一次突发性暴雨的机理分析及短期预报思考

2015年9月4日白天,天津出现突发性暴雨过程,利用多种观测资料对此次过程进行分析,结果表明:偏南气流与高压底部东北风相遇,在蓟州山区以南形成辐合,触发雷暴发展;雷暴形成后,回波形成"后向传播"机制,配合中低空的南风脉动,在天津北部形成南北向的"列车效应",导致北部强降水的发生;上游的高空槽降水在近地面形成冷池,其向东辐散气流与偏东风相遇,在降水区下游触发新的雷暴,使得雨带快速东移,且当辐散气流与偏东风相遇后,出现小尺度辐合性气旋式环流,导致下游强降水增幅;当高空槽降水云团主体移过城区后,在γ中尺度辐合流场作用下,触发小尺度对流云团的生成和发展,影响天津城区再次出现强降水。在短期预报过程中,预报员在大尺度模式环境场分析的基础上,对于中尺度模式仅参考了其降水预报,而忽略了对中尺度环境场的分析,分析表明,虽然中尺度模式对此次过程的降水时段预报存在偏差,但其中尺度环境场预报,可以为此次暴雨过程在短期时效内(24h)的预报订正提供参考。     

Actor-Based Design of a Management System for the Elephant Marsh Fishery in Malawi

In Malawi, fishing community user groups known as beach village committees, traditional chiefs, government officers, and fishers are the key players in fisheries management. Fish catch trends at the Elephant Marsh Fishery in southern Malawi are declining. Based on interviews and participant observation, this article uses an actor-based framework (known as Action-in-Context) to unveil the issues that are crucial in devising a sustainable governance system for the fishery. We establish and propose that the key social variables for the design of a three-pillared (locally based, weak, and amorphous) resilient institution for sustainability of the Elephant Marsh Fishery are (i) the social reputation of the leaders of local fishery institutions (beach village committee leaders), and (ii) the power dynamics between traditional chiefs and these local fishery leaders. We end the article by exploring the implications of the findings on the sustainability of the fishery under rising resource pressure.     

小型深基坑支护结构的设计与监测

在现今的基坑支护结构设计中,常会遇到周边存在高层建筑和地下车库而造成场地狭小的情况。通过对华彬大厦二期基坑支护结构的设计和施工,说明在小型深基坑采用桩锚支护结构的可行性。     

The impact of small-scale wood harvesting on neem Azadirachta indica A. Juss stands in the coastal savanna of Ghana

Although the introduced neem tree Azadirachta indica A. Juss is a very important energy source in the coastal savanna of Ghana, the sustainability of small-scale wood harvesting (SSWH) has not been investigated with regard to this species. This paper assesses the sustainability of SSWH on neem stands in the coastal savanna, using a socio-economic and ecological survey. The results show that SSWH, incorporating coppicing, stand tolerance, balanced with total bole cutting and root removal, and based on socio-cultural supports, has created a modified yet sustainable system of SSWH. It is concluded that these systems may contribute to tree stand conservation.     

Theory of azimuthally small-scale hydromagnetic waves in the axisymmetric magnetosphere with finite plasma pressure

The structure of monochromatic MHD-waves with large azimuthal wave number m 1 in a two-dimensional model of the magnetosphere has been investigated. A joint action of the field line curvature, finite plasma pressure, and transversal equilibrium current leads to the phenomenon that waves, standing along the field lines, are travelling across the magnetic shells. The wave propagation region, the transparency region, is bounded by the poloidal magnetic surface on one side and by the resonance surface on the other. In their meaning these surfaces correspond to the usual and singular turning points in the WKB-approximation, respectively. The wave is excited near the poloidal surface and propagates toward the resonance surface where it is totally absorbed due to the ionospheric dissipation. There are two transparency regions in a finite-beta magnetosphere, one of them corresponds to the Alfvén mode and the other to the slow magneto-sound mode.     

