The Linkage between Midwinter Suppression of the North Pacific Storm Track and Atmospheric Circulation Features in the Northern Hemisphere

The midwinter suppression(MWS) of the North Pacific storm track(NPST) has been an active research topic for decades. Based on the daily-mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2018, this study investigates the MWS-related atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Northern Hemisphere by regression analysis with respect to a new MWS index, which may shed more light on this difficult issue. The occurrence frequency of the MWS of the upper-tropospheric NPST is more than 0.8 after the mid-1980 s. The MWS is accompanied by significantly positive sea-level pressure anomalies in Eurasia and negative anomalies over the North Pacific, which correspond to a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon. The intensified East Asian trough and atmospheric blocking in the North Pacific as well as the significantly negative low-level air temperature anomalies, lying upstream of the MNPST, are expected to be distinctly associated with the MWS. However, the relationship between the MWS and low-level atmospheric baroclinicity is somewhat puzzling.From the diagnostics of the eddy energy budget, it is identified that the inefficiency of the barotropic energy conversion related to the barotropic governor mechanism does not favor the occurrence of the MWS. In contrast, weakened baroclinic energy conversion, buoyancy conversion, and generation of eddy available potential energy by diabatic heating are conducive to the occurrence of the MWS. In addition, Ural blocking in the upstream region of the MNPST may be another candidate mechanism associated with the MWS.     

青岛近海台风暴潮灾害分析

分析了青岛沿海地区的台风暴潮灾害状况,阐明了潮灾成因,明确指出风暴潮在沿海自然灾害中占有重要的地位。     

The Most Geomagnetically Disturbed 24 Hours

Geomagnetically disturbed periods, characterized by the maximum average 24-hour global disturbances are considered. Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values is used to predict the occurrence of major magnetic storm periods. A geomagnetic storm similar to the one recorded on March 13 - 14, 1998, would be expected to occur within the next 13 solar cycles. The present analysis corroborates the substantial increase of the level of magnetic disturbances from solar cycle to solar cycle.     

WSR-88D多普勒天气雷达冰雹探测算法及评价

详细介绍了ＷＳＲ－８８Ｄ多普勒天气雷达冰雹探测算法的设计,使用,并进一步分析该算法存在的优点和不中,最后,指出业务运行中改进的使用步骤和方法,有效地提高了ＷＳＲ－８８Ｄ多普勒天气雷达探测,预报冰雹的能力。     

连云港核电站厂址海域1939年风暴潮水位的确定

在新建滨海工程时往往遇到历史上的最高潮位资料不详,不满足设计计算的需求,这就需要通过现场调查找到当年大潮的蛛丝马迹来反算当年的潮高,而这一方法又往往由于高潮发生的年代久远,证据混乱,互相矛盾而造成结论不可信。用数学手段对工程海域历史上的大潮过程进行模拟,从而确认调查结论的可信程度是解决上述问题的一个有效的手段。本文是一个成功运用上述方法确定历史最高水位实例。     

基于MODIS数据定量判识沙尘暴方法的对比研究

利用MODIS数据,结合具体实例,对比研究当前几种利用光谱特征定量判识沙尘暴的方法。从理论上剖析各方法的原理,分析其优劣,并提出一套新的算法的组合方式。研究结果表明,新的组合算法有不小的改进：①大大降低了单一算法在不同时间或地区图像中阈值取值不稳定的影响,减少了图像噪声造成的误判,增强了其通用性和稳定性;②明显减弱了太阳光、地表温度等条件的影响,准确排除沙漠对于判识的干扰;③简单实用,适合业务应用。     

太阳活动周磁暴与亚洲M_S 7.0以上地震活动关系

将1996—2015年太阳黑子数、强磁暴和M_S≥7.0亚洲浅源地震,按Dst指数大小对磁暴进行分类和统计,按震级大小对地震进行分类统计,结果发现,在1996—2015年太阳活动周下降年易发生大磁暴,且M_S≥7.0地震年发生率明显高于太阳活动周上升年、极大年和极小年。     

Rapid adjustment of shoreline behavior to changing seasonality of storms: observations and modelling at an open‐coast beach

