贵州百花湖表层水中不同形态汞的分布规律

均匀布点采集百花湖表层水样44个,对水样不同形态汞含量进行了分析,并现场测定水质参数。采用经典统计学与半变异函数拟合相结合的方法,研究了百花湖表层水中不同形态汞含量的空间变异性。根据半变异函数拟合的结果,在ArcGIS软件的支持下进行克立格插值,以此来揭示百花湖表层水中不同形态汞含量的空间分布规律。研究表明:百花湖表层水中的汞污染主要来自上游,随水体流动汞污染减少;但也有一些区域可能因富营养化而使颗粒态汞和总汞含量增加。     

黑龙江省兴凯湖平原土壤pH值时空变化特征分析

土壤酸碱度是影响土壤化学和生物学性质的一个重要因素,会对土地生产力产生重要影响.为掌握兴凯湖平原土壤pH值近年来变化状况,采用空间统计方法,基于全国第二次土壤普查及2019年土壤pH值数据,对工作区近30年土壤pH值时空变化特征进行了分析.结果表明：兴凯湖平原土壤pH值总体呈下降趋势,但整体上土壤pH值变幅不大,主要集中在±0.5～±1区间.从土地利用类型上来看,兴凯湖平原耕地区土壤pH值均呈下降趋势,西部的林地区pH值整体保持不变或略有上升.在兴凯湖平原4种主要土壤类型中,除暗棕壤外,其他3类土壤在近30年间pH平均值均呈下降趋势.因此需要对工作区土壤pH值变化的原因进行多因素、定量分析,以进一步明确具体原因.     

Temporal variability of solute transport under vadose zone conditions

The heterogeneity of the solute flux field in the horizontal plane at the field scale has been documented in several field studies. On the other hand, little information is available on the persistence of certain solute transport scenarios over consecutive infiltration cycles. This study was initiated to analyse the recurrence of solute leaching behaviour as estimated in two soil column tests emphasizing the preferential flow phenomenon. Twenty-four small-sized soil samples were subjected to two consecutive unsaturated steady-state flow leaching experiments with bromide as tracer. Observed breakthrough curves (BTCs) were analysed by the method of moments and by the advection–dispersion equation (ADE) to classify solute behaviour. Frequency distributions of the parameters indicating the solute velocity were heavily skewed or bimodal, reflecting the broad variability of the leaching scenarios, including some with pronounced preferential solute breakthrough. Exclusion of the preferential flow columns from our calculations revealed an average amount of 37% of immobile water. The large-scale BTCs derived from assembling the individual concentration courses of each run showed similar features, such as an early bromide breakthrough. However, two distinct apices, viz. one preferential and one matrix, were observed only in the first run, whereas the concentration decrease between the peaks was missing from the second run. A change in soil structure with continuous leaching was presumed to modify the interplay of the various flow domains, thereby altering the spreading of the BTCs. Correlation analysis between parameters of both tests suggests that preferential transport conditions are likely to occur at the same locations in the field over several infiltration cycles, whereas the ‘classical’ or expected matrix flow is time variant and therefore seems to be hardly predictable. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南京市强降水天气长期动态及变异性规律

基于南京市1951～2016年汛期(6～9月)各月降水资料,分析研究区强降水天气的长期动态及变异性规律。长期动态结果表明,近66年来南京市强降水天气发生频率显著增加,平均每10年增加0.31次;不同规模强降水中,暴雨、大暴雨天气发生频率均呈增加趋势,其中暴雨天气呈显著增加。多年(7a、10a、15a)月际排序值滑动标准差均通过置信度99%显著性检验,强降水天气变异性呈显著下降趋势;强降水天气汛期盛行月份趋于集中(7月),月间格局趋于稳定,与多年的月际排序值滑动标准差得出强降水天气变异性呈下降趋势的结论相吻合。     

1966-2016年重庆南川降水的多尺度分析

利用1966–2016年南川国家站的逐日降水观测资料,分析了南川降水的年内分布及次季节变化和暴雨的气候变化特征、年际、年代际和趋势变化特征。结果表明：南川降水的年内分布差异大,降雨量峰值出现在6月,月降水强度最大在7月;南川的降水具有明显的次季节变化,且准双周变化信号（10–25天）大于低频季节内振荡（25–90天）;南川的暴雨日数和暴雨量与年降雨量有很好的正相关性;暴雨出现在3–11月,其分布呈单峰型,峰值出现在6月;年平均暴雨日为2.5d,暴雨日数年际变化的线性趋势不显著;暴雨日总降水量在1966–1994年存在10–12a的年代际变化信号,在1996–2016年主要存在13–15a的年代际变化信号,在1976–1984年还存在2–4a的年际变化信号;南川的暴雨特征量年际、年代际变化大,但没有显著的升降趋势,说明南川暴雨的总体气候特征是比较平稳的。     

Seismic reliability assessment and the nonergodicity in the modelling parameter uncertainties

Modelling uncertainty can significantly affect the structural seismic reliability assessment. However, the limit state excursion due to this type of uncertainty may not be described by a Poisson process as it lacks renewal properties with the occurrence of each earthquake event. Furthermore, considering uncertainties related to ground motion representation by employing recorded ground motions together with modelling uncertainties is not a trivial task. Robust fragility assessment, proposed previously by the authors, employs the structural response to recorded ground motion as data in order to update prescribed seismic fragility models. Robust fragility can be extremely efficient for considering also the structural modelling uncertainties by creating a dataset of one-to-one assignments of structural model realizations and as-recorded ground motions. This can reduce the computational effort by more than 1 order of magnitude. However, it should be kept in mind that the fragility concept itself is based on the underlying assumption of Poisson-type renewal. Using the concept of updated robust reliability, considering both the uncertainty in ground motion representation based on as-recorded ground motion and non ergodic modelling uncertainties, the error introduced through structural reliability assessment by using the robust fragility is quantified. It is shown through specific application to an existing RC frame that this error is quite small when the product of the time interval and the standard deviation of failure rate is small and is on the conservative side.     

