An essay on the interactions between climate and society

There has been increasing concern about the lack of involvement by social scientists and humanists in a global change program, although many social scientists are already directly involved in various aspects of research on environmental change, and their research interests are clearly central to a global change research agenda. Based on a historical review, the role of social science disciplines as well as social science institutes in an emerging multidecadal global change program is discussed. Both “plan of action” and “plan of inaction” are suggested to avoid potential pitfalls due to the rush development of a social science program into the existing global climate change problem.     

内蒙古桌子山煤田火区特征及灭火方法探讨

内蒙古自治区桌子山煤田赋存着较为稀缺的煤种一焦煤,煤田内存在的火区不仪烧掉了宝贵的焦性煤炭资源,给煤矿生产带来严重的事故隐患,对当地生态环境也造成极大的破坏。经查明区内有26处子火区,分布面积约760万m^2,通过煤田地质特征、煤质特征、地表指示特征、同位素氡气的浓度相对分布特征、物性特征分析了区内煤层发火原因,根据桌子山煤田火区特点,建议采用浅剥、深灌与覆盖相结合的灭火方法,并对火区进行动态监测。     

地铁施工对济南白泉泉群流量的影响

为研究地铁建设对济南白泉泉群的影响，在综合分析白泉泉域地质、水文地质条件的基础上，假定研究区岩溶强径流带位置及水力性质，利用FEFLOW软件建立地下水流数值模型。以规划地铁M1号线为研究对象，分析了济南东站、梁王站、梁王东站分别施工及3个站同时施工4种情景下，采用施工降水或施工降水+人工回灌两种施工方式对白泉泉群流量的影响。结果表明：单独采用施工降水的施工方式使得白泉泉群流量衰减，其中3个站同时施工对泉流量的影响最大，泉流量最大衰减达5.48%；各站分别施工时，济南东站对泉流量影响最大，泉流量较未施工时减少了0.043×10⁴ m³/d。采用施工降水+人工回灌的施工方式，能够有效缓解泉流量的衰减，各车站施工时的泉流量衰减由仅施工降水时的2.26%~5.48%降低至0.08%~1.21%。岩溶强径流带有利于地下水形成优势径流，促进白泉泉群补给，一定程度上缓解因地铁施工引起的泉流量衰减。     

Numerical analysis of the symmetric methods

Aimed at the initial value problem of the particular second-order ordinary differential equations,y =f(x, y), the symmetric methods (Quinlan and Tremaine, 1990) and our methods (Xu and Zhang, 1994) have been compared in detail by integrating the artificial earth satellite orbits in this paper. In the end, we point out clearly that the integral accuracy of numerical integration of the satellite orbits by applying our methods is obviously higher than that by applying the same order formula of the symmetric methods when the integration time-interval is not greater than 12000 periods.     

Comparison of two methods for seismic hazard assessment in a low-seismicity area

The EGO method, developed by Egozcue et al. and the SRAMSC method, originally developed by Cornell and later programmed by McGuire, to assess the seismic hazard, are compared for the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands, and NW Germany. Using the same input data, the results of the EGO method without the majority criterion and the SRAMSC method with upper bound XII agree very well. The influence of the zoning is investigated for the EGO method. It is not necessary to define the zones for the EGO method so strictly as for the SRAMSC method, but too wide zones can give bad results.     

Upper mantle structure of the Northern Eurasia from peaceful nuclear explosion data

Several long-range seismic profiles were carried out in Russia with Peaceful Nuclear Explosions (PNE). The data from 25 PNEs recorded along these profiles were used to compile a 3-D upper mantle velocity model for the central part of the Northern Eurasia. 2-D crust and upper mantle models were also constructed for all profiles using a common methodology for wavefield interpretation. Five basic boundaries were traced over the study area: N1 boundary (velocity level, V = 8.35 km/s; depth interval, D = 60–130 km), N2 (V = 8.4 km/s; D = 100–140 km), L (V = 8.5 km/s; D = 180–240 km) and H (V = 8.6 km/s; D = 300–330 km) and structural maps were compiled for each boundary. Together these boundaries describe a 3-D upper mantle model for northern Eurasia. A map characterised the velocity distribution in the uppermost mantle down to a depth of 60 km is also presented. Mostly horizontal inhomogeneity is observed in the uppermost mantle, and the velocities range from the average 8.0–8.1 km/s to 8.3–8.4 km/s in some blocks of the Siberian Craton. At a depth of 100–200 km, the local high velocity blocks disappear and only three large anomalies are observed: lower velocities in West Siberia and higher velocities in the East-European platform and in the central part of the Siberian Craton. In contrast, the depths to the H boundary are greater beneath the craton and lower beneath in the West Siberian Platform. A correlation between tectonics, geophysical fields and crustal structure is observed. In general, the old and cold cratons have higher velocities in the mantle than the young platforms with higher heat flows.Structural peculiarities of the upper mantle are difficult to describe in form of classical lithosphere–asthenosphere system. The asthenosphere cannot be traced from the seismic data; in contrary the lithosphere is suggested to be rheologically stratified. All the lithospheric boundaries are not simple discontinuities, they are heterogeneous (thin layering) zones which generate multiphase reflections. Many of them may be a result of fluids concentrated at some critical P–T conditions which produce rheologically weak zones. The most visible rheological variations are observed at depths of around 100 and 250 km.     

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

Discrete numerical modelling of rockfill dams

The aim of this study is to obtain quantitative information on the behaviour of rockfill used in embankment dams, and particularly on the influence of block breakage on the displacement field, from a numerical analysis using the Distinct element method. A methodology is set up to define the resistance of the 2D particles so that the same probability of breaking blocks may be reproduced as in a 3D material. The model uses the discrete element code PFC^2D (Itasca Consulting Group Inc., PFC2D (Particle Flow Code in Two Dimensions), Version 3.0, 2002) and considers breakable clusters of 2D balls. The different parameters are determined from experimental data obtained from laboratory tests performed on rock blocks. The model is validated by comparing the results of the simulation of shearing tests with actual triaxial tests on rockfill material published in the literature. The numerical analysis of block crushing in an actual dam is proposed in the last part of this paper. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

Use of electrical resistivity methods for detecting subsurface fresh and saline water and delineating their interfacial configuration: a case study of the eastern Dead Sea coastal aquifers, Jordan

The alluvial aquifer is the primary source of groundwater along the eastern Dead Sea shoreline, Jordan. Over the last 20 years, salinity has risen in some existing wells and several new wells have encountered brackish water in areas thought to contain fresh water. A good linear correlation exists between the water resistivity and the chloride concentration of groundwater and shows that the salinity is the most important factor controlling resistivity. Two-dimensional electrical tomography (ET) integrated with geoelectrical soundings were employed to delineate different water-bearing formations and the configuration of the interface between them. The present hydrological system and the related brines and interfaces are controlled by the Dead Sea base level, presently at 410 m b.s.l. Resistivity measurements show a dominant trend of decreasing resistivity (thus increasing salinity) with depth and westward towards the Dead Sea. Accordingly, three zones with different resistivity values were detected, corresponding to three different water-bearing formations: (1) strata saturated with fresh to slightly brackish groundwater; (2) a transition zone of brine mixed with fresh to brackish groundwater; (3) a water-bearing formation containing Dead Sea brine. In addition, a low resistivity unit containing brine was detected above the 1955 Dead Sea base level, which was interpreted as having remained unflushed by infiltrating rain.