Effect of rainfall uncertainty on the performance of physically based rainfall–runoff models

This paper analyses the effect of rain data uncertainty on the performance of two hydrological models with different spatial structures: a semidistributed and a fully distributed model. The study is performed on a small catchment of 19.6 km² located in the north‐west of Spain, where the arrival of low pressure fronts from the Atlantic Ocean causes highly variable rainfall events. The rainfall fields in this catchment during a series of storm events are estimated using rainfall point measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated fields is quantified using a conditional simulation technique. Discharge and rain data, including the uncertainty of the estimated rainfall fields, are then used to calibrate and validate both hydrological models following the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. In the storm events analysed, the two models show similar performance. In all cases, results show that the calibrated distribution of the input parameters narrows when the rain uncertainty is included in the analysis. Otherwise, when rain uncertainty is not considered, the calibration of the input parameters must account for all uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff transformation process. Also, in both models, the uncertainty of the predicted discharges increase in similar magnitude when the uncertainty of rainfall input increase.     

The application of geographic information technology to coastal geomorphology

With the development of modern oceanic observation technologies,coastal survey data have been experiencing a substantial growth.The integration management of the data from different disciplines,different sources and different formats has become a major research field in coastal geomorphology by using Geographic Information System (GIS).This paper puts forward a new methodology framework of GIS techniques in coastal ocean geomorphology,including data acquisition,process,analysis,and representation.It focuses on some major GIS techniques to study the land-ocean interaction mechanism,such as spatial analysis,submarine topography model and three-dimension (3D) visualization,and apply its result to coastal urban planning,harbor site selection and geomorphology environment about coral reef and islands on the continental shelf.The case studies cover the whole coastal ocean to serve the social community,economical development and diplomatic rights for decision-making all round in the coastal zone.The research shows clearly that the application of coastal multi-source geospatial platform has changed the traditional coastal geomorphology science dramatically from its research scope,fields and methods,however,as made clear in this paper,extracting accurate information from remote sensing data and GIS databases for coastal geomorphological applications is a nontrivial challenge that requires the combined knowledge and skills of information scientists and geomorphologists.     

流域生态水文模型研究进展

流域生态水文模型是全球变化下流域生态水文响应研究的重要工具,通过定量刻画植被与水文过程的相互作用及全球变化对流域生态水文过程演变的影响机制,为流域水资源管理和生态恢复提供科学支撑,是生态水文研究的前沿和热点.基于植被与水文过程相互作用规律,流域生态水文模型一方面要充分描述植被与水文过程相互作用和互为反馈机制,另一方面要...     

古尔班通古特沙漠南缘主要土壤化学特征的空间异质性

运用半方差分析和Kriging插值研究了古尔班通古特沙漠南缘典型沙垄至垄间地浅层土壤(0～30 cm)pH值、电导率、有机质及全N含量的空间变异特征。结果表明,土壤pH值、有机质及全N含量服从正态分布,电导率符合对数正态分布。半方差分析结果显示,土壤pH值、电导率符合球状模型,而有机质、全N含量符合高斯模型。除全N具有中等空间相关性外,其余的都具有强空间相关性。用Kriging插值法对未测点的参数含量进行最优估计,绘制含量分布图,从而更直观地反映研究区土壤参数空间变异特征。     

Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.     

Oxygen isotope composition and geothermometry of granulite to greenschist facies metamorphic rocks: a study from the Neoproterozoic collision-related nappe system, south of São Francisco Craton, SE Brazil

Oxygen isotope studies were carried out across units of a Neoproterozoic nappe system, south of São Francisco Craton. A temperature decrease toward the base of the system is found, consistent with a previously recognized inverted metamorphic pattern. The tectonic contact of the basal unit and the reworked southern São Francisco craton show a steep temperature gradient, suggesting that low temperature thrusting acted as the dominant tectonic process. The contrasts between the δ¹⁸O values of the Três Pontas-Varginha and Carmo da Cachoeira nappes and the differences among the samples and minerals are consistent with the preservation of sedimentary isotopic composition during metamorphism. The small differences in the δ¹⁸O values between the undeformed and the deformed calc-silicate samples (1.6‰) suggest that the δ¹⁸O value of mylonitization fluids was close to that which equilibrated with the metamorphic assemblage. The distinct δ¹⁸O values of metapelitic and calc-silicate samples and the great temperature difference from one type to the other indicate that no large-scale fluid interaction processes occurred during metamorphism. Oxygen isotopic estimations of both Três Pontas-Varginha undeformed rocks and Carmo da Cachoeira unaltered equivalents indicate δ¹⁸O values of up to 18‰. Comparison between these values and those from the ‘basement’ orthogneisses (8.3–8.5‰) indicates the latter are not sources for the metapelites.     

