Causes of systematic over‐ or underestimation of low streamflows by use of index‐streamgage approaches in the United States

Low‐flow characteristics can be estimated by multiple linear regressions or the index‐streamgage approach. The latter transfers streamflow information from a hydrologically similar, continuously gaged basin (‘index streamgage’) to one with a very limited streamflow record, but often results in biased estimates. The application of the index‐streamgage approach can be generalized into three steps: (1) selection of streamflow information of interest, (2) definition of hydrologic similarity and selection of index streamgage, and (3) application of an information‐transfer approach. Here, we explore the effects of (1) the range of streamflow values, (2) the areal density of streamgages, and (3) index‐streamgage selection criteria on the bias of three information‐transfer approaches on estimates of the 7‐day, 10‐year minimum streamflow (Q_{7, 10}). The three information‐transfer approaches considered are maintenance of variance extension, base‐flow correlation, and ratio of measured to concurrent gaged streamflow (Q‐ratio invariance). Our results for 1120 streamgages throughout the United States suggest that only a small portion of the total bias in estimated streamflow values is explained by the areal density of the streamgages and the hydrologic similarity between the two basins. However, restricting the range of streamflow values used in the index‐streamgage approach reduces the bias of estimated Q_{7, 10} values substantially. Importantly, estimated Q_{7, 10} values are heavily biased when the observed Q_{7, 10} values are near zero. Results of the analysis also showed that Q_{7, 10} estimates from two of the three index‐streamgage approaches have lower root‐mean‐square error values than estimates derived from multiple regressions for the large regions considered in this study. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling time varying scouring at bed sills

In this paper a modelling approach is presented to predict local scour under time varying flow conditions. The approach is validated using experimental data of unsteady scour at bed sills. The model is based on a number of hypotheses concerning the characteristics of the flow hydrograph, the temporal evolution of the scour and the geometry of the scour hole. A key assumption is that, at any time, the scour depth evolves at the same rate as in an equivalent steady flow. The assumption is supported by existing evidence of geometrical affinity and similarity of scour holes formed under different steady hydraulic conditions. Experimental data are presented that show the scour hole development downstream of bed sills due to flood hydrographs follow a predictable pattern. Numerical simulations are performed with the same input parameters used in the experimental tests but with no post‐simulation calibration. Comparison between the experimental and model results indicates good correspondence, especially in the rising limb of the flow hydrograph. This suggests that the underlying assumptions used in the modelling approach are appropriate. In principle, the approach is general and can be applied to a wide range of environments (e.g. bed sills, step‐pool systems) in which scouring at rapid bed elevation changes caused by time varying flows occurs, provided appropriate scaling information is available, and the scour response to steady flow conditions can be estimated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using a transient infiltrometric technique for intensively sampling field‐saturated hydraulic conductivity of a clay soil in two runoff plots

The point measurement of soil properties allows to explain and simulate plot scale hydrological processes. An intensive sampling was carried out at the surface of an unsaturated clay soil to measure, on two adjacent plots of 4 × 11 m² and two different dates (May 2007 and February–March 2008), dry soil bulk density, ρ_b, and antecedent soil water content, θ_i, at 88 points. Field‐saturated soil hydraulic conductivity, K_fs, was also measured at 176 points by the transient Simplified Falling Head technique to determine the soil water permeability characteristics at the beginning of a possible rainfall event yielding measurable runoff. The ρ_b values did not differ significantly between the two dates, but wetter soil conditions (by 31%) and lower conductivities (1.95 times) were detected on the second date as compared with the first one. Significantly higher (by a factor of 1.8) K_fs values were obtained with the 0.30‐m‐diameter ring compared with the 0.15‐m‐diameter ring. A high K_fs (> 100 mm h^?1) was generally obtained for low θ_i values (< 0.3 m³m^?3), whereas a high θ_i yielded an increased percentage of low K_fs data (1–100 mm h^?1). The median of K_fs for each plot/sampling date combination was not lower than 600 mm h^?1, and rainfall intensities rarely exceeded 100 mm h^?1 at the site. The occurrence of runoff at the base of the plot needs a substantial reduction of the surface soil permeability characteristics during the event, probably promoted by a higher water content than the one of this investigation (saturation degree = 0.44–0.62) and some soil compaction due to rainfall impact. An intensive soil sampling reduces the risk of an erroneous interpretation of hydrological processes. In an unstable clay soil, changes in K_fs during the event seem to have a noticeable effect on runoff generation, and they should be considered for modeling hydrological processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多种度量的电离层TEC混沌预测分析

