径向基神经网络模型在杭州湾北岸岸线变化中的应用

基于杭州湾北岸龙泉—南竹港弧形岸段实测岸滩断面与长江入海控制站大通站年输沙量资料,对杭州湾北岸岸线的变化及其趋势进行探讨。研究结果表明：受长江入海泥沙减少以及热带气旋和人类活动作用等影响,近10年来杭州湾北岸岸滩处于侵蚀状态。灰色关联分析进一步揭示,杭州湾北岸不同等深线的进退对长江入海泥沙减少的响应在时间尺度上有一定的滞后。同时,不同等深线的进退亦展现较强的相关性特征。鉴于此,利用大通年输沙量和不同等深线进退的耦合关系,进一步构建了基于长江入海泥沙和杭州湾北岸等深线变化的径向基神经网络岸线预报模型,其中模型输入向量为当年大通站年输沙量和杭州湾北岸-3m、-5m、-8m等深线距离大堤的位置,输出向量为次年0m岸线距离大堤的位置。经检验,构建的径向基神经网络岸线预报模型误差小于20%,可用以预报杭州湾北岸岸线的动态变化。     

Sedimentology,palaeoenvironments and biostratigraphy of the Pliocene–Pleistocene carbonate platform of Grande‐Terre (Guadeloupe,Lesser Antilles forearc)

Pliocene and Pleistocene deposits from Grande‐Terre (Guadeloupe archipelago, French Lesser Antilles) provide a remarkable example of an isolated carbonate system built in an active margin setting, with sedimentation controlled by both rapid sea‐level changes and tectonic movements. Based on new field, sedimentological and palaeontological analyses, these deposits have been organized into four sedimentary sequences (S1 to S4) separated by three subaerial erosion surfaces (SB0, SB1 and SB2). Sequences S1 and S2 (‘Calcaires inférieurs à rhodolithes’) deposited during the Late Zanclean to Early Gelasian (planktonic foraminiferal Zones PL2 to PL5) in low subsidence conditions, on a distally steepened ramp dipping eastward. Red algal‐rich deposits, which dominate the western part of Grande‐Terre, change to planktonic foraminifer‐rich deposits eastward. Vertical movements of tens of metres were responsible for the formation of SB0 and SB1. Sequence S3 (‘Formation volcano‐sédimentaire’, ‘Calcaires supérieurs à rhodolithes’ and ‘Calcaires à Agaricia’) was deposited during the Late Piacenzian to Early Calabrian (Zones PL5 to PT1a) on a distally steepened, red algal‐dominated ramp that changes upward into a homoclinal, coral‐dominated ramp. Deposition of Sequence S3 occurred during a eustatic cycle in quiet tectonic conditions. Its uppermost boundary, the major erosion surface SB2, is related to the Cala1 eustatic sea‐level fall. Finally, Sequence S4 (‘Calcaires à Acropora’) probably formed during the Calabrian, developing as a coral‐dominated platform during a eustatic cycle in quiet tectonic conditions. The final emergence of the island could then have occurred in Late Calabrian times.     

新疆天山造山带新生代多期次剥露作用过程

天山造山带新生代剥露过程一直受到普遍关注.对沿横穿天山的乌鲁木齐-库尔勒公路胜利达坂以南段采集的基岩样品进行了详细的磷灰石裂变径迹分析.热史模拟结果显示,该段天山的新生代剥露历史分为两个阶段,即古近纪期间的缓慢剥露阶段和中新世以来的快速剥露阶段,其剥露速率分别为＜30m/Ma和70～ 160m/Ma.综合分析前人在东天山、北天山以及南天山等天山不同区域取得的低温热年代学数据,我们认为,新生代天山造山带可能经历了4次快速剥露过程,分别开始于新生代早期(67 ～ 65Ma)、始新世中期(约40±5Ma)、渐新世末-中新世中期(约20±5Ma)以及中新世中晚期(约10±2Ma).这4次快速剥露过程分别发生于造山带的某一或某些区域,表明新生代天山地区的剥露过程存在明显的空间差异性.从整个天山造山带来看,渐新世末-中新世中期开始的快速剥露影响范围可能最广,是新生代天山地区一次重要的剥露作用过程.     

Pedogeochemistry and micromorphology of oxisols – A basis for understanding etchplanation in the Araucárias Plateau (Southern Brazil) in the Late Quaternary

