北京市长安街沿线的扒窃案件高发区分析及防控对策

本文利用空间分析方法,对北京市长安街沿线的扒窃类案件的空间分布特征进行了研究。首先分析了长安街沿线的犯罪分布状况,发现该长安街沿线共存在3个异常明显的犯罪高发区域,分别对应于西单商业圈(A)、建国门路段(B)和大望路—四惠路段(C),通过将长安街沿线的常住人口与兴趣点(Point of Interest, POI)分布进行比较,发现案件与POI密度较高的区域存在较高的相关性。随后,利用核密度估计方法和时空热点矩阵方法分析了3个异常明显的案件高发区域内的犯罪活动时空分布模式,结果表明：高发区域A的犯罪高发时段为上午10时至下午18时,其中峰值出现在正午12时,犯罪活动主要集中在区域内的一些大型购物场所内;高发区域B和C的犯罪高发时间均为上午6时和下午18时前后,与早晚交通高峰时间比较一致,犯罪活动主要集中在区域内比较重要的公共交通站点附近。最后,根据长安街沿线案件高发区域内犯罪活动的时空规律性特征,提出了犯罪防控措施与建议。     

Spatiotemporal changes of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012

In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012 and their possible driving factors using daily minimum temperature data from 121 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and the surrounding areas. These data were analyzed utilizing a piecewise regression model, a Sen+Mann- Kendall model, and a correlation analysis. Results demonstrated that (1) the frequency of single-station cold surges decreased in Inner Mongolia during the study period, with a linear tendency of -0.5 times/10a (-2.4 to 1.2 times/10a). Prior to 1991, a significant decreasing trend of -1.1 times/10a (-3.3 to 2.5 times/10a) was detected, while an increasing trend of 0.45 times/10a (-4.4 to 4.2 times/10a) was found after 1991. On a seasonal scale, the trend in spring cold surges was consistent with annual values, and the most obvious change in cold surges occurred during spring. Monthly cold surge frequency displayed a bimodal structure, and November witnessed the highest incidence of cold surge. (2) Spatially, the high incidence of cold surge is mainly observed in the northern and central parts of Inner Mongolia, with a higher occurrence observed in the northern than in the central part. Inter-decadal characteristic also revealed that high frequency and low frequency regions presented decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, between 1960 and 1990. High frequency regions expanded after the 1990s, and regions exhibiting high cold surge frequency were mainly distributed in Tulihe, Xiao’ergou, and Xi Ujimqin Banner. (3) On an annual scale, the cold surge was dominated by AO, NAO, CA, APVII, and CQ. However, seasonal differences in the driving forces of cold surges were detected. Winter cold surges were significantly correlated with AO, NAO, SHI, CA, TPI, APVII, CW, and IZ, indicating they were caused by multiple factors. Autumn cold surges were mainly affected by CA and IM, while spring cold surges were significantly correlated with CA and APVII.     

路堤边坡稳定可靠度计算中的模型不确定性分析

基于均质路堤边坡Monte Carlo法的稳定可靠度计算,分析了临界滑面搜索策略和稳定分析方法两类模型不确定性对边坡可靠度的影响特性,讨论了边坡失效概率随土工参数变异性的变化规律。研究表明,选用不同的临界滑面搜索策略所得可靠度结果差异不大,参数滑面法（overall slope）的失效概率略大于均值滑面法（global minimum）,但差别对边坡稳定性分析没有实质性影响;土性参数变异水平是影响边坡可靠度的最重要因素,边坡在相同设计参数安全系数下的可靠度指标随参数变异性增大而急剧降低;不同稳定性分析方法对应的安全系数概率密度函数曲线形态基本一致,但失效概率差异明显,因此目标可靠度指标取值应与稳定性分析方法相适应。提出的考虑土工参数变异水平的安全系数取值修正原则,对改进确定性设计的边坡稳定分析技术有积极意义。     

Impact of channel bar form and grain size variability on estimated stranding risk of juvenile brown trout during hydropeaking

