暖切变型江淮梅雨锋结构及其形成和维持机制

对在1991年7月上旬特别稳定的梅雨形势下持续10天的特大暴雨期作了合成和典型过程研究,并进一步探讨了暖切变型江淮梅雨锋天气系统模型。它在自由大气层表现为结构竖立的相当正压切变线和一种不同于经典地转动量近似的带状准二维运动场。边界层的浅层锋生倾斜环流以及偏于切变线轴以南的Ekman抽吸与自由大气层中基本上由积云对流加热驱动的竖直环流相互依存和耦合,造成持续的大暴雨。这种系统的初生和中断后复苏的机制可能是由斜压性极弱的副热带高空东移的短波扰动在低层“湿度锋”带紧南侧触发导致的一种带状CISK。     

Weak-contrast approximation of the elastic scattering matrix in anisotropic media

The plane-wave reflection and transmission coefficients at a plane interface between two anisotropic media constitute the elements of the elastic scattering matrix. For a 1-D anisotropic medium the eigenvector decomposition of the system matrix of the transformed elasto-dynamic equations is used to derive a general expression for the scattering matrix. Depending on the normalization of the eigenvectors, the expressions give scattering coefficients for amplitudes or for vertical energy flux.Computing the vertical slownesses and the corresponding polarizations, the eigenvector matrix and its inverse can be found. We give a simple formula for the inverse, regardless of the normalization of the eigenvectors. When the eigenvectors are normalized with respect to amplitudes of displacement (or velocity), the calculation of the scattering matrix for amplitudes is simplified.When the relative changes in all parameters are small, a weak-contrast approximation of the scattering matrix, based on the exactly determined polarization vectors in an average medium, is obtained. The same approximation is also derived directly from the transformed elasto-dynamic equations for a smooth vertically inhomogeneous medium, proving the consistency of the approximation.For monoclinic media, with the mirror symmetry plane parallel to the interface, the approximative scattering matrix is given in terms of analytic expressions for the non-normalized eigenvectors and vertical slownesses. For transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry (VTI) and isotropic media, explicit solutions for the weak-contrast approximations of the scattering matrices have been obtained. The scattering matrix for amplitudes for isotropic media is well known. The scattering matrix for vertical energy flux may have applications in AVO analysis and inversion due to the reciprocity of the reflection coefficients for converted waves.Numerical examples for monoclinic and VTI media provide good agreement between the approximative and the exact reflection matrices. It is, however, expected that the approximations cannot be used when the symmetry properties of the two media are very different. This is because the approximation relies on a small relative contrast between the eigenvectors in the two media.Presented at the Workshop Meeting on Seismic Waves in Laterally Inhomogeneous Media, Castle of Trest, Czech Republic, May 22–27, 1995.     

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.     

The origin of accretionary lapilli

Experimental investigations in a recirculating wind tunnel of the mechanisms of formation of accretionary lapilli have demonstrated that growth is controlled by collision of liquid-coated particles, due to differences in fall velocities, and binding as a result of surface tension forces and secondary mineral growth. The liquids present on particle surfaces in eruption plumes are acid solutions stable at 100% relative humidity, from which secondary minerals, e.g. calcium sulphate and sodium chloride, precipitate prior to impact of accretionary lapilli with the ground. Concentric grain-size zones within accretionary lapilli build up due to differences in the supply of particular particle sizes during aggregate growth. Accretionary lapilli do not evolve by scavenging of particles by liquid drops followed by evaporation — a process which, in wind tunnel experiments, generates horizontally layered hemispherical aggregates. Size analysis of particles in the wind tunnel air stream and particles adhering to growing aggregates demonstrate that the aggregation coefficient is highly grain-size dependent. Theoretical simulation of accretionary lapilli growth in eruption plumes predicts maximum sizes in the range 0.7–20 mm for ash cloud thicknesses of 0.5–10 km respectively.     