Dynamics and driving mechanisms of asymmetric human water consumption during alternating wet and dry periods

Increases in human water consumption (HWC) and consequent degradation of the ecological environment are common in arid regions. Understanding the mechanisms behind these processes is important for sustainable development. Analyses of changes in HWC between alternating wet and dry periods are carried out in four arid inland basins in Central Asia and China (Syr Darya, Tarim, Heihe and Shulehe river basins). Based on runoff records, the presence of an asymmetric HWC response is proved (p < 0.01), with an increase in HWC during wet periods and a muted decrease during subsequent dry periods. This behaviour is interpreted by invoking theories from behavioural economics at the individual and community levels. A simple model based on these theories is shown to be able to reproduce the observed dynamics and is used to discuss the importance of strengthening institutional factors for water sustainability.     

Beerkan multi-runs for characterizing water infiltration and spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties across scales

A method is presented for characterizing the spatial variability of water infiltration and soil hydraulic properties at the transect and field scales. The method involves monitoring a set of 10 Beerkan runs distributed over a 1-m length of soil, and running BEST (Beerkan estimation of soil transfer parameters) methods to derive hydraulic parameters. The Beerkan multi-runs (BMR) method provides a significant amount of data at the transect scale, allowing the determination of correlations between water infiltration variables and hydraulic parameters, and the detection of specific runs affected by preferential flow or water repellence. The realization of several BMRs at several transects on the same site allows comparison of the variation between locations (spatial variability at the field scale) and at the transect scale (spatial variability at the metre scale), using analysis of variance. From the results, we determined the spatial variability of water infiltration and hydraulic parameters as well as its characteristic scale (transect versus field).     

Spatiotemporal variations of dissolved inorganic carbon and controlling factors in a small karstic catchment,Southwestern China

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is the most important carbon component in karst aquatic system where fluid is highly transmissive, but has rarely been examined in the subtropical karst critical zone (K-CZ). In this study, concentrations of dissolved solutes and isotopic compositions of DIC (δ¹³C_DIC) at 11 sites of a 73.4 km² karstic catchment in Southwestern China were analysed monthly in order to uncover the spatiotemporal variations of both DIC and its dominant sources, and to identify relevant controlling factors. Both DIC concentrations and δ¹³C_DIC were highly variable, ranging from 2.52 to 5.85 mmol l⁻¹ and from −15.7 to −4.5‰, respectively. DIC in underground water (UGW) was higher in concentration and more depleted in ¹³C compared to surface water (SFS). DIC concentrations showed an inconsistent seasonal trend with other solutes, with higher values in the wet season at some sites. δ¹³C_DIC values were lower in the wet season than in the dry season. The results of mixing model IsoSource revealed spatiotemporal patterns of DIC sources. During the dry season, carbonate weathering was the primary contributor to DIC in UGW (excluding in the middle reaches). However, during the wet season, soil CO₂ was the dominant source of DIC in both UGW and SFS, and it was higher than in the dry season. Overall, there are significant spatiotemporal disparities and highly transmissive characteristics of both DIC and its sources in the K-CZ, which are controlled by multiple factors. This study also highlights that rainfall may play a crucial role in accelerating carbon dynamics in the K-CZ. High-frequency sampling campaigns in high-flow periods and deep analyses are needed in future work to elucidate the related processes and mechanisms. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tropical cyclones and multiscale climate variability: The active western North Pacific Typhoon season of 2018

The 2018 typhoon season in the western North Pacific(WNP) was highly active, with 26 named tropical cyclones(TCs) from June to November, which exceeded the climatological mean(22) and was the second busiest season over the past twenty years. More TCs formed in the eastern region of the WNP and the northern region of the South China Sea(SCS). More TCs took the northeast quadrant in the WNP, recurving from northwestward to northward and causing heavy damages in China's Mainland(69.73 billion yuan) in 2018. Multiscale climate variability is conducive to an active season via an enhanced monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high in the WNP. The large-scale backgrounds in 2018 showed a favorable environment for TCs established by a developing central Pacific(CP) El Ni?o and positive Pacific meridional mode(PMM)episode on interannual timescales. The tropical central Pacific(TCP) SST forcing exhibits primary control on TCs in the WNP and large-scale circulations, which are insensitive to the PMM. During CP El Ni?o years, anomalous convection associated with the TCP warming leads to significantly increased anomalous cyclonic circulation in the WNP because of a Gill-type Rossby wave response. As a result, the weakened subtropical high and enhanced monsoon trough shift eastward and northward, which favor TC genesis and development. Although such increased TC activity in 2018 might be slightly suppressed by interdecadal climate variability, it was mostly attributed to the favorable interannual background. In addition, high-frequency climate signals,such as intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) and synoptic-scale disturbances(SSDs), interacted with the enhanced monsoon trough and strongly modulated regional TC genesis and development in 2018.