利用东经120°,北纬45°上空的2008年年积日101～150 d时间段内共600个电离层格网TEC数据为时间序列样本,分析了该点上空电离层TEC参数的混沌特性,发现其关联维数为2.2632,嵌入维数为5,最大Lyapunov指数为λ=0.0833,表明该点上空电离层TEC时间序列具有混沌的特征,存在混沌现象.采用加权一阶局域法对TEC时间序列进行预测时,在有效预报尺度内,利用各种度量进行预报得到的中误差都随着预报天数的增加而逐渐增大,但预报的相对误差却是在一定幅度范围内上下波动.采用四种距离度量以及皮尔森相关系数和Jaccard相似系数进行预报,其预测结果或者平均中误差较大,或者平均相对误差较大,结果不理想.其中,采用标准化欧氏距离得到的平均中误差最大,达到5.107TECU,而采用皮尔森相关系数得到的平均中误差最小,为5.078TECU;对于平均相对误差而言,由切比雪夫距离得到的平均相对误差最大,为0.185,而Jaccard相似系数得到的平均相对误差最小,为0.166.而采用余弦相似度得到的预测结果,其平均中误差和平均相对误差都很小,分别为5.079TECU和0.167.因此,在一阶局域混沌预测时,采用余弦相似度作为衡量相空间轨迹的差异性是较为合适的.     

EVALUATION OF EROSION PRODUCTIVITY IMPACT CALCULATOR （EPIC） MODEL FOR MIDDLE MOUNTAIN REGION OF NEPAL

This study verifies the applicability of EPIC model for an erosion plot (61 .2 m~2) and an uplandterraced watershed (72 ha) using a total of 94 rainfall events over a study period of two years. Inorder to analyze the effect of storm size on runoff and soil loss processes, rainfall events aredivided into three groups: small (<25mm), moderate (25--50mm) and large (>50mm). Resultsindicate that the model could predict reasonably well the runoff and soil loss from the erosion plotand the watershed for the moderate and large rainfall events. However, the runoff and soil lossprediction for the small rainfall events is found to be poor. On annual basis, both surface runoff andsoil loss predictions match well the observations. In ligh of the importance of the moderate andlarge rainfall events in producing most of the annual runoff and soil loss in the study area, the EPICmodel is applied to assess the impacts of erosion on agricultural productivity and to evaluatemanagement practices to protect watersheds in the     

Testing assumptions and procedures to empirically predict bare plot soil loss in a Mediterranean environment

Empirical prediction of soil erosion has both scientific and practical importance. This investigation tested USLE and USLE‐based procedures to predict bare plot soil loss at the Sparacia area, in Sicily. Event soil loss per unit area, A_e, did not vary appreciably with plot length, λ, because the decrease in runoff with λ was offset by an increase in sediment concentration. Slope steepness, s, had a positive effective on A_e, and this result was associated with a runoff coefficient that did not vary appreciably with s and a sediment concentration generally increasing with s. Plot steepness did not have a statistically detectable effect on the calculations of the soil erodibility factor of both the USLE, K, and the USLE‐M, K_UM, models, but a soil‐independent relationship between K_UM and K was not found. The erosivity index of the USLE‐MM model performed better than the erosivity index of the Central and Southern Italy model. In conclusion, the importance of an approach allowing soil loss predictions that do not necessarily increase with λ was confirmed together with the usability of already established and largely applied relationships to predict steepness effects. Soil erodibility has to be determined with reference to the specific mathematical scheme and conversion between different schemes seems to need taking into account the soil characteristics. The USLE‐MM shows promise for further developments. The evolutionary concept applied in the development of the USLE should probably be rediscovered to improve development of soil erosion prediction tools. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

