Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides in El Salvador using logistic regression

This work has evaluated the probability of earthquake-triggered landslide occurrence in the whole of El Salvador, with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and a logistic regression model. Slope gradient, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, lithology, land use, and terrain roughness are the predictor variables used to determine the dependent variable of occurrence or non-occurrence of landslides within an individual grid cell. The results illustrate the importance of terrain roughness and soil type as key factors within the model — using only these two variables the analysis returned a significance level of 89.4%. The results obtained from the model within the GIS were then used to produce a map of relative landslide susceptibility.     

The pattern,evolution, and mechanism of venture capital flows in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,China

As an important innovation flow, venture capital has been examined in urban network research. However, the segmentation of capital categories and the cross-scale connection of capital remain scarcely analyzed. This study focuses on the structure and industry differentiation of venture capital flows in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA) and its cross-scale network characteristics. Based on a venture capital database covering capital amount, investment subject address information,...     

Crack nucleation in saturated porous media

Crack nucleation has been the subject of important contributions in the last two last decades. However, it seems that few attention has been granted to the case of saturated porous media. This is the question addressed in the present paper which is devoted to nucleation in traction mode. From a physical point of view, nucleation is a sudden phenomenon, so that the material response is both adiabatic and undrained. In the spirit of the variational approach, the nucleated crack is viewed as the final state of a region of space in which the material undergoes a full damage process. In traction mode, the opening of a saturated crack in undrained condition induces a drop of fluid pressure. In case of low fluid compressibility, the presence of the fluid delays the brittle failure usually associated with nucleation, as long as the fluid pressure remains above the saturation vapor pressure. Nucleation is therefore possible only if a partial vaporization of the fluid takes place.     

Brazilian health regions and scales: A geographical perspective

Abstract:  This paper offers a geographical perspective on the way in which health regions have been defined and established in São Paulo as part of overall Brazilian health policy. To accomplish this, I first situate the Brazilian case in the international debate over the regionalization of health services. Second, I examine health regionalization in the case of São Paulo and show how the process is dynamic and complex, involving geographical scales that go well beyond the administrative boundaries of Brazilian municipalities.     

考虑空间相关尺度特征的细观力学模型及其应用

天然岩石材料内部存在各种缺陷,在微、细观尺度表现出高度的非均质特性。基于连续介质力学框架,采用非线性标量损伤本构关系描述岩石材料的变形与破坏行为,建立了岩石细观损伤本构模型,并在常规Weibull随机分布模型基础上,引入空间相关尺度因子以模拟实际岩石材料各项物理力学指标具有的空间相关特征。选取典型岩石单轴拉伸试验算例,分析随机场内空间相关尺度因子的变化对试样荷载-加口张开度关系曲线以及破坏行为的影响。结果表明,考虑岩石材料各项物理力学指标的空间相关尺度特征对评价其力学指标的离散性以及破坏形态特征有着较显著的影响。     

基于滑体渗透性与库水变动的滑坡稳定性变化规律研究

在三峡工程试运行期间,库区滑坡因地质结构和渗透性的不同,其变形情况存在明显差异,因此,除研究滑坡地质结构外,还应加强不同渗透性滑坡在库水变动下的稳定性响应规律研究。以三峡水库库首区黄荆树滑坡实例为计算模型,分析库水位在175～145 m间以0.5～2.0 m/d变化时4种不同渗透性滑坡的渗流场特征;再以库水影响系数? 和稳定性变化率为评价指标,研究在滑体渗透性和库水变动条件下的滑坡稳定性变化规律。研究表明,当库水影响系数? 在-0.107～-0.322时,稳定性变化率? 最大,且随? 减小滑坡稳定性增加率? 减小;当? 在-0.644～-769.231时,随? 减小稳定性增加率? 变化不明显;当? 在576.923～769.231时,库水位上升时滑坡稳定性降低较少;当? 在0.107～384.615时,影响系数? 与稳定性变化率? 的相关性不明显。其结果对于库区滑坡的监测预警有较强的应用价值     