The transfer of agricultural technology and the development of small-scale farming in rural Africa: Case studies from Ghana, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia and South Africa

In many developing countries, research institutions or centres have been established to develop and/or adapt technologies that would help agricultural development. This is particularly true in Africa where national efforts have been supplemented with international research institutes. Although some modest progress has been achieved in improving agricultural technology, on the whole, the improvement record is not quite encouraging among the small-scale farmers. In many areas, either there are no improved technologies, or where they exist, are unacceptable by farmers. However, where useful technologies exist, their spread has been very limited and where they have been adapted, the benefits only accrue to a small segment of the community. The logical question posed is: why and how do we find ourselves in the current situation? This paper considers the view that to understand fully why the available technologies have remained largely at the research centres, there is need to examine the whole process of research, development, dissemination and utilization of agricultural technology. It is significant to investigate the structural constraints and prospects under which those involved in the process work, their motivations and the interactions between different groups. The traditional ‘top-down’ of development strategy should be supplemented with farmers' indigenous knowledge, and programmes encouraging transfer of agricultural technology should include institutional support. Only by the identification of farmers' environmental and resource utilisation, preferences, socio-economic circumstances and constraints can a development programme of optimum meaning to farmers be devised and implemented with success.     

Small-scale convection under the back-arc occurring in the low viscosity wedge

Water released from subducting slabs through a dehydration reaction may lower the viscosity of the mantle significantly. Thus, we may expect a low viscosity wedge (LVW) above the subducting slabs. The LVW coupled with a large-scale flow induced by the subducting slabs may allow the existence of roll-like small-scale convection whose axis is normal to the strike of the plate boundary. Such a roll structure may explain the origin of along-arc variations of mantle temperature proposed recently in northeast Japan. We study this possibility using both 2D and 3D models with/without pressure- and temperature-dependent viscosity. 2D models without pressure and temperature dependence of viscosity show that, with a reasonable geometry of the LVW and subduction speed, small-scale convection is likely to occur when the viscosity of the LVW is less than 10¹⁹ Pa s. Corresponding 3D model studies reveal that the wavelength of rolls depends on the depth of the LVW. The inclusion of temperature-dependent viscosity requires the existence of further low viscosity in the LVW, since temperature dependence suppresses the instability of the cold thermal boundary layer. Pressure (i.e. depth) dependence coupled with temperature dependence of the viscosity promotes short wavelength instabilities. The model, which shows a relatively moderate viscosity decrease in the LVW (most of the LVW viscosity is 10¹⁸∼10¹⁹ Pa s) and a wavelength of roll ∼80 km, has a rather small activation energy and volume (∼130 kJ/mol and ∼4 cm³/mol) of the viscosity. This small activation energy and volume may be possible, if we regard them as an effective viscosity of non-linear rheology.     

Competition and Knowledge in Javanese Rural Business

The paper focuses on information flows and the need for change in cottage industries in rural Indonesia. The context for small-scale business entrepreneurs has changed dramatically during the last decade of economic liberalisation and crisis. Emerging market opportunities, as well as national and international competition, now challenge indigenous businesses in their different geographical settings, and new information is indispensable for survival and growth. The principal question in the paper is whether small-scale agribusiness entrepreneurs are able to identify and utilise existing knowledge for the purpose of improving their competitive strength. By using case studies taking an actor's perspective, the empirical data give insight into the small entrepreneurs' perceptions of their business environments and the hindrances to innovation. Theories on dual economies, path dependence and information asymmetry form the basis for analysing two cases of Javanese agribusiness. The paper concludes that a gap prevails between "traditional" and "modern" sectors of this society, and that cottage industries have much to gain from linking up with external agencies. Regional universities may play a crucial role in enhancing information flows and disseminating competence.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Maruja M.B. Asis, (ed.) The Philippines as Home: Settlers and Sojourners in the Country.
Hans Gooszen, A Demographic History of the Indonesian Archipelago, 1880–1942.
Karin Bras, Image-Building and Guiding on Lombok: The Social Construction of a Tourist Destination.
K.S. Chon, (ed.) Tourism in Southeast Asia: A New Direction.