Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三峡库区云阳新城水平层状岩体高边坡变形破坏主要控制因素

本文对三峡库区云阳新城一些高边坡的勘察成果进行了总结,目的在于了解云阳新城区近水平岩层条件下边坡变形破坏的型式、主要控制因素及支护要点。结果表明,云阳新城高边坡普遍存在表层剥落现象,含膨胀性矿物(主要是伊利石和绿泥石)的泥质岩较快速风化作用是造成边坡表层剥落式渐进性破坏的主要原因;沿卸荷裂隙与泥化夹层的崩滑是边坡失稳的主要型式,但边坡之间崩滑失稳的程度存在较大差异,一些边坡存在相对较为强烈的卸荷及边坡失稳问题,主要归因于其存在与边坡近于平行的构造裂隙。认为及时进行护坡并在工程设计中考虑结构面的存在型式是边坡防护的重点。     

Risk analysis of landslides – A case study

The effects of uncertainty due to the variability of soil parameters on the risk of landsliding in the Himalayan region are investigated using a random field model combined with slope stability analyses. Effects of spatial variability both in horizontal and vertical directions, number of test samples, variations in piezometric level and the influence of earthquake on the reliability of a typical slope in a slide area are investigated. The results show that the reliability of slopes in the slide area is significantly affected by the coefficients of variation of soil parameters, spatial variations of soil parameters, number of test samples and piezometric variations. The results also show that the assumption of isotropic variations to assess slope reliability isconservative. The results of the study are useful in providing guidelines and pointing to remedial measures in the form of sub-surface drainage to improve slope reliability in the area.     

岩体边坡工程中的位移监测及分析

边坡工程的监测取决于监测人员对岩(土)体介质的认识程度和选择相应的方法和手段。通过对江西德兴铜矿大山村选矿厂东部边坡和北部楔形地质结构体稳定状况的监测,阐述了在边坡工程中位移监测的应用及有关分析。     

洪家渡水电站左坝肩高边坡稳定及加固措施研究

贵州洪家渡水电站左坝肩高边坡开挖高度310 m,采用弹塑性有限元数值模拟方法对左坝肩高边坡施工期岩体应力应变状态进行分析研究,并结合现场变形观测资料对计算结果进行验证,从而对左坝肩高边坡的稳定性进行评价并提出相应的加固措施。     

小湾电站高边坡系统锚固与排水的优化设计方法

据小湾电站地下厂房进水口开挖高边坡的岩体结构与工程地质特征,采用基于结构面网络模拟的随机楔体稳定分析方法对边坡的稳定性进行了三维分析。进一步运用风险分析理论对边坡系统锚杆与预应力锚索的布置进行了优化设计,最后运用结构面网络模拟理论对排水方案进行了优化设计。     

兴山县龙王嘴边坡稳定性分析与加固设计

龙王嘴边坡系坡高达70 m、坡角达70 °的高陡岩质边坡。分析了宜-秭公路石峡段龙王嘴高边坡变形的地质条件,在定量评价龙王嘴高边坡稳定性的基础上,进行了该高边坡的施工图加固设计。根据其特点将350 m长的坡段分为A,B,C三个区,分别采取预应力锚索与锚杆加固、挂网喷射混凝土支护和喷射混凝土支护等措施,实践证明,工程治理效果良好。     

边坡及其它类工程地质问题研究

本文提出有关边坡工程地质研究方面的一些新概念，看法和问题，并概述了属地这一专题的边坡及其它各类工程地质问题的研究成果。     

斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型

斜坡岩体由小变形到大变形乃至滑坡的发生，实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果．将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中，并提出了一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型──协同预测模型．经实例检验，该模型预测精度较高，可用于滑坡的短期或临滑预报．     

基于SLFT的边坡强度折减法失稳判据

强度折减法在评价边坡稳定性时不需要假设和搜索临界滑裂面，相对于其它方法具有一定优势，但失稳判据尚无明 确标准。滑移线场理论（SLFT） 可以计算得到的极限状态下的边坡坡面曲线（简称极限坡面曲线），已有研究表明极限坡 面曲线与边坡坡面的相对位置关系可以判断边坡稳定性。基于该结论提出一种边坡强度折减法失稳判据：不同折减系数计 算得到不同的强度参数，因此滑移线场理论计算得到的极限坡面曲线将发生变化，当极限坡面曲线与边坡坡面在坡底相离 时，判断边坡为稳定状态；当极限坡面曲线与边坡坡面相交于坡脚时，判断边坡为极限平衡状态；当极限坡面曲线与边坡 坡面相交时，判断边坡为失稳状态。对标准边坡考题的计算结果表明：提出的失稳判据收敛性较好，安全系数计算结果与 标准答案和已有失稳判据分析结论相差较小；传统失稳判据收敛指标的确定没有明确标准，当位移突变曲线光滑时很难找 到突变点，很难准确计算对应的安全系数，更重要的是传统失稳判据判断边坡极限状态受到人为主观因素的影响，而提出 的失稳判据可以实现失稳判据的客观标准化；确定的临界滑裂面形状以及在边坡中的位置都与标准答案基本一致，提出的 失稳判据适用于强度折减法。