process controlling the maintenance of the near-surface stratification.     

A WDM method on a generalized curvilinear grid for calculation of storm surge flooding

In this paper, the wet-dry grid point method (WDM) with generalized curvilinear computation grids is introduced with the aim of presenting a kind of effective numerical model for real-time forecasting of storm surge flooding. To realize this general WDM method, generalized 2-D shallow sea dynamic equations in curvilinear co-ordinates are derived, and the contravariant components of the velocity vector are employed for easily realizing boundary conditions and making the wet-dry point judgement criterion more reasonable. As the generalized equations are not limited to a specific co-ordinate transformation, a self-adaptive grid generation method, which optimizes simultaneously grid smoothness, orthogonality and variation in cell volumes, is then proposed to meet the needs of WDM with varying spacing grids. The paper also provides a numerically stable difference scheme and this scheme is proved accurate by the verification calculation of observed storm surge.     

黄浦江严重风暴潮汐准周期性与趋势预测

据黄浦江吴淞站长系列潮位资料，采用功率普法、可公度性法和太阳黑子周期的位相法等分析，推得严重风暴潮的准周期有：2.5年、8年、34年和60年的多重周期特性，且都有它们各自宏观背景，从而综合绘制了黄浦江严重风暴潮趋势预测图，供研究参考。     

杭州湾台风风暴潮综合水位预报可视化

杭州湾由于独特的海湾地理位置和形态，台风引起风暴潮强烈增水。为给防汛部门提供技术支持，提高减灾防灾的效益，本文研制了界面清晰、操作方便、图文信息直观的台风增水预报可视化软件，预报台风对杭州湾水位带来的影响，预报结果直观、形象。     

天津沿海风暴潮灾害近20年统计及其成因分析

根据塘沽海洋环境监测站从1991—2010年,20a的潮汐资料进行统计分析,分析得到天津平均每年发生近10d的100cm以上的增水过程,天津沿海夏秋两季的最高潮位和平均潮位最高,且最大增水值多出现在夏秋两季,超过100cm的增水天数多集中在春季和秋冬季,并从天文潮因素、气象因素、海平面上升、地面沉降,以及地理因素等,总结了天津沿海风暴潮灾害的成因,最后提出了相应的风暴潮灾害防范措施。     

人工神经网络在风暴潮增水预报中的应用

本文根据1967～1982年问影响湛江站增水的热带气旋资料，选取了其中对湛江站增水影响比较显著的因子，运用人工神经网络中的BP算法，建立了湛江站风暴潮增水预报的人工神经网络模型，并使用贝叶斯优化算法提高了BP网络模型的预报能力，结果表明所建BP网络模型的训练拟合效果和预报效果都比较好。表明该网络模型可以用于湛江站风暴潮增水的预报。同时本文也为其它的港口、码头等近岸海洋工程风暴潮增水的预报提供了一个有效可行的方案。     

杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用

珠海及粤西海域是风暴潮灾害的多发区,本文通过杰氏风暴潮预报方法对历史上给珠海和粤西海域造成较大影响的台风增水事件进行后报试验并通过统计分析方法对原有的预报公式进行订正,总结出适合珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报公式。并利用5年的时间对珠海及粤西海域的台风增水进行试报,结果表明预报准确率分别达95.0%和87.6%,这说明订正后的公式能对珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报起到较好的预报效果。     

烟台芝罘岛海岸异常堆积事件

对烟台芝罘岛北岸海岸沉积研究发现,在坡积层中存在异常情况下形成的海滩砂砾石沉积层。异常海滩砂砾石沉积可能与历史风暴潮形成的激浪作用有关。