1960—2009年广西霾日时空变化特征

利用1960—2009年广西80个地面观测站资料,运用EOF、线性倾向估计等统计方法,分析了近50年广西霾日数的时空变化特征。结果表明:近50年广西霾日数总体呈上升趋势,与该地区人类活动和经济发展引起的污染排放增长密切相关;空间分布呈现出主要城市及其周边地区霾日多,边远地区及沿海地区霾日少的特点;广西霾天气主要发生在秋、冬季,以轻微霾 (能见度为5~10 km) 为主,且霾天气发生时的相对湿度8成以上介于70%~90%;除了空气污染之外,近50年风速呈下降趋势可能也导致更多的霾天气。     

Geometric characteristics and evolution of a tidal channel network in experimental setting

This paper reports on a laboratory study that aims to reproduce a tidal channel network, in order to enhance the understanding of the morphodynamic evolution of the channel characteristics as the network expands and finally reaches equilibrium. A high‐resolution laser system scanned the bed topography at different time steps creating multiple digital elevation models of the channel network. Two hundred and seventy individual channel segments are analyzed and cross‐correlated in terms of their width, depth and length. The laboratory results show positive linear correlations between depth and width as well as between length and width of channel segments of the network configuration at final equilibrium. In a downstream direction, channels appear to widen more than they deepen, indirectly a sign that discharge has a stronger control on channel width than on depth. In contrast to fluvial drainage networks that commonly display fractal and scale‐invariant behavior, the geometric properties of the experimental tidal creek network shows scale dependence. Channel attributes exhibit consistent patterns of exponentially decreasing abundance, with increasing creek length, depth and width. The nature of the observed exponential distributions within creek attributes (width, depth, length) allows for statistical predictability of relative creek attribute dimensions downstream and through time. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

亚印太交汇区海表温度的分布和变化特征及其对中国降水的影响

利用1967-2009年的逐月海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)资料和降水资料,以及经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)和相关分析方法,探讨了亚印太交汇区(Joining Area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Oce...     

中国近海蒸发波导的数值模拟与预报研究

利用中尺度大气模式MM5对2007年中国近海大气蒸发波导进行了全年的高分辨的数值模拟。模拟结果统计表明,整个海域蒸发波导的平均出现概率约为90%。本文重点关注强度较大的蒸发波导,详细分析了其季节分布特征及其与海洋环流和海面气象条件的相关关系。研究发现,25°N以南的开阔海域的蒸发波导出现概率全年都较高,而以北的东海西北部、黄海与渤海,蒸发波导的出现概率呈现明显的季节特征;蒸发波导的空间分布受中国近海海洋环流的强烈影响,存在1个与黑潮区域相一致的带状波导高出现概率区域,台湾暖流、黄海暖流和对马暖流使得在某些季节相应海域蒸发波导出现概率高于其周围海域。此外,本文还基于WRF模式及其3DVAR系统构建了大气波导数值预报系统,尝试对中国东南海域的蒸发波导进行数值预报。     

1991—2020年江苏省连阴雨特征与区域指数构建

利用江苏省70个县级气象基本站1991—2020年逐日降水、日照时数资料,筛选出不同等级的连阴雨事件,建立连阴雨事件库。分析了江苏省连阴雨事件的时空分布特征和典型连阴雨过程,构建了区域连阴雨指数。结果表明：1） 江苏省以强连阴雨事件为主,事件年均发生次数、日数和降水总量从北到南依次增多。2） 苏北、苏中、苏南地区连阴雨事件的年发生次数、日数和降水总量表现出较明显的年代际差异,年际波动从北到南逐渐增强。苏北地区的连阴雨事件集中于盛夏发生,苏中地区多发于初春和盛夏,苏南地区于春夏大部分时间均较为频繁,秋冬亦较常见。3） 综合考虑连阴雨事件发生日数、降水量以及事件分布面积,构建区域连阴雨指数,以反映某一区域的连阴雨强弱情况。该指数较好地反映了2020年苏北、苏中、苏南三地区的区域连阴雨过程和强度变化。     

Settlement prediction by spatial-temporal random process using Asaoka's method

A methodology was presented for observation-based settlement prediction with consideration of the spatial correlation structure of soil. The spatial correlation is introduced among the settlement model parameters and the settlements at various points are spatially correlated through these geotechnical parameters, which naturally describe the phenomenon. The method is based on Bayesian estimation by considering both prior information, including spatial correlation and observed settlement, to search for the best estimates of the parameters at any arbitrary points on the ground. Within the Bayesian framework, the optimised selection of auto-correlation distance by Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) is also proposed. The application of the proposed approach in consolidation settlement prediction using Asaoka's method is presented in this paper. Several case studies were carried out using simulated settlement data to investigate the performance the proposed approach. It is concluded that the accuracy of the settlement prediction can be improved by taking into account the spatial correlation structure and the proposed approach gives the rational prediction of the settlement at any location at any time with quantified uncertainty.     