An integrable case of a rotational motion analogous to that of Lagrange and Poisson for a gyrostat in a Newtonian force field

The scope of the present paper is to provide analytic solutions to the problem of the attitude evolution of a symmetric gyrostat about a fixed point in a central Newtonian force field when the potential function isV ⁽²⁾.We assume that the center of mass and the gyrostatic moment are on the axis of symmetry and that the initial conditions are the following: (t ₀)=₀, (t ₀)=₀, (t ₀)=(t ₀)=₀, ₁(t ₀)=0, ₂(t ₀)=0 and ₃(t ₀)= ₃ ⁰ .The problem is integrated when the third component of the total angular momentum is different from zero (B ₁ 0). There now appear equilibrium solutions that did not exist in the caseB ₁=0, which can be determined in function of the value ofl ₃ ^r (the third component of the gyrostatic momentum).The possible types of solutions (elliptic, trigonometric, stationary) depend upon the nature of the roots of the functiong(u). The solutions for Euler angles are given in terms of functions of the timet. If we cancel the third component of the gyrostatic momentum (l ₃ ^r =0), the obtained solutions are valid for rigid bodies.     

矿产预测中成矿信息的提取和强化

成矿信息的提取是矿产预测的重要手段,其方法的有效性直接影响到预测成果的可靠性。在成矿规律研究的基础上,有意识地干预模型的构成,突出与成矿有关的信息;抑制某些成矿意义不明显和属干扰的信息,有目的地使模型向反映成矿信息的方向逼近,提高模型与矿床实际赋存地质环境的吻合程度,均是成矿信息提取和强化的内涵。本文从研究实践中总结了先验约束模型和非先验约束模型的强化方法,在新疆阿勒泰地区的地质－找矿工作中已取得     

极性转换期间地球磁场形态学研究

本文对采自中国黄土高原西峰（35.7°N,107.6°E）和段家坡（34.2°N,109.2°E）两个剖面中黄土层L8和古土壤层S8的1281块定向古地磁样品做了详细的岩石磁学和古地磁学研究.证实了Matuyama-Brunhes（M-B）极性转换带位于L8的中下部.提出了下列观点:1.M-B极性转换过程与地球磁场方向变化相联系的持续时间为3600-4500a,而与地球磁场强度变化相联系的持续时间则为8000-9000a,即强度变化存在“超前和滞后” 效应;2.M-B转换场的形态是由三次快速倒转和一次不成功的倒转构成,或者说,转换场具有快速变换极性的振荡特征;3.M-B转换过程中地球磁场并不是以轴对称的非偶极子场为主,而是偶极子场至少与非偶极子场相当;4.中国黄土-古土壤沉积物所含磁性矿物的主要成分是磁铁矿,它是研究极性转换期间地球磁场详细结构的良好物质.     

首都减灾圈的思考与建议

首都减灾圈,系首都减轻自然灾害预测防治圈。1991年12月20—21日在北京召开了《首都圈自然灾害及其减灾对策研讨会》。本文根据这次会议所提供的材料,在从整体上实现减灾的思想指导下,就首都减灾圈的“成灾背景”、“首都减灾圈的组成”、“首都减灾圈的灾害预测与防治状况”、“首都减灾圈的灾害关联性分析”、“首都减灾圈的减灾实效预估”和“首都减灾圈的减灾对策与实施”等六个带有共同性的问题,进行了讨论。供制定首都圈减灾方案时参考。     

新疆地震预报研究

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。     

新疆第四纪盐类矿产的形成和控制因素——兼论“高山深盆”成盐模式

根据袁见齐教授“高山深盆”成盐模式,探讨新疆天山对第四纪盐类矿床的形成和控制作用,阐述了天山地貌、气候、水文特征与盐类矿产的分布规律和特征。认为“高山深盆”并非一定是四周环山的深盆,可以是某一高山与其间深盆或两侧盆地的有机组合。高山的屏障作用造成了垂直的气候分带,在潮湿多雨的山区利于成盐组份的析出并迁移到干旱少雨的闭流深盆中,形成盐类矿床。