时空透视与成因探测:大型展会网络信息扩散规律与驱动机制北大核心CSCDCSSCI

展会是一个信息密集型行业,网络信息扩散对大型展会可持续发展至关重要。然而,当前研究主要从微观层面为展会信息传播提供理论指导,较少从宏观层面探讨大型展会网络信息扩散规律及其影响因素。因此,本研究以广交会为例,引入网络大数据衡量网络信息扩散量,通过地理空间分析和地理探测器等方法分析大型展会网络信息扩散的时空规律与成因逻辑。结果表明:①大型展会网络信息扩散显示出时效变化的复杂过程,呈现出六阶段非线性特征的生命周期:酝酿期、增长期、爆发期、反复期、衰退期和消亡期,且具有“前兆效应”和“后事件效应”。②大型展会网络信息扩散整体呈现出由“东南”向“西北”递减的稳定空间格局,具有明显的距离衰减、经济趋向性和信息通达性等空间规律。③网络信息扩散形成了酝酿期本地集中性最强,随着时间推移本地集中性被削弱,并在爆发期后达到稳定的时空格局。④经济因素、展会发展规模和信息化水平是大型展会网络信息扩散的核心拉力因素,空间距离为核心阻力因素,这些探测因子共同构成了大型展会网络信息扩散的驱动机制。本研究不仅从理论上揭示了大型展会网络信息扩散的时空规律,还厘清了网络信息扩散空间格局的核心影响因素和辅助影响因素,并系统地构建了驱动机制,拓展了大型展会网络信息研究的理论体系及内容框架,为强化展会网络信息管理及促进展会行业可持续发展提供理论指导。     

中国旅游产业发展间接就业带动能力测算及其时空差异

旅游产业快速发展不仅直接就业效应大,而且对其他行业的间接就业带动能力更为显著。本文结合旅游剥离系数和投入产出分析方法,构建旅游产业发展的间接就业带动能力测算模型,利用Dagum基尼系数分解其时空差异演变,基于中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的面板数据对旅游产业发展间接就业带动能力及其时空差异进行实证测算。结果显示：中国旅游产业间接就业带动规模从2000年的2684.6万人增长到2019年的4894.9万人,旅游产业发展间接就业带动能力显著提高;各省份旅游产业发展间接就业带动能力存在明显差距,总体上表现为东、中、西部地区依次递减;纵向比较来看,旅游间接就业带动作用有效突破了胡焕庸线的约束,但带动作用较强的地区主要集中在胡焕庸线东南半壁;对不同产业的间接就业带动能力差异显著,其中,对农林牧渔业和制造业的间接就业带动能力最突出;旅游行业内部比较来看,旅游交通运输、仓储和邮政通讯业、旅游住宿和餐饮业的间接就业带动能力处于主导地位;旅游间接就业带动能力总体差异呈收敛趋势,这种总体差异主要来源于地区间差距。     

中国入境旅游城市合作网络时空格局及驱动因素

基于1997—2017年中国60个城市入境旅游经济发展数据,辅以修正的引力模型和社会网络分析方法,系统分析了中国入境旅游城市合作网络时空格局,并借助二次指派程序方法对合作网络演变的驱动因素进行探讨。结果表明：① 中国60个入境旅游城市合作网络强度逐渐增强,国家层面合作网络结构逐渐显现,合作强度前5名的分别为广州—深圳、北京—上海、北京—天津、上海—苏州和上海—深圳。② 整体网络特征上,网络密度逐渐增加,整体网络通达度在提升,城市“领导者”地位在下降,网络整体均衡性在提升,且中国东、中、西三大地区间差异显著,东部地区城市合作最紧密,西部地区城市次之,中部地区城市紧密度最小。③ 个体网络特征上,将中国入境旅游城市分为外向型、内聚型、均衡发展型和孤立型4类,且权力角色上呈核心领导者、次核心领导者、一般合作者和边缘合作者的“核心—边缘”分布格局。④ 地理空间邻近性、旅游资源差异、旅游接待能力差异、城市规模等级和旅游交通情况的相近性对网络提升具有显著影响,对外经济贸易差异对中、西部地区城市旅游合作的影响是正向的,而对整体网络和东部网络的影响是负向的。     

黄土高原人口变化对县域经济系统脆弱性的影响研究

以黄土高原地区县域为例,利用敏感性?应对能力模型评估了黄土高原地区2000年以来县域经济脆弱性特征及其时空变化,并结合ArcGIS空间技术与灰色关联分析探究人口变化对县域经济脆弱性的影响作用。研究发现：① 2000年黄土高原县域经济脆弱性等级以低和较低脆弱性等级为主导,而2010年低脆弱度区域面积开始出现减少,中、高脆弱度区域面积显著增加,2017年低和较低脆弱性等级的区域占土地面积比例增加,中、高脆弱度区域面积下降。总体来说,2000—2017年黄土高原地区县域经济脆弱性整体呈现出“先升高再降低”的趋势。② 黄土高原县域经济脆弱性整体呈现“南高北低”的空间格局,处于高和较高水平的县区主要集中在甘肃东部部分县域和山西西部县域;中等水平的县区集中分布于甘肃省庆阳、平凉市东部县域、山西省大同、忻州市部分县域以及山西西部部分县域;省会城市所辖县区、地市周边地区的脆弱性水平最低。③ 表征人口变化的人口外流率、性别比和老年人口比重是影响黄土高原县域经济脆弱性关键因素,且不同时期人口变化对经济脆弱性的影响因素存在分异。     

