1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土对气候变化的响应

以1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土为研究对象,通过气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall法、多元线性回归等方法,分析最大冻土时空分布特征、年际、年代际变化,研究影响最大冻土深度变化的气象因子。结果表明：（1） 内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土冻结初日在9—11月,终日在4—6月,年内最大冻土深度出现在2—3月,深度在100~280 cm之间。（2） 最大冻土深度年际变化分为下开口抛物线型、上开口抛物线型、正弦曲线型,从最大冻土深度气候倾向率看呈现减小趋势的站点有68%。（3） 最大冻土深度年代际变化分为逐年代递减、减-增型和无明显变化规律,50%的站点在1989年以后最大冻土深度发生突变。（4） 多元线性回归表明气温冻结指数、年平均风速、年极端最低气温对最大冻土深度产生显著影响。该研究揭示了最大冻土深度存在退化的事实,为草原应对气候变化提供指导,为陆地土壤和大气碳循环交换的研究给出提示。     

阿城近50a气候变化特征分析

本文根据黑龙江省阿城市1961-2013年间的逐月气温和降水量资料,对阿城市近53 a的气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明:近53 a来阿城市年平均气温呈上升趋势,年平均气温以0.28℃/10 a的幅度上升,其中以冬季增温最为明显,春、秋季增温次之,而夏季的变化趋势则不明显。降水量的年变化略呈现下降趋势,年降水量大小存在波动变化,有一个2-3 a的变化周期,近10 a平均降水量比近50 a平均降水量减少了19 mm。     

地磁测量中日变观测的常见问题

地磁日变观测质量主要与仪器性能和观测点的环境有关。本文重点研究了目前在地磁日变测量中主要采用的HC90D氦光泵磁力仪的信号失锁问题,日变站的选址二个对于最终观测精度影响很大的问题,并提出了具体的解决方法。     

基于CA模型的佛山市建设用地动态变化研究

元胞自动机具有能模拟复杂动态系统的强大能力,本文采用了多约束条件的元胞自动机模型,以广东佛山市2000年、2006年和2012年建设用地的变化为例,从自然、社会经济发展等方面综合考虑选取了高程、坡度、人口密度、道路交通、水系等对城市建设用地发展变化起决定作用的诸多因子,利用马尔科夫概率矩阵计算2000年～2006年建设用地变化,推算建设用地转移总量。结合Logistic-CA模型和决策树-CA模型,预测模拟了2012年的建设用地分布并与实际相比较,分析其整体精度和误差来源。结果显示基于CA模型的建设用地动态发展模拟具有良好的效果,可以为城市的发展规划,过程演变提供虚拟的实验手段和科学依据。     

多时相遥感影像的变化监测方法研究

多时相遥感影像图变化监测已经在国民经济及国防建设领域得到了广泛应用。通过分析同一地域不同时相的遥感图像变化监测提供地物发生变化的信息,对资源环境数据进行更新及利用。论文围绕变化监测中的一些关键理论方法进行了研究。     

美国内政部四轮战略规划的发展趋势及特点分析

美国内政部的战略规划是该部施政纲领的集中体现。四轮战略规划的目标从2003年强调资源保护、利用与休闲娱乐的平衡,到2007年增加全球经济、环境、政治和其他因素对内政部战略规划的影响,直至2014年强调资源的娱乐、人文观赏价值,并重视培养下一代的管理责任。内政部战略定位逐渐清晰。资源保护、经济发展、休闲娱乐的相对关系发生变化,从强调三者平衡到强调资源的休闲、文化等景观价值。     

Google Earth和天地图在林地变更中的应用比较和优化

在森林资源监测过程中,特别是涉及林地变更工作时,遥感影像发挥了重要的作用。在实际工作中,上级部门下发的标准影像存在部分地区影像分辨率不高的问题,影响了林地变更工作的正常进行。为了拓展影像资源,使林地变更工作顺利进行,该文对Google Earth和天地图影像及校正配准后的精度进行比较研究,结果表明,配准前的Google Earth影像精度明显优于天地图影像;面积在1万hm^2及其以下的乡镇配准后的影像精度较高。     

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Debating clean energy: Frames,counter frames,and audiences

In the United States, both scholars and practitioners have repeatedly emphasized the importance of “issue framing” for garnering public support for climate change policy. However, the debate frequently overlooks the importance of counter frames. For every framing attempt by advocates of climate policy, there will be a counter frame by the opponents of climate policy. How do counter frames influence the effectiveness of issue framing as a communication strategy? To answer this question, we report results from a survey experiment on a nationally representative sample of 1000 Americans on clean energy policy, a key policy issue in the public debate on climate change in the United States. Overall, we find that different combinations of positive and negative frames have remarkably little effect on support for clean energy policy. A follow-up on-line survey experiment with a convenience sample of 2000 Americans suggests that the counter frames are responsible for undermining the effects of the original frames.     

Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Willamette River Basin,Oregon, USA

We investigated trends in future seasonal runoff components in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon for the twenty‐first century. Statistically downscaled climate projections by Climate Impacts Group (CIG), eight different global climate model (GCM) simulations with two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, (A1B and B1), were used as inputs for the US Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modelling System. Ensemble mean results show negative trends in spring (March, April and May) and summer (June, July and August) runoff and positive trends in fall (September, October and November) and winter (December, January and February) runoff for 2000–2099. This is a result of temperature controls on the snowpack and declining summer and increasing winter precipitation. With temperature increases throughout the basin, snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline consistently for all seasons. The decreases in the centre of timing and 7‐day low flows and increases in the top 5% flow are caused by the earlier snowmelt in spring, decreases in summer runoff and increases in fall and winter runoff, respectively. Winter runoff changes are more pronounced in higher elevations than in low elevations in winter. Seasonal runoff trends are associated with the complex interactions of climatic and topographic variables. While SWE is the most important explanatory variable for spring and winter runoff trends, precipitation has the strongest influence on fall runoff. Spatial error regression models that incorporate spatial dependence better explain the variations of runoff trends than ordinary least‐squares (OLS) multiple regression models. Our results show that long‐term trends of water balance components in the WRB could be highly affected by anthropogenic climate change, but the direction and magnitude of such changes are highly dependent on the interactions between climate change and land surface hydrology. This suggests a need for spatially explicit adaptive water resource management within the WRB under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.