Approximately five years ago, the Working Group on Ancient Surfaces and Long-Term Landscape Evolution was created to raise planed surfaces in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay with the aim of establishing regional correlations of planed surfaces after the formation of the Gondwanan rocks in South America. In Brazil, planed surfaces were recognized and classified between 1940 and 1960 and were given various designations and different age estimates based on regional morphostratigraphic correlation attempts. In the last twenty years, the assumptions of those attempts began to be questioned on a large scale by studies in which empirical observations, mediated by the use of new methodologies, did not indicate such a direct relationship between the paleosurfaces and their long-term erosive origin. We identified eight staggered surfaces in the Araucárias Plateau, Southern Brazil, between the Iguazu and Uruguay Rivers. Initially, we attempted to understand the planed surfaces as classic pediplains, but we found weathering profiles of different thicknesses with oxisols downstream of the knickpoints, instead of correlative deposits. We understand these surfaces as planed surfaces or paleosurfaces without erosive interrelation between them, resulting from the action of etchplanation processes. This idea contradicts the classical perspective of Brazilian geomorphology that attributes the cyclical alternation of Quaternary paleoclimates to the evolution of the model of the subtropical landscapes. The hypothesis begins from the assumption that the model evolved from the binomial morphogenesis/pedogenesis in phase with the glacial/interglacial cycles. In this study, we attempt to demonstrate that the climactic controls on morphogenesis/pedogenesis are mediated by the responses of the weathered mantle on the scale of its chemical and microstructural organization, which does not always validate previous theoretical assumptions. In this article, we use the chemical composition, weathering indices, iron, mineralogy of the clays and micromorphology of the oxisols of surface 6 to propose a first approximation of the evolution of the planed surfaces regarding etchplanation in southern Brazil. The surfaces' pedogeochemical and micromorphological properties reveal the following: a) hydrolysis is the main process of geochemical loss of geomorphic surfaces; b) geochemical erosion is more intense in the glacial periods, when the decreased temperature favors slower weathering in a more continuous manner; c) the pedobioclimatic imbalance generated by the input in interglacial periods favors mechanical erosion of the ground surface due to the substitution of the structure in blocks by microaggregates, which reduces the cohesiveness of the mantles of alteration; d) morphogenesis is most important in interglacial periods, promoting the truncation of oxisols; e) the oxisols from the remnants of the planed surfaces are actually renewed profiles younger than 500 Ky BP; f) models of long-term chemical denudation must take into consideration short-duration changes (≤25 Ky) in the pedogeochemical and structural processes of the solum.     

Spatio-temporal variability of bedload transport rate: analysis and 2D modelling approach

Field measurements to calibrate numerical bedload formulae are largely missing. Measurements using a Large Helley-Smith sampler were performed over a period of five years in the large Alpine Drau River, Austria. Our results reveal the high spatio-temporal variability of bedload transport rates. Commonly used bedload predictors poorly describe measured transport rates. Temporal and localised cross-sectional variation in bedload transport rates are observed in short time frames. To obtain significant mean values, the measurement period has to be extended to cover the existing bedload transport periodicity. The discrepancy between bedload transport measurements and simulation is partially explained by local hydraulic variations. The results can be improved, particularly for verticals where most of the bedload occurs, by relating measured transport rates to local hydraulic parameters. The incorporation of local cross-sectional parameters demonstrates the utility of 2D bedload models and their greater predictive power over similar 1D models.     

县级地名时空数据库的设计与实现

地名是最常用的社会公共信息之一,本文顾及地名的时空特性,基于地名的变更,结合基态修正模型和序列快照模型理论思想,以关系数据库为实现平台,设计了县级地名时空数据库,解决了分类存储地名数据的数据库的臃肿问题.并以福鼎市地名变更为例,实现地名时空数据库,给出了新增地名、地名更新、地名注销和数据库查询等方面的实例分析.     

福建近岸悬浮泥沙浓度遥感监测

本文研究利用遥感技术监测大面积海域的悬浮泥沙浓度(SSC)、综合探究福建近岸SSC的时空变化规律:采用前人通过实测资料建立的福建近岸海域的SSC反演模型,选取不同时相的MODIS数据集,利用IDL&ENVI对福建近岸海域的SSC进行遥感反演,并从SSC的基本分布模式、随潮汐变化、随季节变化和随风场变化等4个方面进行时空变化分析.结果表明,福建近岸海域SSC由近岸向外岸逐渐降低;大潮时的SSC高于小潮时的SSC;福建省三大流域入海处的SSC在秋季最高;此外,SSC的分布受风速和风向的影响很大.     

The mirage water concept and an index-based approach to quantify causes of hydrological changes in semi-arid regions

ABSTRACT

In semi-arid regions, reduced river flows present is a major challenge in water resources management. We present a new standardized contribution of rainfall to runoff index (SCRI) for evaluating changes in rainfall contribution to river flow. We employ the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized discharge index (SDI) and SCRI to characterize meteorological drought, hydrological drought and land-use change impacts on river flow, respectively. These indices are applied to the Mond River Basin (Iran), which is regulated by the Salman Farsi and Tangab dams since 2006. A new concept called “mirage water” is proposed that represents the reduced water delivery to downstream areas due to new developments and water withdrawals in headwater tributaries. In particular, mirage water accounts for changes in upstream water consumption between the planning phase and construction/operation life of dams. We recommend that this concept be used for communication with decision-makers and managers to clarify the need for revising dimensions of planned dams.     

2010年4月14日玉树Ms7.1地震对余震的触发研究

This paper calculates the static stress changes generated by the Yushu M_S 7. 1 earthquake in Qinghai Province. On the basis of regional stress,we take account of the static stress change triggered by the Yushu M_S 7. 1 earthquake to find the optimally oriented fault planes,then calculate the Coulomb stress change on the optimally oriented fault plane. The results indicate that most of the aftershocks are triggered by the mainshock. The image of Coulomb stress changes is also in accord with regional earthquakes ( M_L ≥3. 0 ) distribution,but the value is lower than 0. 01MPa. In addition,this paper calculates the Coulomb stress changes in the case that the aftershock fault plane is the same as the main shock. Through comparison,we find that the image of Coulomb stress changes obtained using the "optimally oriented fault"approach is more consistent with the distribution of Yushu aftershocks and regional earthquakes.