广东前汛期一次锋前暖区暴雨触发机制分析

利用ECMWF的ERAdata再分析资料、Micaps实况等数据,对2015年5月22—24日的广东大范围强降雨过程进行分析,结果表明:该次过程是一次典型的华南前汛期降雨过程,过程中存在明显的两种性质降雨,即粤西北由南支短波槽、低涡、切变线造成的锋面型暴雨,而珠江口及其东侧的暖区暴雨主要是由西南低空急流脉冲引起的;珠江口及其东侧的暖区暴雨的触发机制主要为中尺度能量锋、地面辐合线以及地形等。     

South East Europe electricity roadmap – modelling energy transition in the electricity sectors

One of the most important challenges for the South East Europe region will be replacing more than 30% of its presently installed fossil fuel generation capacity by the end of 2030, and more than 95% by 2050 if its age structure is considered. This requires a strong policy framework to incentivise new investments in a region currently lacking investors, but also presents an opportunity to shape the electricity sector over the long term according to the broader energy transition strategy of the EU and the Energy Community. The aim of this paper is to assess what type of long-term pathways exist for electricity sector development in the region if they follow the energy transition process of the EU. In this model-based scenario assessment, long term electricity sector futures are explored using a set of interlinked electricity models evaluating the level of renewable energy investment required in the region to reach a deep decarbonization target, assuming emission reduction above 94% by 2050 compared to 1990 in line with the long term market integration and climate policy goals of the EU. It also explores what are the most important system wide impacts of the high deployment of renewable energy concerning generation adequacy and security of supply.

Key policy insights

• Energy policies in the South East Europe (SEE) region, both at the national and regional level, should focus on enabling renewable energy integration, as this will be a key component of the future energy mix.

• EU and Energy Community policies should be incorporated into national energy planning to ensure that SEE countries embark on the energy transition process at an early stage.

• Stranded costs should be carefully considered in decision-making on new fossil-fuel generation and gas network investment in order to avoid lock-in to carbon intensive technologies.

• If consistent decarbonization policy prevails, with a significant and persistent CO2 price signal, the role of natural gas remains transitory in the region.

• The SEE region offers relatively cheap decarbonization options: the power sector can reduce GHG emissions above 94% by 2050 in the modelled scenarios.

     

西藏札佐晚白垩世中期埃达克岩年代学、地球化学及其构造意义

为解释南冈底斯晚白垩世埃达克质岩石成因及其地球动力学机制,本文对西藏扎囊县札佐地区二长花岗岩开展了锆石U-Pb年代学、Hf同位素和全岩地球化学分析。札佐二长花岗岩锆石U-Pb定年为80.43±0.62 Ma,其SiO₂为66.19%~66.84%,Al₂O₃为15.17%~15.48%,MgO为1.67%~1.91%,Mg#为47.4~51.5,K₂O为3.86%~4.09%,A/CNK=0.91~1.01,属准铝质高钾钙碱性岩石。岩石轻稀土富集明显,高Sr（492×10^-6~670.2×10^-6）,低Y（8.27×10^-6~14.99×10^-6）,Yb（1.07×10^-6~1.79×10^-6）,高Sr/Y（35.0~81.0）,高La/Yb（17.4~21.4）,弱负Eu异常,具埃达克岩地球化学特征。相对富集大离子亲石元素（LILE）,亏损高场强元素（HFSE）和重稀土。锆石ε_Hf（t）值为10.5~14.1,单阶段Hf模式年龄（t_DM1）为184.8~326.1 Ma,平均为203.4 Ma,二阶段Hf模式年龄（t_DM2）为247.2~476.0 Ma,平均为287.1 Ma,略大于侵位年龄,指示岩浆物质来源于俯冲洋壳,并可能卷入俯冲沉积物。岩石中地幔组分印记Mg#值和相容元素Ni、Cr含量较高,表明熔体在上升过程中与上覆地幔楔发生反应。研究分析表明,在新特提斯洋洋脊俯冲作用下,高温热流透过板片窗导致洋壳（及俯冲沉积物）部分熔融形成札佐埃达克质二长花岗岩。同时表明,在80 Ma左右,新特提斯洋仍处于洋脊俯冲阶段。     

