湘南地区红黏土动态回弹模量试验与预估模型研究

湘南地区广泛分布红黏土,它具有天然含水率高、孔隙比大及结构性强等特点,可用于特殊路基填料。为获得红黏土的动态回弹性能,利用动三轴试验研究了偏应力、围压应力和体应力对红黏土动态回弹模量的影响。结果表明：动态回弹模量随围压和压实度的提高而增大,随偏应力的增大而减小;动态回弹模量受含水率影响较大,并在最佳含水率附近达到最大值。基于试验揭示的动态回弹模量与应力的相关性,采用3种应力相关的典型动态回弹模量预估模型对试验数据进行回归分析,进而遴选出最佳预估模型。误差分析表明,对于湘南地区红黏土,考虑偏应力和围压应力的回弹模量预估模型具有更高的决定系数,能更好地拟合红黏土的动态回弹模量。动态回弹模量试验结果和遴选的预估模型将为湘南地区红黏土路基设计提供试验和理论依据。     

Statistical models for shear strength of RC beam‐column joints using machine‐learning techniques

This paper proposes a new set of probabilistic joint shear strength models using the conventional multiple linear regression method, and advanced machine‐learning methods of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and symbolic regression (SR). In order to achieve high‐fidelity regression models with reduced model errors and bias, this study constructs extensive experimental databases for reinforced and unreinforced concrete joints by collecting existing beam‐column joint subassemblage tests from multiple sources. Various influential parameters that affect joint shear strength such as material properties, design parameters, and joint configuration are investigated through tests of statistical significance. After performing a set of regression analyses, the comparison of simulation results indicates that MARS approach is the best estimation method. Moreover, the accuracy of analytical predictions of the derived MARS model is compared with that of existing joint shear strength relationships. The comparison results show that the proposed model is more accurate compared to existing relationships. This joint shear strength prediction model can be readily implemented into joint response models for evaluation of earthquake performance and inelastic responses of building frames. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation

In this study we develop an empirical method to estimate the volume threshold for predicting coseismic landslide dam formation using landscape parameters obtained from digital elevation models (DEMs). We hypothesize that the potential runout and volume of landslides, together with river features, determine the likelihood of the formation of a landslide dam. To develop this method, a database was created by randomly selecting 140 damming and 200 non‐damming landslides from 501 landslide dams and > 60 000 landslides induced by the M_w 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used this database to parameterize empirical runout models by stepwise multivariate regression. We find that factors controlling landslide runout are landslide initiation volume, landslide type, internal relief (H) and the H/L ratio (between H and landslide horizontal distance to river, L). In order to obtain a first volume threshold for a landslide to reach a river, the runout regression equations were converted into inverse volume equations by taking the runout to be the distance to river. A second volume threshold above which a landslide is predicted to block a river was determined by the correlation between river width and landslide volume of the known damming landslides. The larger of these two thresholds was taken as the final damming threshold. This method was applied to several landslide types over a fine geographic grid of assumed initiation points in a selected catchment. The overall prediction accuracy was 97.4% and 86.0% for non‐damming and damming landslides, respectively. The model was further tested by predicting the damming landslides over the whole region, with promising results. We conclude that our method is robust and reliable for the Wenchuan event. In combination with pre‐event landslide susceptibility and frequency–size assessments, it can be used to predict likely damming locations of future coseismic landslides, thereby helping to plan emergency response. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

公众气象服务支付意愿影响因素研究

基于中国气象局2008年调查数据,运用二分Logistic回归、最优尺度回归和判定树CRT模型分析了公众气象服务支付意愿的影响因素。结果表明：个体因素中年龄与文化程度对公众气象服务支付意愿（包括是否支付与支付多少）有显著影响,而性别因素只对支付多少有显著影响,对是否支付没有显著影响;收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿有显著影响;关注程度、天气预报准确性、天气预报及时性、气象服务总体满意度对公众气象服务支付数额多少有显著影响,但影响程度很小;个体因素与收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿影响程度较高,而心理因素影响程度很小。     

宁波市地下水位动态与地面沉降预测分析

为了准确预测分析宁波市地下水位动态与地面沉降的发展趋势,建立了宁波市第四纪松散沉积层孔隙地下水流三维数值模拟模型和地面沉降与地下水位多元线性回归模型,预测了2009年底到2020年底的逐月地下水位动态和逐年地面沉降量的变化特征.结果表明,从2013年起,除山区沟谷孔隙潜水地下水位降落漏斗逐渐扩大外,其余孔隙水的地下水流场基本趋于稳定,地下水位年际变化很小,年地面沉降量也逐渐变小,由2012年的5.62 mm/a逐渐下降到2020年的5.54 mm/a,由地下水位下降引起的地面沉降基本得到控制.     

合肥地震台地电阻率与气温、降水、地下水位关系的初步研究

经对地电阻率ρs观测值的分析研究,发现观测数据因受本身台址电性条件的限制,观测深度较浅,受降雨等气象因素的影响明显.运用合肥地电阻率北南、北西向2007-2013年观测资料月均值与温度、降水、地下水位进行相关分析,采用多元线性回归方法对地电阻率进行校正,以反映地电阻率的真实变化,达到提取地震异常的目的.     

农业产业集群创新效率及影响因素——基于山东省寿光蔬菜产业集群的实证分析

创新是当前农业产业集群研究的重要内容,掌握集群创新状况对指导农业产业集群发展具有重要意义。结合实地调研的数据,利用DEA-Tobit两阶段模型,对山东省寿光蔬菜产业集群企业创新效率及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明:寿光蔬菜产业集群规模已接近最优状态,综合创新效率处于中等偏上水平,但仍未达到最优状态,主要原因是集群在科研技术投入、创新资源利用配置等方面不足造成的。进一步Tobit回归的影响因素分析发现:企业知识技术吸收扩散能力、政府财政支持力度、企业家创新精神和企业发展的外向性与农业产业集群企业创新效率存在显著的正相关关系,而企业规模对农业产业集群企业创新效率影响并不显著。最后,根据集群创新影响因素分析,提出发展建议。     

南黄海中部海底沉积物声阻抗特性

基于在南黄海中部海域获得的大量海底沉积物样品及其测试数据,分析讨论了该区域海底浅表层沉积物声阻抗特性及其与沉积物物理力学性质参数的相关关系。研究表明:研究区浅表层沉积物声阻抗呈现出分区域分布的特征,可分为西南部声阻抗高值区、东北部声阻抗低值区以及北西-东南向声阻抗梯度带3个区域。通过回归分析,建立了声阻抗与沉积物物理力学参数的经验回归方程。结果表明:声阻抗与密度、含水率、孔隙比、孔隙度、液限、塑限、塑性指数、压缩系数等参数的相关性较好,判定系数R²一般大于0.8,而与砂粒含量、黏粒含量、中值粒径、抗剪强度等参数的相关性相对较差,判定系数R²一般小于0.7。将声阻抗与物理力学性质的相关性和声速与物理力学性质的相关性进行了对比,结果表明,声阻抗与上述参数的判定系数R²均大于声速与上述参数的判定系数,从而表明声阻抗是一个能够更好地反映声学特性与物理力学性质关系的沉积物声学特性参数。     

采用变系数回归模型提取GPS坐标序列季节性信号

提出采用变系数回归模型提取连续GPS坐标序列中包含的振幅时变季节性信号。对模拟数据及实际GPS坐标序列两组数据的分析结果表明,变系数回归模型在提取GPS坐标序列季节信号方面比传统模型更有效。经处理,GPS坐标序列能获得更合理的速度及噪声估计。