湿地土壤气体排放对水位变化响应的持续性动态特征

为探索湿地水位变化与土壤气体排放之间的关系,对黄河中游芦苇湿地进行了半注水和满注水样地处理后的动态监测,对比了7 d水位变化过程中土壤气体排放差异。结果表明：注水造成了土壤CO₂排放速率的显著差异;随土壤温度上升,H₂O、CO₂、H₂S排放速率都有上升趋势（满注水样地的H₂O除外）;半注水和满注水造成的影响,H₂O排放速率表现为趋同-异步-消失的特征,在注水前期（63.73 h）半注水和满注水差异基本一致,后期差异较大,直至125.64 h后注水的影响才消失,总体分别造成H₂O排放总量76.3%和31.3%的增加;CO₂排放速率表现为异步-趋同的特征,注水初期环境的改变造成CO₂排放的一致减少,37.69~68.66 h二者出现明显差异,68.66~125.64 h水位虽然恢复,但差异仍然存在,注水分别造成CO₂排放总量50.1%和43.2%的减少;H₂S排放速率表现为无变化-异步-无变化的特征,总体造成H₂S排放总量42.3%和32.3%的增加。研究追踪了水位上升后土壤H₂O、CO₂和H₂S排放速率变化的动态过程,其影响具有异步性和持续性的特点,CO₂排放速率表现出较长的响应周期。研究结果对于河流湿地生态功能研究具有重要意义,湿地土壤气体排放对水位变化的响应滞后意味着对湿地生态功能的重要影响,其波动过程需要更长时段的精准研究。     

海洋沉积物细菌群落结构对芘和苯甲酸钠胁迫的响应

应用分子生态学方法, 研究在不同芳香族化合物胁迫下海洋沉积物中细菌群落结构的演替 规律。在实验室建立驯化系统, 在海洋沉积物中分别添加芘和苯甲酸钠, 采用Illumina MiSeq 高通量 测序技术分析实验组和对照组细菌群落16S rRNA 基因V3-V4 可变区数量的组成及变化, 研究沉积物 中添加芘、苯甲酸钠后, 微生物群落多样性和群落结构的变化。实验结果表明: 芘、苯甲酸钠极大地 降低了海洋沉积物中菌群丰度和多样性; 在添加苯甲酸钠的实验组, 变形杆菌门中海杆菌属 (Marinobacter)、假海源菌属(Pseudidiomarina)的细菌显著富集; 在添加芘实验组中拟杆菌门中的 Balneola 属、碳酸噬胞菌属(Aequorivita)极大富集。初步分析了在海洋沉积物环境中不同多环芳烃胁迫 下细菌群落结构的演替特征, 实验结果为海洋环境中针对不同芳香烃的微生物修复提供理论依据。     

Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.     

The structure and material composition of ossified aortic valves identified using a set of scientific methods

Degenerative aortic stenosis has become a common and dangerous disease in recent decades. This disease leads to the mineralization of aortic valves, their gradual thickening and loss of functionality. We studied the detailed assessment of the proportion and composition of inorganic and organic components in the ossified aortic valve, using a set of analytical methods applied in science: polarized light microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray fluorescence, X-ray diffraction, gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The sample valves showed the occurrence of phosphorus and calcium in the form of phosphate and calcium carbonate, hydroxyapatite, fluorapatite and hydroxy-fluorapatite, with varying content of inorganic components from 65 to 90 wt%, and with phased development of degenerative disability. The outer layers of the plaque contained an organic component with peptide bonds, fatty acids, proteins and cholesterol. The results show a correlation between the formation of fluorapatite in aortic valves and in other parts of the human bodies, associated with the formation of bones.     

Multi-scale variability of water discharge and sediment load into the Bohai Sea from 1950 to 2011

This paper examines the changes in the time series of water discharge and sediment load of the Yellow River into the Bohai Sea. To determine the characteristics of abrupt changes and multi-scale periods of water discharge and sediment load, data from Lijin station were analyzed, and the resonance periods were then calculated. The Mann-Kendall test, order clustering, power-spectrum, and wavelet analysis were used to observe water discharge and sediment load into the sea over the last 62 years. The most significant abrupt change in water discharge into the sea occurred in 1985, and an abrupt change in sediment load happened in the same year. Significant decreases of 64.6% and 73.8% were observed in water discharge and sediment load, respectively, before 1985. More significant abrupt changes in water discharge and sediment load were observed in 1968 and 1996. The characteristics of water discharge and sediment load into the Bohai Sea show periodic oscillation at inter-annual and decadal scales. The main periods of water discharge are 9.14 years and 3.05 years, whereas the main periods of sediment load are 10.67 years, 4.27 years, and 2.78 years. The significant resonance periods between water discharge and sediment load are observed at the following temporal scales: 2.86 years, 4.44 years, and 13.33 years. Water discharge and sediment load started to decrease after 1970 and has decreased significantly since 1985 for several reasons. Firstly, the precipitation of the Yellow River drainage area has reduced since 1970. Secondly, large-scale human activities, such as the building of reservoirs and floodgates, have increased. Thirdly, water and soil conservation have taken effect since 1985.