台湾以东黑潮的低频变化及机制研究

本文基于AVISO（Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data）1993-2015年间的海表面绝对动力高度数据,研究了台湾以东黑潮的低频变化特征,并探讨了影响其变化的机制。结果表明,台湾以东多年平均的黑潮流幅值约为136 km,表层流量值约为7.75×104 m2/s,对应的标准差分别为28 km和2.14×104 m2/s。台湾以东黑潮不仅具有显著的季节变化特征,还具有显著的年际变化特征。功率谱分析结果表明,台湾以东黑潮表层流量具有1 a和2.8 a的显著周期。空间上,台湾东南部黑潮的年际变化幅度比东北部强烈。相关性及合成分析结果表明,台湾以东黑潮的年际变化与PTO（Philippines-Taiwan Oscillation）之间存在显著的相关性。PTO年际震荡所导致的副热带逆流区反气旋式涡旋与气旋式涡旋的相对强度是影响台湾以东黑潮年际变化的主要动力因素。     

Evaluating the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of larval fish assemblages in a coastal marine ecosystem (Haizhou Bay,China)

In coastal marine ecosystems, spatial patterns of larval fish assemblages (LFAs) tend to exhibit geographic stability because of relatively stable spawning site selection and predictable oceanographic phenomena such as eddies. To evaluate the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of LFAs, we conducted a high spatiotemporal resolution ichthyoplankton survey from April to July in 2013 in the shallow waters (<20 m) of Haizhou Bay, China. Our analysis indicated three distinct assemblages, which were stable geographically but exhibited a gradual and directional change of species composition and abundance over our study period. Sea surface temperature was the most important environmental co‐variate for determining temporal variability of LFAs, likely owing to temperature effects of species composition and spawning period selection of adult fish, along with known temperature‐dependent survival rates of larval fish. Study of LFA spatiotemporal dynamics is essential for improved understanding of adult fish spawning behavior, and has potential to inform design and implementation of conservation and management measures (e.g. marine protected areas) in coastal systems.     

Learning soil parameters and updating geotechnical reliability estimates under spatial variability – theory and application to shallow foundations

ABSTRACT

Field data is commonly used to determine soil parameters for geotechnical analysis. Bayesian analysis allows combining field data with other information on soil parameters in a consistent manner. We show that the spatial variability of the soil properties and the associated measurements can be captured through two different modelling approaches. In the first approach, a single random variable (RV) represents the soil property within the area of interest, while the second approach models the spatial variability explicitly with a random field (RF). We apply the Bayesian concept exemplarily to the reliability assessment of a shallow foundation in a silty soil with spatially variable data. We show that the simpler RV approach is applicable in cases where the measurements do not influence the correlation structure of the soil property at the vicinity of the foundation. In other cases, it is expected to underestimate the reliability, and a RF model is required to obtain accurate results.     

Probabilistic assessment of soil liquefaction considering spatial variability of CPT measurements

The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material.     

The need for judgement in geotechnical reliability studies

ABSTRACT

A core principle of geotechnical engineering practice is the need to exercise judgement in evaluating soil and site conditions and in performing analyses. The requirement for considering judgement applies equally to performing deterministic or probabilistic analyses. In addition, for probabilistic analyses, choices must be made among the possible methods of analysis and the method of characterising variables. Consequently, geotechnical reliability studies inevitably involve significant uncertainties, and judgement is needed to perform reliability analyses and to evaluate the results. Two case histories, briefly described here, show that judgement and experience are essential prerequisites for meaningful assessment of geotechnical reliability.     

Full probabilistic design of slopes in spatially variable soils using simplified reliability analysis method

ABSTRACT

A simplified reliability analysis method is proposed for efficient full probabilistic design of soil slopes in spatially variable soils. The soil slope is viewed as a series system comprised of numerous potential slip surfaces and the spatial variability of soil properties is modelled by the spatial averaging technique along potential slip surfaces. The proposed approach not only provides sufficiently accurate reliability estimates of slope stability, but also significantly improves the computational efficiency of soil slope design in comparison with simulation-based full probabilistic design. It is found that the spatial variability has considerable effects on the optimal slope design.     

