PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF INTEGRATED GPS/GLONASS CARRIER PHASE-BASED POSITIONING

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Evolutionary properties of stochastic models of earthquake accelerograms: Their dependence on magnitude and distance

An approach to generate artificial earthquakeaccelerograms on hard soil sites is presented. Eachtime-history of accelerations is considered as arealization of a non-stationary gaussian stochasticprocess, with statistical parameters depending onmagnitude and source-to-site distance. In order tolink the values of these parameters for each groundmotion record with the corresponding magnitude andsource-to-site distance, semi-empirical functionalrelations called generalized attenuationfunctions are determined. The set of realground-motion time histories used to obtain thesefunctions correspond to shocks generated at differentsources and recorded at different sites in thevicinity of the southern coast of Mexico. The resultsshow significant dispersion in the parameters of themodel adopted, which reflect that associated with thereal earthquakes included in the sample employed.The problem of conditional simulation of artificialacceleration time histories for prescribed intensitiesis briefly presented, but its detailed study is leftfor a companion paper. The criteria and modelsproposed are applied to generate two families ofartificial acceleration records for recurrenceintervals of 100 and 200 years at a specific sitelocated in the region under study. The results shownin this article correspond to acceleration timehistories recorded on firm ground for earthquakesgenerated at the subduction zone that runs along thesouthern coast of Mexico, and cannot be generalized tocases of earthquakes generated at other sources orrecorded at other types of local conditions. Thismeans that the methods and functional forms presentedhere are applicable to these other cases, but thevalues of the parameters that characterize thosefunctions may differ from those presented here.     

边坡稳定可靠性的随机有限元分析

随机有限元法可以处理土性参数的变异性和空间相关性。对二阶摄动随机有限元法的摄动理论和程序进行了研究，提出了偏导矩阵的组集方法，采用正态分布随机变量的正交变换法来提高计算效率。考虑土性参数随机场作用和土性指标之间的互相关性，建立边坡局部抗剪和总体稳定性可靠度的随机有限元分析模型，对某实际土坡进行了可靠度计算，计算结果较为符合实际。     

Upscaling Uncertain Permeability Using Small Cell Renormalization

Sedimentary rocks have structures on all length scales from the millimeter to the kilometer. These structures are generally associated with variations in rock permeability. These need to be modeled if we are to make predictions about fluid flow through the rock. However, existing computers are not powerful enough for us to be able to represent all scales of heterogeneity explicitly in our fluid flow models—hence, we need to upscale. Small cell renormalization is a fast method for upscaling permeability, derived from an analogue circuit of resistors. However, it assumes that the small scale permeability distribution is known. In practice, this is unlikely. The only information available about small scale properties is either qualitative, derived from the depositional setting of the reservoir, or local to the wells as a result of coring or logging. The influence of small scale uncertainty on large scale properties is usually modelled by the Monte Carlo method. This is time-consuming and inaccurate if not enough realisations are used. This paper describes a new implementation of renormalization, which enables the direct upscaling of uncertain small-scale permeabilities to produce the statistical properties of the equivalent coarse grid. This is achieved by using a perturbation expansion of the resistor-derived equation. The method is verified by comparison with numerical simulations using the Monte Carlo method. The prediction of expected large-scale permeability and its standard deviation are shown to be accurate for small cell standard deviations of up to 40% of the mean cell value, using just the first nonzero term of the perturbation expansion. Inclusion of higher order terms allows larger standard deviations to be modeled accurately. Evaluation of cross-terms allows correlations of actual cell values, over and above the background structure of mean cell values. The perturbation method is significantly faster than conventional Monte Carlo simulation. It needs just two calculations whereas the Monte Carlo method needs many thousands of realisations to be generated and renormalized to converge. This results in significant savings in computer time.     

Stochastic sketching of infiltration-advance isochrones

A technique has been developed for predicting the irregular advance pattern often observed as water spreads on the surface of the ground. The technique is a combination of stochastic sketching, potential theory, probability theory, and a mass balance equation in the form of an advance equation. The technique can be used on flat as well as sloping terrain and addresses any form of obstructions or constraints to the flow of the water. The stochastic sketching portion of the technique uses cellular automata with transition probability movement rules to sketch the dynamics of small volume water elements in the defined environment. Randomly selected small volume flow path segments are computed and plotted. The envelope of these segments defines the wetted area and the advance front. Several examples are presented showing the patterns produced for various situations.     

分数布朗运动的小波分析

给出了分数布朗运动的连续和离散小波分析，讨论了有关的性质，并将结果用于分维估值、分数布朗运动小波变换系数的相关性研究等方面．     

1991年梅雨期中冷空气活动的个例分析

通过对1991年7月4—6日江淮地区大暴雨过程中冷空气的轨迹分析表明，来自西北方向的冷空气造成了冷暖空气在长江流域的对峙和高原东侧50hPa槽的发展，后者又进而促使了梅雨锋上的气旋发展。     

Interpolation of runoff applying objective methods

The paper treats the problem of interpolating annual runoff from regular streamflow measurements in a regional scale applying objective methods. These methods are adapted to point processes like temperature and precipitation. Modifications are needed to account for the fact that streamflow is an integrated process following the hierarchical structure of river systems. The most straightforward method is therefore to relate the interpolation to the existing river network. For theoretical reasons it is preferable to interpolate the lateral inflow rather than the flow in the river itself. Procedures for the interpolation with the different approaches are developed and discussed. Special attention is put on the question how the equation of continuity can be satisfied. The Laagen drainage basin in southern Norway is used as a test area. The data consist of annual observations of streamflow and digital map information on river networks and drainage basin boundaries.     

岩溶坝区透水参数的随机模型

岩溶坝区的渗透特性受高应力场的作用,使其固有的非均质各向异性更趋复杂,采用确定性的方法不能准确的描述其本质特性。本文在对岩溶坝区透水性随机场进行分析的基础上,提出了渗透随机性的数学描述。考察岩溶坝区主要的两场作用,即渗流与应力场的耦合。基于Taylor随机有限元建立了渗流应力耦合的随机微分方程格式,并对耦合随机模型反演求解渗透参数提出了思路。