An 8‐year time series of weekly shoreline data collected at the Gold Coast, Australia, is used to examine the temporal evolution of a beach, focusing on the frequency response of the shoreline to time‐varying wave height and period. Intriguingly, during 2005 the movement of the shoreline at this site changed from a seasonally‐dominated mode (annual cycle) to a storm‐dominated (~monthly) mode. This unexpected observation provides the opportunity to explore the drivers of the observed shoreline response. Utilizing the calibration of an equilibrium shoreline model to explore the time‐scales of underlying beach behavior, the best‐fit frequency response (days^?1) is shown to be an order of magnitude higher post‐2004, suggesting that a relatively subtle change in wave forcing can drive a significant change in shoreline response. Analysis of available wave data reveals a statistically significant change in the seasonality of storms, from predominantly occurring at the start of the year pre‐2005 to being relatively consistent throughout the year after this time. The observed change from one mode of shoreline variability to another suggests that beaches can adapt relatively quickly to subtle changes in the intra‐annual distribution of wave energy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hillslope hydrology in tropical rainforest steeplands in Brunei

Many remaining areas of tropical rainforest in south‐east Asia are located on landscapes dominated by deep valleys and very steep slopes. Now that logging activities are extending into these steeplands, it is essential to understand how the natural rainforest system behaves if any kind of realistic assessment of the effects of such disturbance is to be made. This paper examines the hydrological behaviour of an undisturbed rainforest system on steep topography in the Temburong District of Brunei, north‐west Borneo. The physical and hydrological properties of the regolith material are generally typical of tropical residual soils. The regolith has a clay texture and a low dry bulk density beneath a superficial litter/organic horizon. The infiltration capacity of the surface soil was several hundred mm h⁻¹. That of the exposed mineral subsoil was an order of magnitude less, similar to the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sat) of around 180 mm h⁻¹ at a depth of 150 cm. There was no indication that K_sat reduced with depth except very near the bedrock interface. Soil tensions were measured using a two‐dimensional array of tensiometers on a 30° slope. During dry season conditions, infiltrating rain‐water contributes to soil moisture, and drying of the soil is dominated by transpiration losses. During wet season conditions, perched water tables quickly develop during heavy rainfall, giving rise to the rapid production of return flow in ephemeral channels. No infiltration excess or saturation overland flow was observed on hillslopes away from channel margins. Subsurface storm flow combined with return flow produce stream flow hydrographs with high peak discharges and very short lag times. Storm event runoff coefficients are estimated to be as high as 40%. It is concluded that the most distinctive feature of the hydrology of this ‘steepland rainforest’ is the extremely ‘flashy’ nature of the catchment runoff regime produced by the combination of thin but very permeable regolith on steep slopes. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Runoff quality prediction from small urban catchments using SWMM

The RUNOFF block of EPA's storm water management model (SWMM) was used to simulate the quantity and quality of urban storm water runoff from four relatively small sites (i.e. 5·97–23·56 ha) in South Florida, each with a specific predominant land use (i.e. low density residential, high density residential, highway and commercial). The objectives of the study were to test the applicability of this model in small subtropical urban catchments and provide modellers with a way to select appropriate input parameters to be used in planning studies. A total of 58 storm events, measured by the US Geological Survey (USGS), provided hyetographs, hydrographs and pollutant loadings for biological oxygen demand (BOD₅), total suspended solids (TSS), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and lead (Pb), and were used for calibration of the model. Several other catchment characteristics, also measured or estimated by USGS, were used in model input preparation. Application of the model was done using the Green–Ampt equation for infiltration loss computation, a pollutant accumulation equation using a power build-up equation dependent on the number of dry days, and a power wash-off equation dependent on the predicted runoff rate. Calibrated quantity input parameters are presented and compared with suggested values in the literature. The impervious depression storage was generally found to be the most sensitive calibration parameter, followed by the Manning's roughness coefficients of conduit and overland flow, the Green–Ampt infiltration parameters and, finally, the pervious depression storage. Calibrated quality input parameters are presented in the form of regression equations, as a function of rainfall depth and the number of antecedent dry days. A total of 16 independent rainfall events were used for verification of the model, which showed a good comparison with observed data for both hydrographs and pollutant loadings. Average model predictions for the four constituent concentrations from the verification runs also showed good agreement with NURP published values in Florida and US sites. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.