中线调水前汉江中下游水量和水质本底特性及变化趋势分析

为研究南水北调中线工程调水前,汉江中下游的水量和水质本底特性及变化趋势,选择汉江中下游6个水文站及4个水质观测断面,采用数理统计、Mann-Kendall检验和Spearman秩次检验法,分别从水量和水质两个方面进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)对比分析历史长序列流量资料,1999~2013年间汉江中下游地区处于偏枯期;(2)汉江中下游水量的年际变化较大,极值比介于2.7~3.3之间。水量年内各月分配变化也较大,汛期径流量占全年的63%~66%,非汛期仅占全年的34%~37%;(3)汉江中下游地区各水文测站的年均流量序列,总体上随时间变化的趋势均不显著,但经历了1980~1990的偏丰期及1990~2013的偏枯期;(4)汉江中下游地区的水质达标情况较好,大部分年份的水质均优于III类水质标准,且水质无显著的变化趋势。     

川南先锋地区二叠系-三叠系界线附近碳酸盐微相及沉积演化

根据川南先锋地区二叠系-三叠系界线地层的沉积特征,结合钻孔岩相及其组合特征,识别出等斜碳酸盐缓坡和局限台地2种沉积相,包括高能生屑浅滩、内缓坡、潮间带等7种亚相。同时采用微相分析的方法,对碳酸盐岩的生物组合、颗粒成分以及支撑类型等微相特征进行了研究,将界线地层沉积归纳为14种微相类型,并由此建立了该时期的沉积相序及其演化。研究区产出一层微生物岩,显微镜观察显示:微生物岩主要是叠层石;在它们内部发现了大量的蓝藻球粒、钙化鞘和微亮晶包覆层等微生物成因的显微组构。对ZK1501孔所采集的0.58 m K9灰岩岩芯连续磨片后进行生物组合分析,在距底6 cm地层中发现了丰富的三叶虫、腹足类和叶枝藻化石,其上出现小型化的介形虫(小于200 μm),表明二叠纪末期生物主灭绝界线应位于飞仙关组底面之上6 cm处,而二叠系-三叠系界线应位于小型化介形虫层的中下部。     

中南部非洲的地质构造演化与矿产分布规律

中南部非洲优势矿产资源有金、铜、铁、铬、金刚石,锰、铀、镍、钒、钴、铂、锑的储量也居世界前列。主要的矿产集中分布于前寒武纪地体内,中南部非洲前寒武纪地体的形成演化决定了矿产的种类和主要成矿类型。文章总结了中南部非洲的地质构造演化以及其主要矿产资源的成矿类型和分布规律,并划分成矿区带至三级。探讨了部分主要成矿区带的成矿规律:太古宙的矿产主要与花岗-绿岩地体有关;古元古代的矿产主要分布于陆缘盆地,与岩浆作用有关;中元古代的矿产主要与岩浆作用有关,次为沉积变质作用;新元古代的矿产主要与沉积变质作用有关,次为岩浆作用。     

基于DEM的莱州湾南岸典型水系河间地提取及区域地貌演化研究

以SRTM3-DEM为数据源,在ArcGIS支持下,采用水文分析以及DEM分析数据与地质图、卫星图像和地形图区域数据综合对比分析,结合实地调查及前人研究成果,对莱州湾南岸的弥河、白浪河、潍河3条典型河流河网河间地的提取进行了研究,并对不同流域河间地比率的空间关系、流域地貌侵蚀对比与区域变化、全新世河型及河型转换以及区域地貌发展阶段进行了研究.通过DEM的水文分析、河网提取、河间地制图,得到了每条河流、每种累积流量取值下河网中的河间地,从而提出了快速提取河间地的一种新方法.区域空间上,河间地比率自西向东存在弱的增大变化.流域侵蚀综合分析表明:3条河流曾明显下切,即西部的弥河以单河道截切式下切;中部的白浪河以拓展式下切;东部的潍河呈嵌入式下切.表明西部侵蚀下切幅度大于东部(西部河流侵蚀速度快于东部),从而印证了河间地比率西小、东大的空间变化.对古河型(/河网)分析表明,全新世以来有网状河、扇状分汉河、汇聚型河、顺直河和曲流河5种河型.河型转换受控于气候变化、基准面下降和不均衡的构造抬升.将研究区全新世的河流地貌演化分为全新世早阶段、全新世中期早阶段、全新世中期晚阶段、全新世晚期早阶段和全新世晚期晚阶段5个阶段.     

