整点气温缺测的插补方法研究及其初步应用

长期连续完整的历史气温资料是震前气温异常判别研究的重要数据基础。本文考虑了参考站与缺测站之间的距离,建立改进的线性回归模型。利用该模型插补缺测和错误的气温整点值数据,在一定程度上解决了长期连续观测数据缺测的情况。通过对收集的唐山观测站气温整点值数据进行插补,并应用插补完整的数据分析研究了2012年5月28日唐山4.8级地震前兆异常。结果表明:①插补值与其前后观测值衔接吻合,插补后完整连续数据符合夏高冬低的年变规律;②插补误差在±0.5℃范围内的比例为60.2%,在±0.8℃范围内的比例为80.3%,其误差绝对值大于1.0℃的比例为9.6%,平均绝对误差为0.84℃,插补值与观测值的相关系数大部分在0.9以上;③从3月27日起出现增温异常,特别是震前2天增温幅度约8℃。     

基于多元自回归样条的液化侧移灾害评估模型

为了将液化侧移计算方法本土化,本文基于Youd等人收集的液化侧移数据库,采用擅长处理复杂参数维度问题的多元自适应样条回归法（MARS）建立液化侧移计算模型。经验证,该方法建立的模型精度和可靠性都可以通过检验。本文主要内容包括：（1）在本土化过程中,本文选取峰值加速度PGA作为地震动参数,替代现有模型中的M和R,计算结果并未影响液化侧移计算精度;（2）在MARS方法进行建模过程中,对临空和缓坡两种情况的影响因素进行重要性程度计算和筛选;（3）建立两种情况下的液化侧移计算模型,并用F检验法和t检验以及新西兰2010—2011年系列地震中液化侧移数据进行检验,证明本文方法的合理性和可靠性。本文的结果能满足我国相关规范、工程师以及岩土地震工程防灾减灾等方面的需求,还可为地震液化侧移灾害小区划提供理论基础。     

地磁低点时间与经度的相关性分析

地磁低点时间在空间分布上的主要特征是随着经度变化而变化。为了求出这种变化关系的解析式,首先使用国家地磁台网的数据计算甘肃省近三年13个地磁台站的低点时间序列和低点时间的期望,并绘制了低点时间序列的频次分布图和概率密度曲线;然后对低点时间与台站经度的关系做线性回归,并指出这个线性回归方程应无限趋近于“格林尼治时间-经度”关系式。文章第一次提出台站经度与地磁Z分量低点时间的关系式,并提出它的趋近方程。各台站低点时间的期望就是地磁低点时间的正常背景值,它是判定地磁低点时间异常与否的参考标准。本文的工作完善和发展了丁鉴海先生的地磁低点位移法。     

基于广义回归神经网络的行星际/太阳风参数和地磁指数的紫外极光强度建模

极光卵极光强度的空间分布是太阳风-磁层-电离层能量耦合过程的重要表现,并且随着空间环境参数和地磁指数的变化而变化,是空间天气的重要指示器.建立合适的极光强度模型对亚暴的预测以及磁层动力学的研究具有重要意义.本文基于Polar卫星的紫外极光成像仪(Ultraviolet Imager,UVI)数据,采用两种不同的极光强度表征方法,即曲线拟合方法(从UVI图像数据中提取极光强度沿磁余纬方向上的曲线特征,Curve Feature along the Magnetic Co-latitude Direction of the Auroral Intensity,CFMCD_AI)和网格化方法(从UVI图像数据中提取极光强度的网格化特征,Gridding Feature of the Auroral Intensity,GF_AI),来构造极区极光强度特征数据库.然后,利用该数据库,采用广义回归神经网络(Generalized Regression Neural Network,GRNN)构建了以行星际/太阳风参数(行星际磁场三分量、太阳风速度和密度)和地磁指数(AE指数)为输入参数的两种极光强度预测模型(GRNN_CFMCD_AI模型和GRNN_GF_AI模型).利用图像质量评价指数结构相似度(structure similarity,SSIM)作为极光强度模型预测结果和对应的UVI图像的相似性评价标准(完全相似为1,不相似为0,一般认为SSIM大于0.5是具有较好的相似性),对两种极光强度模型进行了性能评价.结果显示,GRNN_GF_AI模型预测结果对应的SSIM值范围为0.36～0.77,均值为0.54,性能优于GRNN_CFMCD_AI模型的.     