洞庭湖湿地土壤种子库特征及其与地表植被的相关性

本文研究洞庭湖三种分布于不同水位的主要群落(荻、苔草、虉草)土壤种子库大小组成、垂直分布特征及其地表植被的相关性.结果表明:荻群落土壤种子库密度最高,为44656粒/m2,苔草群落的最低,为15146粒/m2,虉草群落的居中,为31725粒/m2.种子主要分布于土壤表层(0～5 cm),且随土壤剖面深度的增加而迅速递减.三种群落湿地种子库由53种植物组成,分属18科39属,其中多年生物种20种,一或二年生物种33种.在荻、苔草和虉草三种群落中,种子库的多年生物种分别占29.9%、35.2%和38.0%,物种多样性指数分别为0.76、0.70和0.72;地表植被物种多样性指数分别为0.53、0.17和0.45,土壤种子库与相应地表植被相似性系数分别为0.40、0.28和0.52.可见,在洞庭湖这一通江湖泊湿地,多年生地表植被所产生的种子对土壤种子库大小贡献相对有限,种子库可能主要通过其它途径(如水的流动作用)输入.     

Thresholds of land cover to control runoff and soil loss

This research focused on the determination of land cover thresholds that have a significant impact on runoff generation and soil loss at the pedon scale. For this purpose, six erosion micro-plots were set up on grassland and shrubland types of rangeland in the northeast of Iran, and the amounts of vegetation cover, litter, runoff and soil loss on them were measured. A factorial statistical analysis was carried out on the completely randomized design using land cover and rainfall factors. The results show that the effect of rainfall on soil loss and runoff was greater than that of land cover. Also, the effect of land cover on soil loss was greater than that on runoff generation. Furthermore, two specific thresholds were identified: the first was from 10 to 30% of landcover and the second from 50 to 70%.     

Improving automatic location procedure by waveform similarity analysis: An application in the South Western Alps (Italy)

The accuracy of automatic procedures for locating earthquakes is influenced by several factors such as errors in picking seismic phases, network geometry, modeling errors and velocity model uncertainties. The main purpose of this work is to improve the performances of the automatic procedure employed for the “quasi-real-time” location of seismic events in North Western Italy by developing a procedure based on a waveform similarity analysis and by using only one seismic station.To detect “earthquake families” a cross-correlation technique was applied to a data set of seismic waveforms recorded in the period 1985-2002, in a small test area (1600 km²) located in the South Western Alps (Italy). Normalized cross-correlation matrices were calculated using about 2700 seismic events, selected on the basis of the signal to noise ratio, manually picked and located by using the Hypoellipse code. The waveform similarity analysis, based on the bridging technique, allowed grouping about 65% of the selected events into 80 earthquake families (multiplets) located inside the area considered. For each earthquake family a master event is selected, manually re-picked and re-located by using Hypoellipse code. Having chosen a reference station (STV) on the basis of the completeness of the available data set, an automatic procedure has been developed with the aim of cross-correlating new seismic recordings (automatically picked) to the waveforms of the events belonging to the detected families. If the new event is proved to belong to a family (on the basis of the cross-correlation values), its hypocenter co-ordinates are defined by the location of the master event of the associated family. The performance of the proposed procedure is tested and demonstrated using a data set of 104 selected earthquakes recorded in the period January 2003-June 2004 and located in the test area. The automatic procedure is able to locate, associating events with the multiplets detected by the waveform similarity analysis, about 50% of the test events, almost independently of the accuracy of the automatic phase picker and without the biasing of the network geometry and of the velocity model uncertainties.     

大型振动台试验土质边坡模型材料相似性及评价

大型振动台模型试验是边坡动力响应和破坏模式研究的重要手段,其中相似材料的选择是决定试验能否成功的关键。以黄土地区2类典型边坡为研究对象,在对滑坡体原状土样开展室内土动力学测试的基础上,提出6种相似比条件下振动台模型试验相似材料的配比方法;对2种相似比条件下相似材料的参数进行量纲分析,依据相似判据、相似准则的约束,以模糊数学理论进行优化,并提出大型土质边坡振动台试验的材料相似性评价体系。