Investigation on strength and stability of jointed rock mass using three‐dimensional numerical manifold method

This paper proposes a numerical model for jointed rock masses within the 3‐D numerical manifold method (NMM) framework equipped with a customized contact algorithm. The strength of rock sample containing a few sets of discontinuities is first investigated. The results of models with simple geometries are compared with the available analytical solutions to verify the developed computer code, whereas models with complex geometries are simulated to better understand the fundamental behavior and failure mechanism of jointed rock mass. Furthermore, the stability of jointed rock mass in an underground excavation is studied, where rock failure process is determined by the 3‐D NMM simulation. The simulation results provide valuable guidance on excavation process design and stabilization design in rock engineering practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomechanical modelling to assess fault integrity at the CO2CRC Otway Project,Australia

This paper presents the first published 3D geomechanical modelling study of the CO2CRC Otway Project, located in the state of Victoria, Australia. The results of this work contribute to one of the main objectives of the CO2CRC, which is to demonstrate the feasibility of CO₂ storage in a depleted gas reservoir. With this aim in mind, a one-way coupled flow and geomechanics model is presented, with the capability of predicting changes to the in situ stress field caused by changes in reservoir pressure owing to CO₂ production and injection. A parametric study investigating the pore pressures required to reactivate key, reservoir-bounding faults has been conducted, and the results from the numerical simulation and analytical analysis are compared. The numerical simulation indicates that the critical pore fluid pressure to cause fault reactivation is 1.15 times the original pressure as opposed to 1.5 times for the comparable analytical model. Possible reasons for the differences between the numerical and analytical models can be ascribed to the higher degree of complexity incorporated in the numerical model. Heterogeneity in terms of lateral variations of hydrological and mechanical parameters, effect of topography, presence of faults and interaction between cells are considered to be the main sources for the different estimation of critical pore pressure. The numerical model, which incorporates this greater complexity, is able then to better describe the state of stress that acts in the subsurface compared with a simple 1D analytical model. Moreover, the reactivation pressures depend mainly on the state of stress described; therefore we suggest that numerical models be performed when possible.     

某水电站滑坡形成机制及稳定性分析

该水电站滑坡变形主要表现在滑坡的前、后缘及其两侧,目前该滑坡已处于不稳定状态,因此对该滑坡的形成机制及稳定性进行分析就尤为重要。该滑坡的形成机制为蠕滑—拉裂式,稳定性的地质分析和定量计算都表明:该滑坡天然状态下处于稳定状态,持续降雨状态下处于不稳定状态。     

An analytical solution for rainfall infiltration into an unsaturated infinite slope and its application to slope stability analysis

Surficial slope failures in residual soils are common in tropical and subtropical regions as a result of rainfall infiltration. This study develops an analytical solution for simulating rainfall infiltration into an infinite unsaturated soil slope. The analytical solution is based on the general partial differential equation for water flow through unsaturated soils. It can accept soil–water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function of the exponential form into account. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the assumptions of the analytical solution and demonstrate that the proposed analytical solution is acceptable for the coarse soils with low air entry values. The pore‐water pressure (pwp) distributions obtained from the analytical solution can be incorporated into a limit equilibrium method to do infinite slope stability analysis for a rain‐induced shallow slip. The analysis method takes into account the influence of the water content change on unit weight and hence on factor of safety. A series of analytical parametric analyses have been performed using the developed model. The analyses indicate that when the residual soil slope, consisting of a completely decomposed granite layer underlain by a less permeable layer, is subjected to a continuous heavy rainfall, the loss of negative pwp and the reduction in factor of safety were found to be most significant for the shallow soil layer and during the first 12 h. The antecedent and subsequent rainfall intensity, depth of a less permeable layer and slope angle all have a significant influence on the pwp response and hence the slope stability. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.