基于自相似河网结构的河网消退系数Cs计算方法研究

新安江模型河网汇流参数Cs对洪峰模拟影响较大,目前Cs的确定需依赖于大量的历史数据,因此Cs的确定成为无资料地区和资料匮乏区水文模型应用中亟需解决的棘手问题.本文基于参数的物理意义,通过自相似河网结构的假定,构建Cs与河网形态、流域下垫面特征的相关联系,提出基于河链蓄量方程的Cs估算方法,对半干旱、半湿润和湿润地区等不同水文气象分区的11个流域的Cs值进行推算并代入新安江模型中进行模拟,经比较发现,11个流域子流域Cs计算均值与新安江模型率定结果相近,说明该Cs计算方法是合理的.选取陈河、屯溪两个典型流域研究单元流域属性对Cs的影响,由结果可以看出Cs与流域面积、河链数、河宽呈正相关,与单元流域距离出口的远近呈负相关,这表明流域分块后各单元流域Cs值不一致,而新安江模型中采用相同Cs值对不同单元进行调节必然会造成汇流计算的误差.为进一步提高该方法在无资料地区的应用效果,将新安江模型汇流模块修改为每个单元使用对应的Cs计算值进行滞后演算,以陈河和屯溪流域为例采用新安江模型Cs率定值、Cs计算均值以及修改后新安江模型3种不同方案进行模拟比较,从模拟结果可以得出,修改后的模型具有明显优势,将模型参数与下垫面条件建立了联系,模型物理机制提高且参数的独立性增强,对于新安江模型在无资料地区的应用具有重要的指导意义.     

Mineral-Potential Mapping for MVT Deposits with Limited Data Sets Using Landsat Data and Geological Evidence in the Borden Basin, Northern Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada

Posterior probabilities of occurrence for Zn-Pb Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) mineralization were calculated based on evidence maps derived from regional geology, Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, a digital elevation model and aeromagnetic data sets in the Borden Basin of northern Baffin Island, Canada. The vector representation of geological contacts and fault traces were refined according to their characteristics identified in Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, DEM, slope, aspect, and shaded relief data layers. Within the study area, there is an association between the occurrence of MVT mineralization and proximity to the contact of platformal carbonates and shale units of the adjacent geological formation. A spatial association also tends to exist between mineralization and proximity to E-W and NW-SE trending faults. The relationships of known MVT occurrences with the geological features were investigated by spatial statistical techniques to generate evidence maps. Supervised classification and filtering were applied to Landsat-TM data to divide the Society Cliffs Formation into major stratigraphic subunits. Because iron oxides have been observed at some of the MVT occurrences within the Borden Basin, Landsat-TM data band ratio (3/1) was calculated to highlight the potential presence of iron-oxides as another evidence map. Processed Landsat-TM data and other derived geological evidence maps provided useful indicators for identifying areas of potential MVT mineralization. Weights of evidence and logistic regression were used independently to integrate and generate posterior probability maps showing areas of potential mineralization based on all derived evidence maps. Results indicate that in spite of the lack of important data sets such as stream or lake sediment geochemistry, Landsat-TM data and regional geological data can be useful for MVT mineral-potential mapping.     

Controls on suspended‐sediment transfer at a high‐arctic glacier,determined from statistical modelling

