Runoff quality prediction from small urban catchments using SWMM

The RUNOFF block of EPA's storm water management model (SWMM) was used to simulate the quantity and quality of urban storm water runoff from four relatively small sites (i.e. 5·97–23·56 ha) in South Florida, each with a specific predominant land use (i.e. low density residential, high density residential, highway and commercial). The objectives of the study were to test the applicability of this model in small subtropical urban catchments and provide modellers with a way to select appropriate input parameters to be used in planning studies. A total of 58 storm events, measured by the US Geological Survey (USGS), provided hyetographs, hydrographs and pollutant loadings for biological oxygen demand (BOD₅), total suspended solids (TSS), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and lead (Pb), and were used for calibration of the model. Several other catchment characteristics, also measured or estimated by USGS, were used in model input preparation. Application of the model was done using the Green–Ampt equation for infiltration loss computation, a pollutant accumulation equation using a power build-up equation dependent on the number of dry days, and a power wash-off equation dependent on the predicted runoff rate. Calibrated quantity input parameters are presented and compared with suggested values in the literature. The impervious depression storage was generally found to be the most sensitive calibration parameter, followed by the Manning's roughness coefficients of conduit and overland flow, the Green–Ampt infiltration parameters and, finally, the pervious depression storage. Calibrated quality input parameters are presented in the form of regression equations, as a function of rainfall depth and the number of antecedent dry days. A total of 16 independent rainfall events were used for verification of the model, which showed a good comparison with observed data for both hydrographs and pollutant loadings. Average model predictions for the four constituent concentrations from the verification runs also showed good agreement with NURP published values in Florida and US sites. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE CONTRASTING EFFECTS OF WILDFIRE AND CLEARFELLING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF A SMALL CATCHMENT

A wildfire in an afforested research catchment presented the rare opportunity to compare the hydrological effects of wildfire with the effects of clearfelling in the same catchment in the Jonkershoek Valley, in the south-western Western Cape Province of South Africa. The timber plantation, which occupies 57% of the 2 km² catchment, had been clearfelled and re-planted to Pinus radiata roughly five years before the fire. The effects of the two treatments on total flow, storm-flow and quick-flow volumes, peak discharge and storm response ratio were determined by means of multiple regression analysis, employing the dummy variable method to test for the significance of treatments. Both clearfelling and wildfire caused significant increases in all the stream-flow variables analysed. But the clearfelling effect was dominated by large increases in total flow (96% over three years), of which storm-flow and quick-flow volumes formed only minor parts. After the wildfire, by contrast, increases in total flow were small (12%) but the storm flow increases were three- to four-fold in the first year and roughly double in the second year. The wildfire caused fire-induced water repellency in the soils which led to overland flow on mid-slope sites, where soil infiltrability normally far exceeds local rainfall intensities. It is argued that these results support the hypothesis that stream-flow generation processes were changed by the wildfire in that overland flow made a direct contribution to storm flows, but that clearfelling had no such effect. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A spreadsheet-based technique (Lotus 1-2-3) for separating tropical forest storm hydrographs using Hewlett and Hibbert's slope

The inclined line separation technique of Hewlett and Hibbert has been widely adopted to separate delayed flow from the total stream storm runoff. Presented here is the application of the technique to highly responsive storm hydrographs using a personal computer method based on a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet. Using discharge measurements (in m³ s⁻¹), catchment area (in km²) and time (in Julian days), the separation slope is adjusted on the monitor screen until the precise time at which the end of quickflow as storm runoff gives way to delayed flow may be established. The application of the inclined line method is compared with other separation techniques applied to the same dataset. The annual stream quickflow runoff for the study catchment was calculated by the four different separating lines — (i) best-fit curve, (ii) N-day after peak, (iii) inclined line and (iv) horizontal line — was 250, 312, 368, and 588 mm, amounting to 33, 31, 51 and 78 per cent respectively of the annual total stream runoff. Separation of flow by computer spreadsheet methods may be consistently applied throughout a dataset and therefore have a comparative advantage over more arbitrary techniques. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

