边界层参数化方案对暴雨数值模拟的影响

大气边界层(Atmospheric Boundary Layer,ABL)是自由大气和地球表面(陆地和海洋)的连接层,它对于降水的发生发展有重要影响。ABL高度是ABL的一个重要参数,主要应用于大气数值天气(或气候)模式中的ABL过程的参数化,获取准确的ABL高度数据对于提高数值天气预报模式、空气污染物预报模式等的预报精度具有重要作用。概述了利用常规探空资料、卫星遥感资料、气溶胶后向散射资料、全球导航卫星系统GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System)掩星探测资料等数据估计ABL高度的主要方法及进展情况,提出在同时具有多种观测资料时如何处理ABL高度的三个基本原则,并以目前广泛应用的数值天气预报模式WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting)为例重点介绍ABL高度数据在数值天气(或气候)预报模式中的应用,对相关的发展情况进行了总结展望。

     

CHARACTERISTICS OF ZONAL ANOMALY OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN CHINA

The characteristics of zonal anomaly and change rule of temporal distribution of annual precipitation in the northeastern China are revealed in this paper with EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) and REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function) methods and results are drawn in the standard relief maps with GIS technology for practical application. Data used in the study were obtained from 208 meteorological stations over the northeastern China from 1961 to 2001. EOF results show that the first 3 loading vectors could give entire spatial anomaly structure of annual precipitation. In the Northeast Plain including the Songneng Plain and the Liaohe Plain, there is a regional compatibility (whether wet or dry) of annual precipitation change and this precipitation pattern has occurred since the late 1980s to the present. There also exist annual precipitation patterns of wet (or dry) in south and dry (or wet) in north and wet (or dry) in east and dry (or wet) in west. REOF results display 8 principal precipitation anomaly areas by the first 8 rotated loading vectors: the west plain, the Liaodong hills, the Sanjiang Plain, the Liaoxi hills,the Changbai Mountains, the Hulun Buir Plateau, the southwest plateau and the Liaodong Peninsula.     

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石英砂扫描电镜在漓江“泥砾”成因中的应用

本文根据扫描电镜对从漓江河谷钻孔中的泥砾层取得的481粒石英砂表面形态特证研究结果:石英砂多数颗粒保持棱角状外形并遭受不同程度的磨蚀,具阶状贝壳断口,平直或弧形刮削面和多向擦痕,沿解理面破碎呈“V”字形沟和撞击碟形坑,以及微溶蚀孔、隙、蜂窝状溶孔群和SiO_2再沉积等表面形态结构特征。认为它是在第四纪古地理湿热气候条件下泥石流沉积的产物,物源可能来自境内或周边的泥盆系砂岩和境外的花岗岩。     

长江三峡及邻区板内中强地震的孕震动力学分析

本文在研究长江三峡及邻区地壳─上地幔结构和现今地壳重力场基础上，分析了该区板内中强地震的孕震动力学过程，探讨了整体上相对稳定的长江三峡及邻区孕育和发生中强地震的动力学机制，并提出了该区板内中强地震预测的动力学标志。     

人类活动对塔里木河年径流影响量的估算

塔里木河流域与环境的研究，一直是近年来新疆环境演化和可持续发展研究的热点问题。大规模的区域开发活动对该流域生态环境产生了根本性的影响，区域整体生态环境趋于恶化。本文通过对年径流量累积曲线和年径流量的相关分析，估算出人类活动对塔里木河各河段的年径流量变化及其对生态环境造成的影响。     

青海省气候异常偏暖的成因分析

在全球气候变化的背景下,1998年青海省创下了有气象记录以来最暖的一年。从资料分析得知:全球气候变暖及1998年全球范围内部分地区环流异常,以及近几年来省内干旱、水土流失、土地荒漠化等因素是导致1998年我省异常偏暖气候的主要成因。     

The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River. Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002. The main findings are as follows: (1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics. (2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan, Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral, implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions, and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables. (3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic. The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002, but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.     

基于矢量匹配-劳斯法的群桩阻抗改进模型

采用薄层法算出群桩基础的频域阻抗,将群桩阻抗等效于一个单输入单输出系统,并表示为一个复数的频域传递函数。基于矢量匹配法（VF法）,通过对传递函数拟合得到任意分层地基的群桩阻抗函数的集总参数形式。采用VF法对整体频域拟合,可以得到多项分式分式阻抗形式,进而扩展成为Wu-Lee模型。结果表明,VF法拟合得到的动力柔度函数可以精确地匹配分层地基动力柔度函数,由于多项分式的形式可以直接扩展成为Wu-Lee集总参数模型,且数值稳定。对于高频阻抗拟合需要采用高阶数,进行劳斯（Routh）降阶,得到较好的效果。     

祁连山南麓退耕地主要植物群落植冠层的截留性能

退耕地人工群落植冠层的截留能力,是群落生态效益的重要组成部分,这一研究不仅可以掌握退耕还林还草工程作用的机理,还可以更好地指导工程实践,促进工程建设步伐。通过“简易吸水法”,可以快速掌握退耕地植冠层的最大截留潜力。青海省大通县退耕较早、平均年龄约10a以上的青海云杉、华北落叶松等几种人工群落,它们的林冠截留量较高,平均达1．93mm,为当地3种截留量最高、林龄50a之上天然群落的61％。青海云杉、华北落叶松、白桦、青杨、中国沙棘等退耕地人工群落的截留量,基本上显示出与林龄之间呈线性或Cubic、Quadratic正相关关系。在植物群落分层截留、消化吸收降雨的这一空间垂直序列中,植冠层截留量虽然较低,平均仅1．29mm(0．25～2．38mm),但植冠层的主要作用还在于减轻、缓冲雨水直接打击地面,改变降水的侵蚀性危害,而这些作用要远远高于截留量自身的区区数量。