陇东黄土高原下垫面不均匀性指标的建立及其对大孔径闪烁仪(LAS)观测感热通量的影响

目前定量研究下垫面不均匀性对大孔径闪烁仪(LAS)、涡动相关仪(ECS)观测感热通量差异的影响还比较少.本文利用黄土高原庆阳观测站2012年6、7月典型晴天两主风向范围E-SE和SW-W的陆面过程数据,在建立了下垫面不均匀性定量化指标的基础上,分析了下垫面不均匀性与地表温度变率的关系及其对LAS、ECS观测感热通量差异的影响.结果表明:庆阳站下垫面不均匀性大小η和地表温度变率г具有很好的相关性,相关系数达到0.566以上,证明了新建立指标的合理性.下垫面不均匀性大小η和LAS、ECS观测的感热通量差异HLAS-HECS具有很好的一致性,相关系数达到0.634.下垫面不均匀性对LAS和ECS的感热通量差异影响显著,下垫面越不均匀LAS和ECS测量的感热通量差异越大.对两主风向分别进行分析,在E-SE风向范围η和HLAS-HECS的相关系数为0.430,HLAS和HEC拟合的线性趋势系数为1.279,在SW-W风向范围η和HLAS-HECS的相关系数为0.680,HLAS和HEC拟合的线性趋势系数为1.297.下垫面不均匀性的影响程度越大,LAS和ECS观测的感热通量差异越大.     

Determining useful benchmarks for the bioassessment of highly disturbed areas based on diatoms

Modern ecological assessments of running waters are based on the a priori definition of ecological benchmarks, given by reference-quality sites. Such benchmarks are established at the level of ecoregions, typologies, or site. Yet, in highly disturbed regions, such as coastal areas of European countries, the assessment of streams’ water quality based on the reference condition concept is very difficult, due to the lack of undisturbed sites. Among others, the reduced number of reference sites may have as a consequence the definition of imprecise ecological benchmarks. Here we tested the hypotheses that (1) the increase in the number of potential reference sites (2) the definition of more precise abiotic thresholds using the least disturbed condition approach (LDC), and (3) the use of diatom assemblages, as the most ubiquitous element in lowland areas, would result in refinement and eventual sub-division of existing river types of a highly disturbed area, such as the Portuguese centre-western region. For this purpose, abiotic data characterising natural conditions of 55 sites from a littoral highly disturbed region were used in a hierarchical classification analysis that revealed the existence of three different sub-groups. In addition, a three-step approach was used to define thresholds for the pressure variables in LDC. Based on these new thresholds, sites in LDC were selected. A hierarchical classification performed to the LDC diatom spring assemblages revealed the existence of two sub-groups, concordant with two of the abiotic sub-groups. Several species contributed to the dissimilarity between the two sub-groups (e.g., Achnanthidium minutissimum and Karayevia oblongella). Differences between the sub-groups were also found in the trait proportions of stalked species. New benchmark values for these two sub-groups, based on the scores of the official diatom index, the Indice de Polluosensibilité Spécifique (IPS), were different from the previous reference value used. Yet, no biological benchmark values were established for one of the groups due to the absence of sites in the LDC. Our study suggests that streambed substrate is an important characterisation variable in the river type definition and highlights that, in spite of the potential refinement in reference conditions and typology obtained, an alternative approach that does not require the use of reference sites should be explored in the future.     

Process‐based modeling of kilometer‐scale alongshore sandbar variability

Subtidal nearshore sandbars may exhibit cyclic net offshore migration during their multi‐annual lifetime along many sandy coasts. Although this type of behavior can extend continuously for several kilometers, alongshore variations in cross‐shore bar position and bar amplitude are commonly observed. Alongshore variability is greatest when bars display km‐scale disruptions, indicative of a distinct alongshore phase shift in the bar cycle. An outer bar is then attached to an inner bar, forming a phenomenon known as a bar switch. Here, we investigate such large‐scale alongshore variability using a process‐based numerical profile model and observations at 24 transects along a 6 km section of the barred beach at Noordwijk, The Netherlands. When alongshore variability is limited, the model predicts that the bars migrate offshore at approximately the same rate (i.e. the bars remain in phase). Only under specific bar configurations with high wave‐energy levels is an increase in the alongshore variability predicted. This suggests that cross‐shore processes may trigger a switch in the case of specific antecedent morphological configurations combined with storm conditions. It is expected that three‐dimensional (3D) flow patterns augment the alongshore variability in such instances. In contrast to the observed bar behaviour, predicted bar morphologies on either side of a switch remain in different phases, even though the bars are occasionally located at a similar cross‐shore position. In short, the 1D model is not able to remove a bar switch. This data‐model mismatch suggests that 3D flow patterns are key to the dissipation of bar switches. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国地级及以上城市GDP含金量时空分异格局

利用ESDA-GIS、空间变异函数、重心迁移与趋势面分析等方法,对2001年和2011年全国343个地级及以上城市GDP含金量的空间分异格局、总体趋势、空间异质性和相关性进行研究。结果表明：中国地级单元GDP含金量空间分异显著,呈现出西部>东部>中部、北方>南方>中部的趋势,具有全局正相关关系。10 a间,GDP含金量的重心向东南方向迁移;黄河以北和长江以南区域的含金量显著减小,而东部沿海和西部沿边地带的含金量显著扩大;GDP含金量的冷点区大幅扩张而热点区大幅收缩。产业结构、居民收入来源、城镇化水平、人力资本存量和初次分配结构是影响GDP含金量的主要因素。