Legitimization through patronage? Strategies for political control beyond ethno-regional claims in Darjeeling,India

This paper asks how contending political leaders legitimize their authority in a competitive authoritarian regime. It contends that ‘legitimization through patronage’ is an important means of convincing the public of the rightfulness of a leader’s authority when ‘ideology-based normative legitimacy’ is declining and the formal electoral route is not available. Drawing on an understanding of legitimacy that accounts for leaders’ strategies and public receptions, the paper seeks to explore the moral norms and values on the basis of which followers evaluate leaders’ performance. Drawing on anthropological studies of patronage in South Asia not only helps to transcend an exclusively instrumental understanding of patronage by stressing its moral dimension but also complements comparative politics’ focus on the national level by studying the everyday processes through which political leaders’ legitimacy is locally constructed and contested in patronage relations. Evidence from Darjeeling in northern West Bengal/India (where the State’s preferential treatment of a regional party claiming leadership of a movement for regional autonomy has contributed to the establishment of a dominant party regime) highlights patronage’s potential as a legitimating strategy – but it also reveals its practical limits. While the establishment of resource monopolies over developmental funding helped leaders of the ruling party to “feed” their support networks and foster reputations as selfless “social workers”, differing bases for the evaluation of leaders, the growing expectations of followers, and dependence on external patronage resources limited the long-term success of patronage as a legitimating strategy. This, in turn, enabled the State to curtail demands for autonomy by controlling regional elite construction.     

Changing power relations in the WTO – Why the India–U.S. trade agreement should make us worry more,rather than less,about global trade governance

This review offers a critical reading of the November 2014 India–U.S. trade deal that unblocked an impasse in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha round and considers what it means for the way we govern global trade. It argues that the agreement, rather than being a ‘victory’ for the developing world or a cause for celebration, may simply reinforce an unfair and problematic system of distributing trade opportunities among WTO members. It may also obscure further the need for a fundamental overhaul of the way global trade is governed. In so doing, the review speaks to broader debates about what happens when ‘rising’ powers replace established states in global institutions in the absence of wider processes of reform; and it adds to growing concerns about the increasing precariousness of least developed countries (LDCs) in international economic regimes.     

Hemispheric asymmetry of sunspot area in solar cycle 23 and rising phase of solar cycle 24: Comparison of three data sets

Analysis of long-term solar data from different observatories is required to compare and confirm the various level of solar activity in depth. In this paper, we study the north–south asymmetry of monthly mean sunspot area distribution during the cycle-23 and rising phase of cycle-24 using the data from Kodaikanal Observatory (KO), Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON). Our analysis confirmed the double peak behavior of solar cycle-23 and the dominance of southern hemisphere in all the sunspot area data obtained from three different resources. The analysis also showed that there is a 5–6 months time delay in the activity levels of two hemispheres. Furthermore, the wavelet analysis carried on the same data sets showed several known periodicities (e.g., 170–180 days, 2.1 year) in the north–south difference of sunspot area data. The temporal occurrence of these periods is also the same in all the three data sets. These results could help in understanding the underlying mechanism of north–south asymmetry of solar activity.     

在ENSO不同位相下青藏高原春季感热对华南盛夏降水的影响

根据青藏高原(简称高原)春季感热(Sensible Heat,SH)异常和ENSO不同位相,划分出12种类型,研究了高原春季(5月)SH异常和前冬ENSO对华南盛夏(7—8月)降水的影响及相对影响程度。结果表明:高原春季SH和前冬ENSO均对华南盛夏降水有较显著的影响,即当两者分别处于各自正(负)位相时,华南盛夏降水普遍偏少(多);通过对两者的单独作用和协同作用的分析表明,高原春季SH对华南盛夏降水贡献要更大。影响机制分析发现华南盛夏降水受西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高)和南亚高压共同影响,ENSO直接影响西太副高,而高原春季SH异常则对南亚高压作用显著,因此在两者共同影响下,两个高压的变化共同导致华南盛夏降水出现异常。      

Climate negotiations beyond Kyoto: developing countries concerns and interests

Abstract

Five years down the road from Kyoto, the Protocol that bears that city's name still awaits enough qualifying ratifications to come into force. While attention has been understandably focussed on the ratification process, it is time to begin thinking about the next steps for the global climate regime, particularly in terms of a deeper inclusion of developing countries' concerns and interests. This paper begins doing so from the perspective of the developing countries. The principal argument is that we need to return to the basic principles outlined in the Framework Convention on Climate Change in searching for a north—south bargain on climate change. Such a bargain may be achievable if we can realign the policy architecture of the climate regime to its original stated goals of sustainable development.     

黄河山东段南北展宽区的经济现状及发展对策

20世纪70年代由于防洪、防凌的需要，黄河两侧修建了南、北展宽区，受防洪的限制，展宽区内群众的经济发展相对落后。小浪底水库建成运用后，南北展宽区失去其防洪作用，该文分析了南北展宽区内经济现状和资源的优劣势，针对如何利用现有条件就资源开发、优势互补等方面提出了设想和建议。