台风过境期间辽河口滨海湿地水动力特征的数值模拟研究

本研究基于FVCOM环流模型,耦合ECMWF背景风场和Jelesnianski台风经验模型形成合成风场,对9711台风“温妮”过境辽河口区域的水动力进行模拟研究。模型通过在动量方程、湍流方程中加入附加源项来表达盐沼植被对水动力的阻碍作用。使用研究区域实测的潮位、流速、流向等数据对水动力模型进行验证,模拟结果与实测数据吻合较好。结果表明：潮滩盐沼植被对台风过境期间的潮位变化无明显影响,但对流速具有显著的衰减作用,且芦苇对潮流的衰减作用大于盐地碱蓬植被,芦苇区的速度最大衰减率达81.43%。此外,台风路径变化对辽河口湿地海域的增减水及流速影响较大,台风强度越强,局部区域造成的风暴潮增水和流速也相应越大。     

江苏中部淤泥质潮滩潮汐层理成因机理和风暴沉积判别标志

通过对江苏中部淤泥质潮滩潮汐纹层发育过程的实地观测,以及对所采样品在室内进行的落淤量的计算与颗粒的粒度、磨圆度分析等,揭示出江苏中部海岸淤泥质潮滩沉积中的潮汐层理的成因机理:毫米级薄砂泥互层层理为半日潮的产物,厘米级厚的厚砂泥互层层理为半月天文潮的产物。此外,通过对9711号台风引致的风暴潮影响前后的滩面进行了现场观测,发现江苏中部淤泥质潮滩上部存在一个即使在风暴潮期间也不发生侵蚀的地带。该带的风暴沉积与正常的潮滩沉积比较,具有粒度较粗,分选较差,磨圆稍好,递变现象明显,平行层理或波状交错层理发育比较典型的特征。     

基于离散Gabor变换的磁暴识别

以地磁秒数据为研究对象,通过离散Gabor变换将时域的地磁数据转换至二维时频面,提取Gabor变换谱图的均值和方差作为特征值,使用支持向量机实现地磁正常数据与磁暴干扰数据的自动分类识别。对5个地磁台的200组地磁秒数据进行计算分析,结果表明该方法对测试样本数据的识别率可达94%。     

一次强风暴三维结构的观测分析

2003年6月28日山东德州发生了一次降雹持续时间长、危害严重的强降雹天气过程。利用MICAPS、探空、NCEP资料,分析了降雹前的天气形势、能量场特征、含水量场。根据两部多普勒天气雷达资料,分析了雹云的演变过程及流场结构。研究表明,降雹前在降雹区上空西边低层存在高能舌,在中高层西边存在负能量平流或负能量平流中心。此次超级单体风暴过程由单个单体发展而来,具有强超级单体风暴的典型特征。该超级单体的移动方向在盛行风向右侧约20°左右,属于右移风暴。     

基于KPCA-RBF模型的风暴潮灾害经济损失预测

作为破坏性最强的海洋灾害,风暴潮灾害每年都给我国沿海地区造成了巨大的经济损失,运用科学的方法模型合理预测风暴潮灾害经济损失对指导沿海地区的防灾减灾工作意义深远。本文基于风暴潮灾害的成灾特点建立了风暴潮灾害直接经济损失预评估指标体系,由于评估指标数据高度非线性,采用核主成分分析（KPCA）对高维非线性数据进行降维优化,并利用径向基函数（RBF）神经网络对降维后的数据进行训练,从而实现对风暴潮灾害直接经济损失的预测。选取广东省1996—2018年的32个风暴潮灾害损失样本对模型进行仿真测试,结果表明,KPCA-RBF预测模型集成了核主成分分析和径向基函数神经网络的优势,预测结果精度高,学习收敛速度快,对风暴潮灾害数据序列有较好的非线性拟合能力。     

岱海地区近400年来的"尘暴"事件——来自岱海沉积物粒度的证据

根据高分辨率的岱海沉积物粒度分布的中值粒径和粗颗粒含量,结合区域降水、历史记载资料,重建了内蒙古岱海地区近４００年来发生的尘暴事件。结果表明,尘暴事件是受冬、夏季风的相对强弱制约的,大量尘暴事件频发于小冰期干冷的气候条件下,表现为中值粒径大,粗颗粒含量高,在转暖的现代气候下,尘暴事件很少,中值粒径也随之降低,但是近十几年尘暴事件又呈上升趋势,部分可能与人类活动造成的土地荒漠化有关。     

中国的人为沙漠化因素对亚洲沙尘暴的贡献

以数值模拟与大规模网络观测的对比结果为基础,通过对“去除”已经沙化土地获得的近地面层粉尘浓度的进一步分析,结合已获得的亚洲沙尘暴各源区粉尘释放量结果,提出我国的人为沙漠化因素对亚洲沙尘暴的贡献约为6％的观点。