山西省阳泉经济技术开发区南区浅层地下水质量分布特征与污染评价

研究浅层地下水的质量分布特征与污染评价对地下水资源的科学管理与保护具有重要意义。本文以山西阳泉经济技术开发区南区为例,采用单指标评价方法与综合评价方法对地下水化学组成进行分析,利用GIS技术进行质量分布分析,运用污染指数法对地下水污染进行评价,对11口新建井的91个地下水污染指标进行分析。单指标评价法与综合指标评价法的研究结果显示,YQ03和YQ11监测井为Ⅲ类水;样品YQ01和YQ09监测井为Ⅳ类水;样品YQ02、YQ04、YQ05、YQ06和YQ10监测井为Ⅴ类水。污染指数法对地下水污染的评价结果表明,YQ02、YQ04、YQ05、YQ06、YQ09和YQ10点位发生的污染主要为总硬度、溶解性总固体、硫酸盐、氯化物、铁、锰、铝、耗氧量、钠、氟化物、钡等11个指标。     

Nummulitids,lepidocyclinids and Sr-isotope data from the Oligocene of Kutch (western India) with chronostratigraphic and paleobiogeographic evaluations

Due to its intermediate geographical position between the Mediterranean and W Pacific, the Oligocene shallow-marine sequence of Kutch (India) is of key importance in paleobiogeographical interpretations. Larger benthic foraminifera (LBF) are a fundamental link for the correlation between the Mediterranean shallow benthic zones (SBZ) and the W Pacific ‘letter stages’. LBF were re-evaluated by morphometric studies of the internal test from five stratigraphic sections of the Maniyara Fort Formation. Based on their significant affinity to coeval fauna in the Mediterranean, they were assigned to W Tethyan SBZ zones, supported by Sr-isotope stratigraphy. In the Basal Member, traditionally considered as early Rupelian, we identified Nummulites bormidiensis, N. kecskemetii and Heterostegina assilinoides assigning it to the early Chattian SBZ 22B Zone. The Coral Limestone Member, previously considered as late Rupelian, is also assigned to this zone, for the presence of N. bormidiensis, Eulepidina formosoides-dilatata and Nephrolepidina morgani-praemarginata. Its early Chattian age (26.5–29 Ma) is further supported by Sr-isotope data. Miogypsinoides complanatus and Spiroclypeus margaritatus in the Bermoti Member (the top of the formation) document the late Chattian SBZ 23 Zone and the Sr-isotope data (22.5–24 Ma) place it close to the Oligocene–Miocene boundary.     

Geochemical characteristics and petrogenesis of four Palaeoproterozoic mafic dike swarms and associated large igneous provinces from the eastern Dharwar craton,India

Palaeoproterozoic mafic dike swarms of different ages are well exposed in the eastern Dharwar craton of India. Available U-Pb mineral ages on these dikes indicate four discrete episodes, viz. (1) ~2.37 Ga Bangalore swarm, (2) ~2.21 Ga Kunigal swarm, (3) ~2.18 Ga Mahbubnagar swarm, and (4) ~1.89 Ga Bastar-Dharwar swarm. These are mostly sub-alkaline tholeiitic suites, with ~1.89 Ga samples having a slightly higher concentration of high-field strength elements than other swarms with a similar MgO contents. Mg number (Mg#) in the four swarms suggest that the two older swarms were derived from primary mantle melts, whereas the two younger swarms were derived from slightly evolved mantle melt. Trace element petrogenetic models suggest that magmas of the ~2.37 Ga swarm were generated within the spinel stability field by ~15–20% melting of a depleted mantle source, whereas magmas of the other three swarms may have been generated within the garnet stability field with percentage of melting lowering from the ~2.21 Ga swarm (~25%), ~2.18 Ga swarm (~15–20%), to ~1.89 Ga swarm (~10–12%). These observations indicate that the melting depth increased with time for mafic dike magmas. Large igneous province (LIP) records of the eastern Dharwar craton are compared to those of similar mafic events observed from other shield areas. The Dharwar and the North Atlantic cratons were probably together at ~2.37 Ga, although such an episode is not found in any other craton. The ~2.21 Ga mafic magmatic event is reported from the Dharwar, Superior, North Atlantic, and Slave cratons, suggesting the presence of a supercontinent, ‘Superia’. It is difficult to find any match for the ~2.18 Ga mafic dikes of the eastern Dharwar craton, except in the Superior Province. The ~1.88–1.90 Ga mafic magmatic event is reported from many different blocks, and therefore may not be very useful for supercontinent reconstructions.     