Seasonal variation in water column conditions in the upper Gulf of Thailand

Seasonal variation in water column conditions in the upper Gulf of Thailand (UGoT) was analyzed by considering four major factors including surface heat flux, freshwater discharge, tidal and wind stirrings. The coincidence of surface heat loss, low river discharge and strong wind resulted in vertical well-mixing in December. Strong stratification developed in September and October due to large river discharge and moderate heat flux. Strong surface heating in April and May has a potential to generate strong stratification, although not as large as that in September and October due to low river discharge. Although no factors are prominent during January and March, and June and August, weak to moderate stratification results, because the influences of river discharge and surface heating are still larger than those of tidal and wind stirrings. The results of water column analysis based on monthly average data agree well with analyses derived from cruise data in the same months. Most analytical results correspond to the distributions of temperature and salinity from field observations. Disagreement, however, was found in December 2003 (cruise CU-2) when stratification in some small regions occurs in the distribution of water properties, but the water column analysis suggests vertical well-mixing. This phenomenon is triggered by non-uniform distribution of freshwater over UGoT, which is related to river discharge, monsoonal wind and current. Compared to a previous study regarding surface chlorophyll dynamics, water column conditions may be used to explain the occurrence of phytoplankton bloom in this region.     

Spatial distributions and interannual variations of snow cover over China in the last 40 years

By using the observational snow data of more than 700 weather stations,the interannual temporal and spatial characteristics of seasonal snow cover in China were analyzed.The results show that northern Xinjiang,northeastern China-Inner Mongolia,and the southwestern and southern portions of Tibetan Plateau are three regions in China with high seasonal snow cover and also an interannual anomaly of snow cover.According to the trend of both the snow depth and snow cover days,there are three changing patterns for the seasonal snow cover:The first type is that both snow depth and snow cover days simultaneously increase or decrease;this includes northern Xinjiang,middle and eastern Inner Mongolia,and so on.The second is that snow depth increases but snow cover days decrease;this type mainly locates in the eastern parts of the northeastern plain of China and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The last type is that snow depth decreases but snow cover days increase at the same time such as that in middle parts of Tibetan Plateau.Snow cover in China appears to have been having a slow increasing trend during the last 40 years.On the decadal scale,snow depth and snow cover days slightly increased in the 1960s and then decreased in the 1970s;they again turn to increasing in the 1980s and persist into 1990s.     

黑河下游地下水波动带地下水位动态变化研究

 黑河下游是生态环境特别脆弱的地区,地下水位具有重要的生态意义。研究该区域地下水位的波动变化,对于生态环境的恢复与管理具有重要的指导意义。以河流20 km缓冲区为研究区,基于观测数据对2006年地下水位与分水前（2000年）的地下水位进行对比,分析得出:随着生态输水工程的启动,地下水位在总体上得到明显升高,研究区北部横剖面线上地下水平均升高0.995 m,南部横剖面线上平均升高0.497 m。西河纵剖面上输水后地下水位在下游提升最为明显,平均水位上升2.41 m,中游提升不大,大约为0.22 m;东河纵剖面上下游水位提升比较明显,水位上升1.06 m,但中游地下水在分水后仍有显著下降,平均下降0.96 m,上游地下水位上升0.90 m。研究区不同区域地下水时间（1990—2010年）变化趋势不同。有持续上升型,有持续下降型,有下降转为上升型,2002年成为转折点;额济纳旗农业灌溉对局部地区地下水影响较大,农业用水与生态需水的矛盾逐渐显露出来。     

A length-biased version of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with application in water quality

In this article, we develop a new model based on the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution that results to be both useful and practical for environmental sciences. The density, distribution and hazard functions, moments and properties of this new model are presented. A graphical analysis of the density is also provided. Furthermore, we estimate parameters, propose asymptotic inference and discuss influence diagnostics by using likelihood methods for the new distribution. An illustrative example with real data related to water quality indicates the adequacy on the new distribution.