基于GM(1,1)优化模型的岩石边坡变形预报

岩石边坡系统是一典型灰色系统，其变形发展过程可以用灰色预测模型完成。尽管传统GM（1，1）模型预测有很多成功的实例，但是也存在一些预测偏差过大的情况，必须对其进行优化。逐步迭代法GM（1，1）模型不仅收敛速度快，而且与原始数据库序列的凹凸性保护一致。利用自编的计算程序对马步坎边坡预测测点G1沉降和开裂进行预测分析，结果表明逐步迭代法GM（1，1）优化模型计算精度较传统GM（1，1）模型和背景构造法GM（1，1）优化模型高，较好地反映了岩石边坡的变形趋势。     

耒宜高速公路路堑边坡变形破坏特征及其综合治理

耒宜高速公路修建于山岭重丘区 ,沿线地形、地质条件差异较大 ,路堑开挖边坡类型较多 ,特征不一。本文介绍了路堑边坡的主要特征、边坡失稳的主要原因及治理对策。     

西安市黑河水库左坝肩渗漏三维数值模拟及坝肩坡体稳定性分析

直接针对西安市黑河水库左坝肩渗漏这一重大工程实际问题展开研究与计算。应用三维有限差分方法对左坝肩单薄山梁的初始渗流场、蓄水后的渗流场进行了数值模拟 ,分析渗漏方式、计算相应的渗漏量 ,并通过计算说明了断层是集中渗漏通道。而后利用三维数值计算提供的水位值 ,应用极限平衡分析法 ,对左坝肩岩质斜坡稳定性进行计算与分析 ,计算结果对实际工程的决策与治理提供重要的依据。     

三峡工程库区巴东县赵树岭滑坡稳定性与防治对策研究

赵树岭滑坡是三峡工程库区的重要滑坡，其稳定性直接关系到巴东新县城沿江大道的安全，并对新县城土地利用意义重大。在阐述赵树岭滑坡基本特征的基础上，运用水岩耦合三维有限元数值方法模拟了滑坡稳定性，预测了三峡水库蓄水后滑坡稳定性发展趋势和渗流特征。研究表明，水库蓄水及水位波动是影响滑坡稳定性的主要因素，三峡水库蓄水后，滑坡将发生局部失稳，必须加以治理，提出了滑坡防治的原则与对策。     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

公路边坡工程监测技术评价与分析

结合公路工程、建筑工程等土木工程建设中经常涉及到的边坡工程,评价与分析边坡工程监测的作用、内容和方法,提出了边坡工程应该在工程项目开展的开始阶段就应进行和边坡工程监测的项目,选择原则,测点布置原则、监测周期等,对边坡工程建设具有重要的意义.     

长江三峡工程蓄水对链子崖危岩体T8-T12缝段稳定性影响研究

三峡水库蓄水后,已治理的链子崖危岩体,特别是T8-T12缝段岩体将受到江水的长期作用和影响,直接关系到防治工程的成败.通过大量实地调查和岩体测试,着重论述水库蓄水对T8-T12裂缝及其充填物的作用和影响;并以此为基础,用改进的Sarma法对该段危岩体的稳定性进行重新计算和评价,得出一系列新的结论:总体上,长江水位抬升后,水对裂缝的溶蚀作用和劈裂作用,使裂缝整体加宽,不利于危岩体的稳定;考虑岩体和承重阻滑键取长期强度和江水位骤然升降,以及地震影响,链子崖危岩体整体稳定性将恶化,但NE20°方向稳定程度好于NW350°.     

渤海湾盆地埕岛东斜坡地区东三段油气成岩成藏模式

通过分析埕岛东斜坡地区东三段砂岩成岩作用特征 ,以及对该地区油气成藏系统的研究 ,总结出东三段砂岩体的成岩成藏模式。东三段上部砂体成藏于馆陶组沉积期 ,对应于早成岩 B期阶段 ,油气过早进入砂岩体 ,充填了孔隙 ,抑制了成岩作用的进行 ,使原生孔隙得以良好的保存。目前该砂体位于晚成岩 A期阶段 ,伴随形成了次生孔隙 ,并正处于第二次成藏期     

Anatomy of shelf deltas at the edge of a prograding Eocene shelf margin, Spitsbergen

Abstract Although shelf‐edge deltas are well‐imaged seismic features of Holocene and Pleistocene shelf margins, documented outcrop analogues of these important sand‐prone reservoirs are rare. The facies and stratigraphic architecture of an outcropping shelf‐edge delta system in the Eocene Battfjellet Formation, Spitsbergen, is presented here, as well as the implications of this delta system for the generation of sand‐prone, shelf‐margin clinoforms. The shelf‐edge deltas of the Battfjellet Formation on Litledalsfjellet and Høgsnyta produced a 3–5 × 15 km, shelf edge‐attached, slope apron (70 m of sandstones proximally, tapering to zero on the lower slope). The slope apron consists of distributary channel and mouth‐bar deposits in its shelf‐edge reaches, passing downslope to slope channels/chutes that fed turbiditic lobes and spillover sheets. In the transgressive phase of the slope apron, estuaries developed at the shelf edge, and these also produced minor lobes on the slope. The short‐headed mountainous rivers that drained the adjacent orogenic belt and fed the narrow shelf, and the shelf‐edge position of the discharging deltas, made an appropriate setting for the generation of hyperpycnal turbidity currents on the slope of the shelf margin. The abundance of organic matter and of coal fragments in the slope turbidites is consistent with this notion. Evidence that many of the slope turbidites were generated by sustained turbidity currents that waxed then waned includes the presence of scour surfaces and thick intervals of plane‐parallel laminae within turbidite beds in the slope channels, and thick spillover lobes with repetitive alternations of massive and flat‐laminated intervals. The examined shelf‐edge to slope system, now preserved mainly below the shelf break and dominated by sediment gravity‐flow deposits, has a threefold stratigraphic architecture: a lower, progradational part, in which the clinoforms have a slight downward‐directed trajectory; a thin aggradational zone; and an upper part in which clinoforms backstep up onto the shelf edge. A greatly increased density of erosional channels and chutes marks the regressive‐to‐transgressive turnaround within the slope apron, and this zone becomes an angular unconformity up near the shelf edge. This unconformity, with both subaerial and subaqueous components, is interpreted as a sequence boundary and developed by vigorous sand delivery and bypass across the shelf edge during the time interval of falling relative sea level. The studied shelf‐margin clinoforms accreted mostly during falling stage (sea level below the shelf edge), but the outer shelf later became estuarine as sea level became re‐established above the shelf edge.     

How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides

A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm³ Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and t_f) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.