Hydropeaking leads to artificial fluctuations in discharge and corresponding water levels with pronounced dewatering areas between base and peak flow along gravel bars and channel banks. In the present study, 16 hydropeaking reaches in Austria were investigated to assess possible differences in the estimated stranding risk for young of the year brown trout according to different gravel bar types and differences in microtopography roughness. Based on hydrodynamic‐numerical modelling, a predictive habitat modelling approach was implemented in the study design. Accompanied by grain size sampling along the various channel bars, a conceptual stranding risk model (SRM) was developed. The results showed that a high variability in estimated stranding risk exists for the tested sites considering discharge ratios of 1:3, 1:5 and 1:10. With respect to the discussion of establishing legal thresholds for ramping ratios in discharge, it was documented that, exemplarily, a discharge ratio base flow/peak flow of 1:5 (winter base flow conditions) could cause minor differences in the spatial extent of dewatering areas and the related estimated stranding risk for juvenile brown trout compared to a ratio of 1:2 for summer base flow conditions. Microtopographic roughness was addressed due to sampling and analysis of grain size distributions. Statistical testing of grain size distributions revealed significant differences between the surface material compositions of the investigated gravel bars. Those differences are evident, particularly for the coarser fraction (d₉₀), which is important as cover for young of the year brown trout. These aspects of grain size in habitat use and hydraulics have been addressed in the conceptual SRM. The results showed that point bar morphology, in particular, was less sensitive to the risk of stranding compared to, for example, alternating gravel bars. Considering the multiple pressures for alpine rivers, the improvement of structural features due to bar formation and related self‐forming processes is discussed as a possible alternative for future mitigation measures to reduce the negative impacts of hydropeaking. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating proxies for estimating subaerial beach volume change across increasing time scales and various morphologies

Proxies, such as changes in beach profiles and shoreline positions, are commonly used in management and research for estimating changes in subaerial beach volume; however, the accuracy of these proxies across increasing time scales and complex morphologies is unclear. Volume changes associated with along‐beach morphologic variability may not be captured well by changes in profiles, while volume changes associated with across‐beach morphologic variability may not be captured well by measuring shoreline change. This study assesses the impacts of morphologic variations, associated with beach cusps and nourishment material, on volume change estimates from profiles and shoreline change at 0.5 to 3.5 year time periods. Results indicate that profiles spaced ≥ 150 m apart and the shoreline‐change proxy will likely estimate volume change inaccurately over periods ≤ 1 year at beaches that are consistently eroding or accreting and contain cusps. However, over longer time periods (1–3.5 years), estimates of volume change from both proxies improved at those types of beaches. Volume changes at the edges of nourishment areas are not captured well by profiles. When the nourishment material is graded to a ramped morphology, which minimizes across‐beach morphologic variability, the shoreline‐change proxy does accurately estimate volume changes. Both proxies estimate volume changes inaccurately at beaches where volume changes oscillate between erosion and accretion on both short and long time scales because the magnitude of small‐scale changes in volume from the formation and erosion of morphologic features, such as cusps and berms, will always be similar to the longer‐term net volume change. This study suggests that decadal records of shoreline change, which are commonly developed using aerial photography, can be used to help identify the best proxy for estimating volume change; however, recent anthropogenic modifications that impact patterns of beach sedimentation, including nourishment, terminal groins, and inlet‐channel dredging, makes decadal records less useful. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adjacent catchments with similar patterns of land use and climate have markedly different dissolved organic carbon concentration and runoff dynamics

Temporal patterns in specific runoff, dissolved organic carbon concentrations [DOC] and fluxes were examined during two periods: 1994–1997 (period 1) and 2007–2009 (period 2) in five adjacent tributary catchments of Lake Simcoe, the largest lake in southern Ontario, Canada. The catchments displayed similar patterns of land use change with increases in urbanization (5–16%) and forest cover (0.2–4%) and declines in agriculture (4–8%) between 1994 and 2008. Climate in the catchments was similar; temperature increased slightly, but no significant change in precipitation was observed. Despite similar pattern of climate and land use, runoff responses and tributary [DOC] were different across the catchments. Following a very dry year (i.e. 1999), runoff increased steadily until the end of record. We observed increased variability in tributary [DOC] and higher DOC exports in period 2. This led to ~10% increase in [DOC] and a 13% increase in flux between the two study periods. Between the two periods, [DOC] increased by 15% in spring and 25% in summer, whereas flux increased by 17% in spring and 48% in summer. [DOC] was consistently higher in the growing (summer + autumn) than the dormant (winter + spring, minus spring melt months) seasons, but no unique pattern or simple linear flow/concentrations relationships existed. This suggests complex spatial and temporal pattern to runoff controls on DOC and flow dynamics in adjacent catchments. We therefore caution against extrapolating from monitored to unmonitored catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village,Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi

In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people’s perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climate change, IKS varies over a short spatial scale, providing locally relevant adaptation to impacts of climate change. This paper therefore advocates for the integration of IKS in programmes addressing adaptation to climate change and vulnerability. This will serve to ensure sustainable and relevant adaptation strategies.     