淮北平原浅层地下水中铁和锰的空间差异性及影响因素

通过常规和地统计学分析,查明淮北平原浅层地下水中铁锰含量的空间差异性,得出变异函数图符合指数模型,二者都由结构性因素引起。对其空间分布特征进行分析表明,铁、锰在空间呈现相同的分布趋势,超标区主要分布在地势低洼地和低山丘陵区,其含量与岩土成分、地下水所处的氧化还原环境、地下水径流条件、酸碱性等有关。     

河西走廊东部极端降水的时空分布及影响因子分析

利用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall检验法和和小波分析法,统计分析了河西走廊东部1961-2012年近52 a来暴雨日数的变化规律。结果表明：河西走廊东部年平均暴雨日数为1.2 d·a-1,多为局地暴雨,暴雨日数时空分布差异大,从南向北、从东向西暴雨日数迅速递减,暴雨最多的地方出现在祁连山北坡迎风坡的古浪县。然而,年暴雨日数变化总体呈上升趋势,其线性倾向率为0.24次·（10 a）-1,年暴雨日数最多年代出现在21世纪00年代,出现15场次;最少的年代出现在20世纪80年代,仅为6场次;区域性暴雨出现最多年代、最少年代与区域性暴雨强度呈相反态势。暴雨日数受季风变化影响显著,出现时段集中在6～8月,占全年暴雨日数的90.3%。其中8月暴雨日数最多,占总次数的48.4%;一日中暴雨主要出现在白天。采用Mann-Kendall检验法进行检验,河西走廊东部年暴雨日数增加从1963年开始,1985-2012年为显著增加,气候变暖使区域内极端降水出现次数增多。小波分析发现暴雨日数存在9 a和6 a周期。区域内年降水量与暴雨日的变化趋势相同,说明区域内极端降水日数增多导致了年降水量的增加。利用1983-2012年近32 a的NCEP再分析资料,将暴雨出现的高空环流形势归纳为副高西部西南气流型、河套阻塞高压型,大量级暴雨产生在高空河套阻塞高压型中;根据暴雨产生的物理机制,归纳总结出河西走廊东部暴雨产生的物理要素阈值。     

分布式光纤测温技术在黑河中游地表水与地下水转换研究中的应用

本研究首次应用分布式光纤测温技术,监测张掖市临泽县平川段的黑河河床表面温度与河水温度,确定了该时段黑河中游湿地临泽平川段的地表水地下水转换情况。分布式光纤测温系统温度分辨率为0.01℃,采样间距为0.25m,时间间隔为4min。通过对全长550m的河床表面温度与河水温度连续监测,分析该区段温度场动态,发现试验区河段河流受地下水补给,有地下水溢出带。通过河床表面温度与河水温度、环境温度的对比,清楚反映了该河段温度异常带的分布与变化规律,明确了地下水溢出带的位置与地下水溢出强度。     

居民购物出行时空特征及影响因素研究——基于中国时间利用调查

在市场经济日趋成熟、购物需求日益多样的今天,掌握居民购物出行规律,对合理布局商业空间、科学规划交通路网和提升公民个人福利具有积极意义。本文基于全国29个省份174个地级行政区30591位受访者的主要和次要活动时间利用调查数据,通过GIS空间分析对居民购物活动参与率、购物持续时间和由购物产生的交通出行时间进行系统分析后,构建离散选择模型探讨居民购物出行活动的影响因素。研究发现：农村和西部地区居民购物参与率较低,但持续时间较长;城镇和东部沿海地区居民的购物参与率较高,但持续时间较短;农村地区及青海、内蒙古、重庆、云南等地的城镇居民交通出行时间较长。居民购物出行受到居民个体属性、居民家庭属性以及区位条件因素综合影响,且购物参与率与持续时间在某些群体呈现一定互斥。最后,从基础设施建设、购物中心规划布局等方面提出城乡空间布局与交通发展优化的对策建议。