中国入境旅游的经济增长效应与空间差异性研究

在旅游业与经济增长作用关系分析基础上,探究了旅游溢出理论,将其产生机制归纳为知识溢出、市场溢出和竞争效应3个方面。实证分析中,构建了包括入境旅游、物质资本、人力资本、科技创新和对外开放的分析框架,运用中国大陆31个省域2000~2014年面板数据对入境旅游的经济增长效应进行实证检验。全局分析得出中国入境旅游在邻近省市以集聚与合作为主,邻近省域入境旅游发展对本地经济增长具有辐射带动作用,且这种空间溢出效应大于直接效应;入境旅游业发达的地区,入境旅游的经济增长效应更大。局部分析发现,随着入境旅游的发展,入境旅游的经济增长效应不断强化,中部部分地区提升幅度最大;入境旅游的经济增长效应存在空间差异性,东部沿海地区贡献最大,西北地区相对最小。     

转型背景下广东省FDI与经济增长的关系——基于协整分析和VECM模型的检验

随着广东省对外开放程度的不断提升,外商直接投资已成为拉动区域经济增长的重要外部引擎,并对区域经济转型与结构调整产生显著影响。选取1979—2014年广东省外商直接投资(FDI)和生产总值(GDP)数据并构建VECM模型,采用协整检验、脉冲响应、格兰杰检验等方法研究FDI和经济增长之间的长短期关系。结果表明:长期中,广东省外商直接投资与区域经济增长间具有正向的稳定均衡关系;短期中,外商直接投资对经济增长的影响程度比较显著,成为影响广东省经济增长的重要外向型因素。     

A spatio-temporal analysis of academic performance at the Basic Education Certificate Examination in Ghana

Over the last decade, Ghana has more than tripled investment in its basic education system. Consequently, the country has made huge educational gains, primarily in providing universal access to basic education. However, many stakeholders are worried that academic performance is lagging because of disproportional attention to accessing basic education. Discussion of these concerns is hampered by ongoing disagreement about the true trajectory of academic performance at the basic education level and the widespread nature of students' lagging academic performance. In part, this disagreement stems from the failure of empirical studies to comprehensively examine trends in academic performance standards at the basic education level by concurrently considering a geographical and longitudinal perspective. Thus, this study examines the spatio-temporal trends of academic performance at the junior high school level since 2009 by using multilevel growth curve modeling, spatial statistics, and district-level longitudinal data. Results reveal 3 statistically distinct trajectories of academic performance: erratic, accelerating, and decelerating changes. Results also show that rural–urban gaps explain 31% of the performance trajectories, a trend which is expected to persist in the long term. In addition, we find extreme variations in academic performance within rural areas. Given the varying trajectories and geographical variability in academic performance, we suggest a localized approach to addressing challenges of low academic achievement at the basic education level in Ghana.     

土壤微生物结皮对两种一年生植物幼苗存活和生长的影响

在温室实验和野外调查中,分析了两种一年生草本植物小画眉草(Eragrostics poaeoides)和雾冰藜(Bassia dasyphylla)的幼苗在苔藓结皮、藻结皮和流沙上的存活和生长状况。两种植物的幼苗存活率均表现出在苔藓结皮上最高而在流沙基质中最低。两种植物幼苗存活率与土壤表层水分含量呈正相关关系。与小画眉草相比较,雾冰藜的幼苗在萌发后根生长较为迅速,在3种土壤类型中和干湿两种水分处理下,雾冰藜较小画眉草均具有较高的幼苗存活率。在干燥处理下,生长在有结皮土壤中的两种植物的植株干重大约是生长在无结皮土壤中植株的5倍。增加水分能降低植株幼苗的死亡率,促进植株生长;增加水分也能在一定程度上减弱因土壤基质差异对幼苗存活和幼苗生长的影响。因此,在自然状况下年降雨量的多少和分配状况的差异可能会影响这两种植物每年幼苗存活率和生长状况的差异,进而会影响到这两个种群在人工固沙区盖度和分布格局的差异性。     

Compact,concurrent, and contiguous: smart growth and 50 years of residential planning in the Toronto region

In this article, we use parcel-based land-use data to analyze 50 years of residential development in the Toronto region. We test two hypotheses: (1) Toronto’s form does not conform to conventional definitions of suburban sprawl and (2) Toronto’s suburban development shows high levels of continuity over time with relatively high densities and mixed housing types. Contrary to recent research suggesting a convergence of urban forms among North American metropolitan regions, Ontario’s robust planning system has created a distinctive, highly consistent pattern of residential development that has, for half a century, achieved many of the core goals of smart growth including relatively compact, contiguous, and concurrent development. This form continues to be automobile dependent, however, and is not producing many of the benefits ascribed to smart growth. Rather than continuing to adopt United States-inspired smart growth policies, a more ambitious set of initiatives will be required to address current regional challenges.     

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.     

MASCULINISM,POWER, AND DISCOURSES OF EXCLUSION IN BRIAN BERRY’S “SCIENTIFIC” GEOGRAPHY

This paper examines the impact of changes in industry mix, changes in technology, differential plant growth, plant entry and plant exit on metropolitan labor productivity growth between 1963 and 1997. Analysis is based upon unpublished plant-level data from the United States Bureau of the Census. We show that manufacturing productivity varies markedly between metropolitan areas in the United States. The most influential components of productivity growth are technological changes within incumbent plants and changes in industry mix. Significant differences in the relative contributions of these components of productivity change exist across metropolitan areas. Regional differences in rates of plant openings and plant closures also exert considerable impact on metropolitan productivity improvement.     

湖北省棉花产量的变化与棉田布局的战略调整*

本文揭示了湖北省棉花亩产的增长具有北高南低的特点,分析了鄂北地区种植棉花的自然优势和经济效盆大于江汉平原,从而提出湖北省棉花北移的战略调整的设想。     

Book Reviews

Books Reviewed Colbert C. Held, Middle East Patterns: Places, People, and Politics Barbara A. Weightman, Dragons and Tigers: A Geography of South, East, and Southeast Asia Henry J. Bruman, Alcohol in Ancient Mexico Brian W. Blouet, Geopolitics and Globalization in the Twentieth Century M. A. B. Siddique (ed.), International Migration into the 21st Century: Essays in Honour of Reginald Appleyard Michael R. Haines and Richard H. Steckel (eds.), A Population History of North America Emilio Moran, Human Adaptability: An Introduction to Ecological Anthropology Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era Susan B. Marriott and Jan Alexander (eds.), Floodplains: Interdisciplinary Approaches William S.Logan, Hanoi: Biography of a City Alex Krieger and David Cobb (eds.) with Amy Turner, Mapping Boston Eric Sandweiss, St. Louis: The Evolution of an American Urban Landscape Carl Abbott, Greater Portland: Urban Life and Landscape in the Pacific Northwest Arthur D. Murphy, Colleen Blanchard and Jennifer A. Hill (eds.), Latino Workers in the Contemporary South Yanek Mieczkowski, The Routledge Historical Atlas of Presidential Elections     

一次暴雨过程多普勒天气雷达风场资料分析

通过对１９９御７月１４日的大－暴雨天气过程所获取的３８２４多普勒天气雷达平均径向风场资料的分析，发现边界层急流与较强的降水相伴。表明多普勒天气雷达对中小尺度天气系统和灾害性天气预报有预警作用。