甘肃省春季降水的空间异常分布及年代际变化

利用甘肃省80个气象站建站至2012年3-5月的降水量资料, 分析了甘肃省春季降水的基本气候特征; 通过EOF、REOF、小波分析等方法, 对甘肃春季降水的时空特性进行了研究, 用Mann-Kendall检验法检验了甘肃春季降水序列是否存在突变现象. 结果表明, 甘肃春季降水空间分布极不均匀, 其空间分布特征是东南部为多雨区、西北部为少雨区. 甘肃春季降水在第一空间尺度上为全区一致, 在第二空间尺度上可分为2个自然气候区, 在第三空间尺度上可分为7个自然气候区. 从年代际变化来看, 1960年代是近50 a来降水最多的10 a, 1990年代是降水最少的10 a; 甘肃春季降水的年际变率十分显著, 降水最多的年份是最少年份的近5倍. 1961-2012年间甘肃春季降水发生了明显的突变, 1982年出现了一次增多趋势的突变, 1992年出现了一次减少趋势的突变. 5 a的短周期和18～19 a的长周期是其主要周期. 甘肃春季降水偏少(多)年份的500 hPa异常环流形势为极涡弱(强)、中纬度亚洲为一脊一槽型、东亚大槽深(浅)、南支槽浅(深).     

浙江近海夏季流场特征分析

为了揭示浙江近岸流场特征及沿程变化规律,于2006年和2009年夏季在浙江岸外3个固定点利用ADCP潜标进行了多个潮周期分层海流流速、流向观测。研究结果表明:(1)浙江沿岸流在中北部海域(A和B站位)为旋转流,流向呈顺时针方向旋转,在南部(C站位)涨潮流方向基本为北向,落潮方向为东偏北向;各站位海流在垂向上流向较一致。(2)3个站位垂线平均流速相近(44.4~51.1 cm/s),但平均流速的垂向分布差异明显;各站的最大流速均大于110 cm/s,且均出现在大潮涨急时刻。(3)观测期间,A(北部)、B(中北部)和C(南部)站位平均余流的大小分别为21.9,12.3和22.3 cm/s;受长江冲淡水影响,A和B站位中上层余流为西南向,从中层向底层流向呈逆时针方向偏转,下层流向呈东南向,可能为台湾暖流牵引所致,C站位余流流向在垂向较为一致,均为东北向,主要受季风影响。(4)夏季浙江沿岸流在沿浙江沿岸北上的过程中,在浙江中部(B和C站位中间)逐渐向东偏转(可能受台湾暖流的牵引),流经海域水深变大。(5)在夏季长江径流量偏小时段,浙江中北部近岸海域也存在向南的沿岸流(同冬季),其范围从长江口以南一直至浙江中北部。浙江近岸海流受季风、长江冲淡水和台湾暖流共同制约,但各区域的主要受控因素不同。     

吕宋海峡西侧海域混合层盐度低频变化特征分析

利用WOD09和Argo剖面资料,结合SODA、OFES、GPCP和WHOI等资料分析了吕宋海峡西侧海域混合层盐度1984—2010年间的长期变化趋势和年代际变化特征,并利用混合层盐度平衡方程探讨了其变化机理。研究结果表明:(1)吕宋海峡西侧海域的盐度整体上呈现下降趋势,线性趋势为-0.020/a;(2)以1999年为界,吕宋海峡西侧海域的盐度在1999年之前为正距平,最大正距平值可达0.14,平均值为0.05,在1999年之后为负距平,最大负距平值为-0.22,平均值为-0.06;(3)影响该海域混合层盐度的长期变化趋势和年代际变化的主要因素为平流作用,特别是黑潮入侵的变化。