Citizenship,abandonment and resistance in the India–Bangladesh borderland

Drawing on ethnography in the enclaves in India and Bangladesh, this paper explores a multifaceted yet enduring relationship between citizenship, abandonment and resistance. Following the partition in 1947, the enclave residents’ citizenry was enacted like other Indian or Bangladeshi citizens’ disregarding these enclaves’ trans-territorial reality. This paper will demonstrate that enclave dwellers did not live in the ‘citizenship gap’, the difference between rights and benefits of citizenship, rather they lived without any citizenship rights. Life in these enclaves was highly complex and experiences in the enclaves challenge the usefulness of citizenship as a universal framework of analysis for the people who are ranked as citizen but never have it. In this context, a combination of the reverse conceptualisation such as citizenship and Agamben’s conceptualisation of abandonment not only allows for these dimensions of lived experiences to be addressed and explored, it also focuses on the temporal aspect of citizenship implicated in politics. Finally, the paper calls for widening the consideration of the empirical study on everyday citizenship practices and experiences around the globe to extend and intensify the citizenship literatures.     

Why Delhi cannot plan its ‘new towns’: The case of solid waste management in Noida

Indian metropolises have witnessed the growth of ‘new towns’ on their peripheries over the past two decades, which have attracted investment as well as affluent residents. Most research on new towns examines the contentious politics of land acquisition and development, but less is known about urban governance and everyday life. This article focuses on solid waste management in Noida, a new town on the periphery of Delhi that has been unable to develop a large-scale waste management system, and we have two main foci. First, we show that the municipal government has sought to regulate waste collection, while waste processing and disposal have remained unregulated and this has discouraged the entry of medium and large-scale private enterprises. Second, we explore the contentious politics surrounding actually existing waste management practices that have emerged in the absence of significant public or private investment. Most waste is managed by small- and medium-sized enterprises in the informal sector, so associations that represent the so-called ‘new’ middle class must interact with informal-sector waste workers. These interactions result in moderately high levels of waste collection but waste disposal remains haphazard and this exposes the limits of the new middle class’ control over urban space. Ultimately, we show how municipal governance and the actually existing politics and practices of waste management contribute to the production of Noida’s socio-spatial landscape.     

农作物长势综合监测——以印度为例

提出农作物长势综合监测方法,利用卫星遥感得到的NDVI时间序列数据,综合采用实时监测、过程监测和时间序列聚类监测方法,明确不同方法适用的监测尺度及监测目的,对不同范围农作物长势进行监测。改进了Crop Watch全球农情遥感速报系统运行化作物长势监测方法,克服了原有作物长势监测中实时监测方法无法反映相同区域苗情在整个生长过程中的连续变化情况的缺点。实现对相同区域作物长势连续变化的定量描述,可对作物长势进行更准确的判断。利用官方发布的作物单产变幅数据,对单产变幅较大的12个作物主产省区作物长势监测结果的准确性进行判断,结果表明:6个邦的实时监测和聚类监测方法所得结果一致,都符合作物单产变化的实际状况;4个邦的聚类监测方法所得结果对作物长势监测更为准确,更符合该区域作物单产的实际变化;1个邦实时监测结果对作物长势监测比聚类监测方法更为准确;只有1个邦采用两种方法对作物长势的监测存在误差,聚类监测方法在对农作物生长过程的连续监测及空间分布的定量化表述方面,比实时监测更为准确。3种方法可以综合使用,实现业务化运行的农作物长势监测。     

苏中苏南县域城镇居民收入时空演变

针对传统的统计学方法无法有效刻画居民收入空间格局演变的不足,该文提出了一种将数理统计与空间统计相结合的方法。采用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法,研究了1989年—2011年苏中苏南地区县域单元城镇居民人均可支配收入的变化,较好地描述了收入差异的时序变化和空间格局演变特征。研究发现:县域单元的城镇居民人均可支配收入的绝对差异逐年增大,相对差异呈阶段性波动增大;同时,城镇居民人均可支配收入呈高度的空间自相关,收入水平相似的单元在空间上集聚,苏南处于高值簇,热点区聚集;苏中处于低值簇,冷点区聚集;此外,城镇居民人均可支配收入增长空间格局不稳定,冷热点区切换频繁,冷热点区呈高度集聚,其他类型区域的分布态势减弱。