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181.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract The management of water excesses and deficits is a major task in semiarid Mediterranean regions, where the variability of rainfall inputs is high at different time and space scales. Thus intense hydrometeorological events, which generate both potential resource and hazards, are of major interest. A simple method is proposed, with the example of the Skhira basin (192 km2) in central Tunisia, to account for the event space–time variability of rainfall in a rainfall–runoff model, in order to check its influence on the shape, magnitude and timing of resulting hydrographs. The transfer function used is a geomorphology-based unit hydrograph with an explicit territorial significance. Simulations made for highly variable events show the relevance of this method, seen as the first step of a downward approach, and its robustness with respect to the quality and the density of rainfall data. 相似文献
182.
The variability of water chemistry on a daily scale is rarely addressed due to the lack of records. Appropriate tools, such as typologies and dimensionless indicators, which permit comparisons between stations and between river materials, are missing. Such tools are developed here for daily concentrations (C), specific fluxes or yields (Y) and specific river flow (q). The data set includes 128 long‐term daily records, for suspended particulate matter (SPM), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved and total nutrients, totalling 1236 years of records. These 86 river basins (103–106 km2) cover a wide range of environmental conditions in semi‐arid and temperate regions. The segmentation—truncation of C–q rating curves into two parts at median flows (q50) generates two exponents (b50inf and b50sup) that are different for 66% of the analysed rating curves. After segmentation, the analysis of records results in the definition of nine major C–q types combining concentrating, diluting or stable patterns, showing inflexions, chevron and U shapes. SPM and TDS are preferentially distributed among a few types, while dissolved and total nutrients are more widely distributed. Four dimensionless indicators of daily variability combine median (C50, Y50), extreme (C99, Y99) and flow‐weighted (C*, Y*) concentrations and yields (e.g. C99/C50, Y*/Y50). They vary over two to four orders of magnitude in the analysed records, discriminating stations and river material. A second set of four indicators of relative variability [e.g. (Y*/Y50)/(q*/q50)], takes into account the daily flow variability, as expressed by q*/q50 and q99/q50, which also vary over multiple orders of magnitude. The truncated exponent b50sup is used to describe fluxes at higher flows accounting for 75% (TDS) to 97% (SPM) of interannual fluxes. It ranges from ? 0·61 to + 1·86 in the database. It can be regarded as the key amplificator (positive b50sup) or reductor (negative b50sup) of concentrations or yields variability. C50, Y50, b50sup can also be estimated in discrete surveys, which provides a new perspective for quantifying and mapping water quality variability at daily scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
183.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract Abstract The geographical context and hydroclimatology of the English Lake District means that the region is an important monitor of changes to nationally significant environmental assets. Using monthly rainfall series for sites in and around the central Lake District, a continuous ~200-year precipitation index was constructed for a representative station close to Grasmere. The bridged series shows a significant decline in summer rainfall since the 1960s, offset by increases in winter and spring that are strongly linked to North Atlantic forcing. Over longer time periods, the index exhibits several notable dry (1850s, 1880s, 1890s, 1930s, 1970s) and wet (1820s, 1870s, 1920s, 1940s, 1990s) decades. These patterns are strongly reflected by reservoir inflow series and by indicators of the biological status of the region’s freshwater lakes. It is argued that long-term climate indices will become increasingly important as managers seek to evaluate recent and project environmental changes within the context of long-term natural variability. 相似文献
184.
The spatial distribution of rock properties in porous media, such as permeability and porosity, often is strongly variable. Therefore, these properties usefully may be considered as a random field. However, this variability is correlated frequently on length scales comparable to geological lengths (for example, scales of sand bodies or facies). To solve various engineering problems (for example, in the oil recovery process) numerical models of a porous medium often are used. A need exists then to understand correlated random fields and to generate them over discretized numerical grids. The paper describes the general mathematical methods required to do this, with one particular method (the nearest neighbor model) described in detail. How parameters of the mathematical model may be related to rock property statistics for the nearest neighbor model is shown. The method is described in detail in one, two, and three dimensions. Examples are given of how model parameters may be determined from real data. 相似文献
185.
Several physically based stochastic dynamic models (SDM) are described including year-to-year variations of water volume in terminal and non-terminal lakes, streamflow of lake-fed rivers, and salinity of an inland sea (the Sea of Azov). All of these models are based upon the SDM of water volume of terminal lakes developed by Kritzky and Menkel in 1946 in co-operation with Kolomogorov. Explicit formulae are derived for second order statistical moments of the output processes, including variance, correlation function, spectra, etc., under the assumption that the forcing functions from stationary random sequences. The least-squares prediction problem is solved for both stationary and non-stationary cases. Some of the processes are shown to possess high statistical predictability. Actual predictions are compared with independent observations. Problems for further study are stated. 相似文献
186.
Boon-khean Cheang 《Journal of Earth System Science》1993,102(1):219-239
Interannual variations of the monsoons have been studied utilising homogeneous rainfall records of 41 years (1951–1991) from
Malaysia and upper air data of stations in Asia, Australia and Western Pacific. Sources of upper air data are U.S. Department
of Commerce and Kuala Lumpur Northern Winter Monsoon Activity Centre. Extreme wet and dry years have been identified and the
influence of ENSO on Malaysian annual rainfall has been discussed. Influence of ENSO on the performance of northern summer
and winter monsoons has also been studied from Malaysian rainfall data. Further, regional circulation patterns associated
with El Nino and La Nina years have also been identified. No linear trend has been found in the annual rainfall of 16 stations
in Malaysia. Most El Nino years are associated with below median and La Nina years with above median rainfall at most stations
in Malaysia. ENSO has greater influence over East Malaysia than peninsular Malaysia. Interannual variability of rainfall with
reference to ENSO conditions has been discussed in details. Also, circulation features have been identified to foresee El
Nino/La Nina events. 相似文献
187.
R. R. Kelkar 《Journal of Earth System Science》1993,102(1):271-281
This paper discusses the use of satellite data for studying climate change, with particular emphasis on the inter-annual variability
of the Indian southwest monsoon. Precipitation estimates made from INSAT-1B radiance data are shown to bring out the variations
that occurred in the monsoon rainfall of 1987 and 1988. Outgoing Longwave Radiation derived from INSAT-1B shows good correspondence
with precipitation patterns. 相似文献
188.
189.
Gregory J. Carbone 《The Professional geographer》1995,47(1):30-40
The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances. 相似文献
190.
Alexandra Schmäh 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,9(2):99-108
In paleolimnology, subfossil head capsules of chironomids play an important role as ecological indicators of lake history. It is important to determine, therefore, whether fossil assemblages are representative of former biocoenoses. There is evidence that headcapsules washed in from other places can make up a significant percentage of the total. As interpretations are usually drawn from the examination of a single core, it is of special interest to know whether a fossil assemblage of a single site properly reflects limnological conditions of the whole lake. This study examined the taxonomic distribution of subfossil chironomids in the surficial sediments of the Bodensee-Untersee, with the aim of assessing the variability in chironomid assemblages. Apparently, most of the head capsules of the profundal fossil assemblages in the Untersee had been washed in from the littoral zone or from the slope. Although the Bodensee-Untersee is a rather large lake, variability is surprisingly low among all samples. Therefore a correct interpretation from a single core may be possible. 相似文献