有限元分析方法在黄土地基震陷预测中的应用

将有限元方法应用于黄土地基的震陷量预测，定量地研究了黄土地基地震沉陷特性与场地条件、基础形式、土动力特性等因素的相关关系，为黄土地基基础的抗震增稳设计与处理提供了科学依据。     

用现今小震推断洪洞、临汾两次历史大震的震源断层

山西临汾地区是一个历史强震多发区，1303年和1695年发生了洪洞（M＝8）和临汾（M＝73／4）两次特大地震，这两次地震所在区域至今仍在持续不断的小地震活动，具有明显的大震区地震长期活动特征，我们对临汾无线传输地震台网记录的1987－1999年期间发生的1670次中，小地震重新进行了震源定位，根据对这些地震震源位置三维空间分布特征和震源机解制的分析，认为洪洞地震的震源断层应是长80km，埋深5－26km的NNE走向，高倾角的右旋走滑型断层，而临汾地震的震源断层是长70km，埋深5－22km的NWW走向，高倾角的左旋走滑型断层。这与洪洞，临汾两次大震极震区的等震线及该地区应力场的构造环境是吻合的。     

有限弹性变形地壳中的地震波

地壳由半无限大的基岩上一层厚度为H^-的表土层组成，入射地震波为垂直的SH波，产生水平地面运动。当浅源大地震发生时，在极震区以外行波传播产生地面运动将使地壳介质有非线性的有限弹性变形。用小参数摄动法使非线性控制方程为线性化的小参数各阶控制方程，得出头两阶线性控制方程的解析解。     

Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.     

Screening model for volatile pollutants in dual porosity soils

This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills.     

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

Natural hydraulic cracking: numerical model and sensitivity study

Natural hydrofracturing caused by overpressure plays an important role in geopressure evolution and hydrocarbon migration in petroliferous basins. Its mechanism is quite well understood in the case of artificial hydraulic fracturing triggered by high-pressure fluid injection in a well. This is not so for natural hydraulic fracturing which is assumed to initiate as micro-cracks with large influence on the permeability of the medium. The mechanism of natural hydraulic cracking, triggered by increasing pore pressure during geological periods, is studied using a fracturing model coupled to the physical processes occurring during basin evolution. In this model, the hydraulic cracking threshold is assumed to lie between the classical failure limit and the beginning of dilatancy. Fluid pressure evolution is calculated iteratively in order to allow dynamic adjustment of permeability so that the fracturing limit is always preserved. The increase of permeability is interpreted on the basis of equivalent fractures. It is found that fracturing is very efficient to keep a stress level at the rock’s hydraulic cracking limit: a fracture permeability one order of magnitude larger than the intrinsic permeability of the rock would be enough. Observations reported from actual basins and model results strongly suggest that natural hydraulic cracking occurs continuously to keep the pressure at the fracturing limit under relaxed stress conditions.     

Gravity and magnetic signatures of volcanic plugs related to Deccan volcanism in Saurashtra, India and their physical and geochemical properties

The Bouguer anomaly and the total intensity magnetic maps of Saurashtra have delineated six circular gravity highs and magnetic anomalies of 40-60 mGal (10⁻⁵m/s²) and 800-1000 nT, respectively. Three of them in western Saurashtra coincide with known volcanic plugs associated with Deccan Volcanic Province (DVP), while the other three in SE Saurashtra coincide with rather concealed plugs exposed partially. The DVP represents different phases of eruption during 65.5±2.5 Ma from the Reunion plume. The geochemical data of the exposed rock samples from these plugs exhibit a wide variation in source composition, which varies from ultramafic/mafic to felsic composition of volcanic plugs in western Saurashtra and an alkaline composition for those in SE Saurashtra. Detailed studies of granophyres and alkaline rocks from these volcanic plugs reveal a calc-alkaline differentiation trend and a continental tectonic setting of emplacement. The alkaline plugs of SE Saurashtra are associated with NE-SW oriented structural trends, related to the Gulf of Cambay and the Cambay rift basin along the track of the Reunion plume. This indicates a deeper source for these plugs compared to those in the western part and may represent the primary source magma. The Junagadh plug with well differentiated ring complexes in western Saurashtra shows well defined centers of magnetic anomaly while the magnetic anomalies due to other plugs are diffused though of the same amplitude. This implies that other plugs are also associated with mafic/ultramafic components, which may not be differentiated and may be present at subsurface levels. Paleomagnetic measurements on surface rock samples from DVP in Saurashtra suggest a susceptibility of 5.5×10⁻² SI units with an average Koenigsberger ratio (Q_n) of almost one and average direction of remanent magnetization of D=147.4° and I=+56.1°. The virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) position computed from the mean direction of magnetization for the volcanic plugs and Deccan basalt of Saurashtra is 30°N and 74°W, which is close to the VGP position corresponding to the early phases of Deccan eruption. Modeling of gravity and magnetic anomalies along two representative profiles across Junagadh and Barda volcanic plugs suggest a bulk density of 2900 and 2880 kg/m³, respectively and susceptibility of 3.14×10⁻² SI units with a Q_n ratio of 0.56 which are within the range of their values obtained from laboratory measurements on exposed rock samples. The same order of gravity and magnetic anomalies observed over the volcanic plugs of Saurashtra indicates almost similar bulk physical properties for them. The inferred directions of magnetization from magnetic anomalies, however, are D=337° and 340° and I=−38° and −50° which represent the bulk direction of magnetization and also indicate a reversal of the magnetic field during the eruption of these plugs. Some of these plugs are associated with seismic activities of magnitude ≤4 at their contacts. Based on this analysis, other circular/semi-circular gravity highs of NW India can be qualitatively attributed to similar subsurface volcanic plugs.     

Models of passive margin inversion: implications for the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt, Belgium and Germany

Positive tectonic inversion is related to the transmission of compressional stresses along a décollement into the foreland of an orogenic zone. This stress and strain concentration in regions remote from the main orogenic front is commonly related to the presence of pre-existing rheological heterogeneities such as normal syn-depositional faults. During inversion, these pre-existing normal faults are reactivated as reverse faults. Tectonic inversion in the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt during the Variscan Orogeny shows that inversion is likely synchronous with the onset of collision in the hinterland. Here, we present the results of a simplified thermo-mechanical model (STM) which allows one to study strain partitioning between two orogenic zones. We show that, if the two orogenic zones have the same mechanical properties, the viscosity of the décollement, which links them, controls the initial strain partitioning. During subsequent finite shortening, erosional processes determine the partitioning of strain rate. The presence of a weak structure in the inverted zone and of a low-viscosity décollement leads to initial strain concentration in the inverted track rather than in the collision zone and a progressive decrease in strain partitioning between the two orogenic zones. The STM results are in good agreement with results of a 2D finite-element model. We conclude that, in the western part of the Rhenohercynian Massif, simultaneous uplift and deformation within the Mid-German Crystalline Rise (the main collision zone) and the Ardenne Anticlinorium (the inverted zone) lead to interpreting this orogenic event as a case of vice tectonic rather than the propagation of a ‘wave of folding’ towards the Variscan front, as suggested by previous authors.     

我国西部地区中小企业发展的环境效应及其约束-引导机制

本文从中小企业发展在我国西部开发中的作用入手 ,针对西部地区生态环境特点及其中小企业发展产生的问题 ,重点分析了中小企业发展与生态环境保护之间的关系 ,对现行的生态环境保护政策的理念进行了全新的思考。明确了促进西部中小企业发展的基本战略 ,并就西部中小企业发展过程中建立非理性作用的约束 -引导机制提出了政策建议。