Simple linear regression models have been widely employed in the analysis of suspended‐sediment concentration (SSC) time series from glacierized catchments, although they have many limitations. This paper builds regression models which address these shortcomings and permit inferences concerning the controls on suspended‐sediment transfer from a glacier at 78°N in the Svalvard archipelago. A bivariate regression model, deterministically predicting SSC from discharge alone, explained less than 15 per cent of the variance in SSC. A multivariate model, incorporating additional potentially explanatory variables, offered little improvement. Diurnal hysteresis in the data gives rise to quasi‐autocorrelation in the residual series from regression models. This was effectively removed by incorporating dummy diurnal variables into the multivariate model. The presence of a first‐order autoregressive, stochastic process gives rise to true autocorrelation in the residual series from regression models. This was accommodated by incorporating an ARIMA (1,0,0) term into a multivariate autoregression model. The model‐building process yielded a systematic progression in the explanation of variance in SSC, stripping away pattern in the autocorrelation function of the residual series; mean model error was reduced from 54 per cent to 6 per cent. The dependence of SSC on the magnitude of discharge is weak and highly variable, whereas the dependence of current SSC on recent values of SSC, revealed through the stochastic term, is an order of magnitude greater and relatively constant during the melt season. The dominant control on SSC throughout the melt season is therefore short‐term sediment availability. The simple and largely unchanging stochastic process generally responsible for generating the observed SSC series implies a simple and unchanging glacier drainage system. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical study of spatial variation of response spectrum using free field records of dense strong motion arrays

Spatial variation of acceleration response spectra is examined using strong motion records for a large number of events from dense accelerometer arrays at Chiba in Japan and SMART-1 in Lotung, Taiwan. The effects of earthquake component, structural damping, earthquake magnitude, focal depth, epicentral distance, structural time period, and station separation on the intra-event variation of response spectra are examined first through an empirical analysis and then through a least-square regression fit for parametric study. A very large scatter of the response spectra ratio is observed for both arrays, especially for SMART-1 array. The mean values of the ratio vary from 10 to 20 per cent for Chiba array while they vary from 25 to 50 per cent for SMART-1 array. The coefficients of variation of the ratio range from 5 to 25 per cent for Chiba array and 30 to 50 per cent for SMART-1 array. The correlation among response spectra is found to be inversely proportional to station separation and shows frequency dependence. For larger time periods, the correlation is lower and not higher. The correlation is also lower for UD earthquake component as compared to the two horizontal components. For higher damping ratio, the correlation among spectra is higher. The effect of the earthquake magnitude, focal depth and epicentral distance on the spatial variation is complex. The three parameters having implicit interdependence, considering their combined effect, a positive contribution to the value of ratio of response spectra is observed in the case of larger earthquake events. Furthermore, as mentioned above, the spatial variation for SMART-1 array is much larger than that for Chiba array. This difference can be attributed mainly to the difference in distance between the instruments in the two arrays. However, some of the difference is considered to be due to site specific characteristics. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

运营期水下盾构隧道管片接缝张开度变化规律

水下盾构隧道管片间接缝张开度对隧道防水及运营期结构安全有重要影响。以南京扬子江隧道结构健康监测系统中两个典型监测断面的接缝监测数据为基础,通过多元线性回归分析方法分析在两种不同地层组合下接缝张开度随水位、温度变化的规律;并对接缝张开度随水位变化的规律进行了有限元数值模拟,数值模拟结果与回归分析结果吻合较好。上述分析结果表明,纵缝张开度和横缝张开度随水位、温度的变化均呈现较好的线性关系,具体变化趋势如下：当盾构隧道穿越上砂下岩的上透下不透地层时,环内上半部分管片纵缝张开度随水位的增大而增大,受温度影响则相对较小;当盾构隧道穿越砂性全透水地层时,环内管片纵缝张开度随水位的增大而减小,受温度影响也相对较小;环间横缝张开度在上述两种地层下随水位、温度的变化趋势相同,均随水位增大而增大,随温度的升高而减小。     

基于热红外光谱的干旱区土壤盐分监测研究

土壤盐渍化是新疆最常见的土地退化过程,已经严重威胁到了当地的农业生产、生态稳定和经济发展。通过对渭库绿洲土壤含盐量和土壤热红外光谱分析,探讨了土壤含盐量与热红外发射率之间的定量关系。结果表明：（1）盐渍化土壤的发射率随着含盐量的变化而发生变化,当土壤盐分增加时,发射率也随之增大。（2）土壤含盐量与热红外发射率光谱数据相关性在8.5～9.5 μm波段范围内表现尤为显著,相关系数超过0.8,最高为0.90,对应波段范围9.259～9.271 μm。（3）运用回归模型一阶导数变换形式下建模效果和预测精度都是最优的,R²达到了0.899,RMSE最小为1.734。热红外光谱技术可以反演土壤含盐量,为利用热红外遥感识别土壤盐分信息提供技术支撑。