用曲面插值方法建立海洋局部地磁场模型

地磁场模型是地磁场的数学表达式,国内外已有多种建立地磁场模型的方法,对于局部地磁场模型来说,应用比较多的是多项式方法和曲面样条函数方法。讨论了基于曲面样条函数建立局部地磁场模型的原理和方法,并在实测数据基础上对模型的精度进行了验证。     

Estimating sagebrush cover in semi-arid environments using Landsat Thematic Mapper data

Sagebrush ecosystems of the western US provide important habitat for several ungulate and vertebrate species. As a consequence of energy development, these ecosystems in Wyoming have been subjected to a variety of anthropogenic disturbances. Land managers require methodology that will allow them to consistently catalog sagebrush ecosystems and evaluate potential impact of proposed anthropogenic activities. This study addresses the utility of remotely sensed and ancillary geospatial data to estimate sagebrush cover using ordinal logistic regression. We demonstrate statistically significant prediction of ordinal sagebrush cover categories using spectral (χ² = 113; p < 0.0001) and transformed indices (χ² = 117; p < 0.0001). Both Landsat spectral bands (c-value = 0.88) and transformed indices (c-value = 0.89) can distinguish sites with closed, moderate and open cover sagebrush cover categories from no cover. The techniques described in this study can be used for estimating categories of sagebrush cover in arid ecosystems.     

半参数模型统计诊断与粗差检验(英文)

This paper systematically studies the statistical diagnosis and hypothesis testing for the semiparametric linear regression model according to the theories and methods of the statistical diagnosis and hypothesis testing for parametric regression model.Several diagnostic measures and the methods for gross error testing are derived.Especially,the global and local influence analysis of the gross error on the parameter X and the nonparameter s are discussed in detail;at the same time,the paper proves that the d...     

Comparing spatially varying coefficient models: a case study examining violent crime rates and their relationships to alcohol outlets and illegal drug arrests

In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian model.      

中国区域地理、地形因子对降水分布影响的估算和分析

不同与以往基于最小二乘的多元线性回归方法,本文首次尝试将新型的第二代回归分析方法——偏最小二乘回归分析方法应用到中国区域的降水建模中．利用区域内394个气象观测站建站到2000年45年(及以上)的降水资料,建立了一个简单的年、季降水量和地理、地形因子(包括纬度、经度、地形高程、坡度、坡向和遮蔽度)的关系模型,估算了区域降水量中地理、地形的影响部分,并分析了这种影响的特征．结果表明,用此方法建立的模型能够解释70%以上的因变量的变异,相关系数基本都在0.84以上,经交叉有效性检验,模型的回归效果较显著．分析表明,在多元线性回归不适用的情况下,本文基于偏最小二乘法的简单模型能够比较准确地定性、定量地再现实际降水分布．     

兰州市主城区房价分异及驱动因素研究

以2021年兰州市主城区678个居住小区房价数据为基础,引入地理场模型量化影响房价的外部因素,通过空间自相关分析、多尺度地理加权回归等模型对房价分异的空间格局及驱动因素的作用机理、带宽差异展开研究,以期为推动河谷型城市房产市场的公平发展提供参考。结果表明:(1)兰州市主城区平均房价为13739元·m^-2,空间上呈现“一主三副”的带状多中心组团式分布格局,房价由多中心向四周递减,价格相似的小区在地理空间上邻近分布,具有“小集中、大分散”的局部空间特征。(2)房价分异是多种驱动因素共同作用的结果,区位特征中的主商圈对房价的影响居于首位,建筑特征中的房龄、容积率和邻里特征中的中学数量、绿化率等对房价的影响较大,城市地理特征对房价具有显著影响,愈靠近黄河的小区、房价越高。(3)各驱动因素的带宽差异明显,主商圈、医院等小尺度变量存在高度空间异质性,而容积率、黄河等全局变量基本不存在空间异质性。     

西藏地表温度时空演变特征及影响因子

地表温度（land surface temperature,LST）是反映生态环境状况的重要指标。西藏作为气候变化的敏感地区,掌握其LST的时空变化有利于深入了解西藏热环境演化过程,为长期监测高原基础生态变化提供帮助。研究基于谷歌地球引擎获取西藏2000—2020年的MODIS LST数据,采用归一化分级方法对LST进行5个等级的划分,利用趋势分析、热力空间分析以及重心迁移等方法分析了研究区近20年来的LST时空演变特征。同时,选取归一化植被指数（normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI）、裸土指数（bare soil index,BI）、垂直不透水面指数（perpendicular impervious surface index,PISI）、湿度（WET）以及高程（digital elevation model,DEM）等5个影响LST的地表参数,结合多尺度地理加权回归,探讨了LST影响因子的作用尺度与作用效力。结果表明：2000—2020年,西藏LST均值由18.72℃上升至20.28℃,年均增长0.09℃,LST呈现微弱上升态势。2...     

Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Directly Affecting Guangdong Province:Prediction Based on LSTM-FC

Tropical cyclone(TC) annual frequency forecasting is significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province. Based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed global sea surface temperature(SST) V5 data in winter, the TC frequency climatic features and prediction models have been studied.During 1951-2019, 353 TCs directly affected Guangdong with an annual average of about 5.1. TCs have experienced an abrupt change from abundance to deficiency in the mid to late ...     

Abrupt behaviours of streamflow and sediment load variations of the Yangtze River basin,China

Monthly sediment load and streamflow series spanning 1963–2004 from four hydrological stations situation in the main stem of the Yangtze River, China, are analysed using scanning t‐test and the simple two‐phase linear regression scheme. Results indicate significant changes in the sediment load and streamflow from the upper reach to the lower reach of the Yangtze River. Relatively consistent positive coherency relations can be detected between streamflow and sediment load in the upper reach and negative coherency in the middle and lower reaches. Interestingly, negative coherency is found mainly for larger time scales. Changes in sediment load are the result mainly of human influence; specifically, the construction of water reservoirs may be the major cause of negative coherency. Accentuating the human influence from the upper to the lower reach results in inconsistent correlations between sediment load and streamflow. Decreasing sediment load being observed in recent years has the potential to alter the topographical properties of the river channel and the consequent development and recession of the Yangtze Delta. Results of this study are of practical significance for river channel management and evaluation of the influence of human activities on the hydrological regimes of large rivers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Phosphorus and nitrogen limitation of algal biomass across trophic gradients

Regression results based on data from 46 northern temperate lakes show that total phosphorus (TP) is the best predictor for phytoplankton (as chl-a) at lower trophic levels, TP < 200 mg · m^–3. A regression including both TP and TN as regressors is the best predictor for lakes with TP > 200 mg · m^–3. However, the good correlation is probably due to a high correlation between lake average chl-a (all years observed) and lake average TP and TN. Within single hypereutrophic lakes, TN alone is the best predictor. It was not possible to identify a medium trophic domain where TN and TP in combination was the best predictor for chl-a. The ratio TN:TP in the water decreases from about 40 to about 5 with increasing trophic level. Optimum TN:TP ratio for algal species with high abundance during late summer and autumn reflects this decreasing ratio, but within a lesser range, i.e., 20 to 5. In contrast, TN:TP ratios for species abundant during the early vernal period showed no, or an inverse, relation to the TN:TP ratio of the water.