2011年5月11日内蒙古地区强沙尘暴天气过程分析

基于1°×1°NCEP资料、常规气象观测资料及地面加密观测资料,对2011年5月11日发生在锡林郭勒盟地区的强沙尘暴过程进行天气学分析和诊断,得出如下结论:(1)此次强沙尘暴过程特点是落区集中、强度大、强沙尘暴持续时间长、沙尘暴区与大风区(6级以上)非常一致。冷涡及强锋区、蒙古气旋和冷锋是触发这次强沙尘暴天气过程的重要天气系统,此次强沙尘暴天气过程则属于蒙古气旋和冷锋共同作用引起的类型;(2)高空急流左中和左后方的辐合区,及左前侧的高空辐散区均出现了沙尘暴,下沉只在动量下传中起到了重要作用。垂直螺旋度在东移的过程中正值中心与强沙尘暴区域对应较好,且具有典型的上负下正的垂直结构,构成了低空强辐合、高空强辐散的深厚上升运动区,这样螺旋度垂直分布是十分有利于沙尘暴发展的一种形式;(3)在沙尘暴发生前,具有不稳定特征。沙尘天气开始时,等位温线几乎垂直于横坐标,表明此时大气层结非常接近绝热状态(中性层结),由于中性层结能够减小抬升所需的能量,因而有利于干对流的产生。     

DOC budgets of drained peat catchments: implications for DOC production in peat soils

The blocking of drainage ditches in peat has been proposed as a possible mitigation strategy for the widely observed increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations from northern peatlands. This study tested the hypothesis that drain‐blocking could lead to lower DOC concentrations by measuring the DOC export from a series of small peat‐covered catchments over a period of 2 years. Six catchments were chosen: two were pristine that had never been drained; three where drains had been blocked (one in 1995, and two in 2003); and a control peat drain catchment where the drain was left unblocked throughout the study. In the case where drains were blocked as part of thus study, the drains were observed for 2 months before blocking and 2 years after blocking. The results show that: (i) high concentrations of DOC can come from water ponded in the drain; (ii) the DOC export (flux of DOC per area of catchment) from the six study catchments shows a high degree of positive correlation with both catchment size and water yield; (iii) distinctly lower DOC export with water yield was observed for the catchments containing higher‐order channels (>27 500 m²) as opposed to single drain catchments (>7500 m²); (iv) drain‐blocking resulted in a statistically significant decrease in DOC export (average was 39%) but the effect upon DOC concentration explained only 1% of the variance in the data. The results suggest that drain blocking works by decreasing the flow from the drain, not by changing the production of DOC in the peat. The change in export with catchment size implies a considerable removal of DOC from large catchments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐decadal variability of drought risk,eastern Australia

A number of previous studies have identified changes in the climate occurring on decadal to multi‐decadal time‐scales. Recent studies also have revealed multi‐decadal variability in the modulation of the magnitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on rainfall and stream flow in Australia and other areas. This study investigates multi‐decadal variability of drought risk by analysing the performance of a water storage reservoir in New South Wales, Australia, during different climate epochs defined using the Inter‐decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The performance of the reservoir is also analysed under three adaptive management techniques and these are compared with the reservoir performance using the current ‘reactive’ management practices. The results indicate that IPO modulation of both the magnitude and frequency of ENSO events has the effect of reducing and elevating drought risk on multi‐decadal time‐scales. The results also confirm that adaptive reservoir management techniques, based on ENSO forecasts, can improve drought security and become significantly more important during dry climate epochs. These results have marked implications for improving drought security for water storage reservoirs. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A STUDY ON REGULARITY OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER VALLEY DURING LAST 10 CENTURIES

According to historical records, there are 264 drought and flood years, occurred in the upper and middle reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River during last 1020 years from 961 to 1980. The evolutionary law and developing trend of drought and flood years are studied. The distribution of drought and flood years are non-uniform and the dry and flood seasons in a year are concentrated. At the angle of monsoon circulation, at present the climate in the upper and middle reaches of the Changjiang River is just in the late stage of frequent drought period and the early stage of least flood period. In addition, the cycle of drought and flood and the feature of drought and flood occurred in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River are analyzed. It shows that the short period less than 10 years is in the majority, and the drought and flood occurred most frequently in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River.     

西南干旱特征及其成因研究进展

在全球变暖背景下,中国极端天气气候事件频发.近年来,发生在中国西南的严重干旱事件给当地造成了重大的经济损失和严重的社会影响,引起政府部门和科学界的高度重视.因此,总结西南干旱的观测事实和规律,探讨干旱成因,为西南干旱的预测预警提供依据,是一项具有现实意义也极具理论价值的研究课题.文章根据近年来有关西南干旱的研究进展,从影响干旱的几个主要方面着手,总结西南干旱的最新研究成果,并分析研究中尚存在的不足,以期对今后的工作有所帮助.     

不同时间尺度下气象旱涝强度评估指数

基于逐日气象干旱指数,构建了可以反映某一时段内气象旱涝强度的标准化阶段气象旱涝强度指数 (staged meteorological drought intensity index, I_SD) 和阶段气象旱涝时间分布状态的标准化阶段气象旱涝空间分布差异指数 (staged meteorological drought discrepancy index, I_SDD)。以构建昆明月尺度的I_SD和I_SDD为例说明了阶段气象旱涝指数的构建方法,通过对不同时段降水距平百分率、I_SD, I_SDD和标准降水指数 (standardized precipitation index, I_SP) 的对比分析,结合降水及逐日气象干旱指数 (multi-scale standardized precipitation index, I_MSP) 的演变,验证了I_SD和I_SDD的有效性。对于任一站点的不同时间尺度,两个指数可以在日尺度到年尺度乃至更大的时间尺度上进行计算,通过Boltzmann函数来构建I_SD和I_SDD的方法具有很好的拓展应用性,其他气象干旱指数也可以采用该方法来构建阶段干旱指数。     

登陆热带气旋引发云南强降水的环境场特征

应用《西北太平洋热带气旋年鉴检索系统》资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及云南降水资料,对1959-2007年热带气旋(以下简称TC)西行登陆引发的云南强降水过程进行了分类统计,得到4类TC强降水环流模型,分别是TC低压环流型、TC低压外围或倒槽型、TC低压与低槽冷空气相互作用型和TC与两高辐合相互作用型.环境场特征显示,100 hPa南亚高压中心位置在90°E以西,高空东风急流提供了强大的辐散场,低空西南季风气流与TC环流相连接,高低层涡度差呈负值区分布,使TC低压环流在陆上维持或强度减弱缓慢;西南季风气流中的低空急流、副热带高压外围及TC低压东部的偏南急流共同作用,向云南输送充沛的水汽和能量,是登陆TC强降水产生的重要天气系统配置形势;强降水分布在低空急流左侧,TC低压或倒槽西北侧的正涡度中心附近;冷空气南下进入云南,增加了大气斜压不稳定,使TC外围降水增强.     

2013年4月大气环流和天气分析

2013年4月大气环流特征为:北半球极涡呈绕极分布,强度接近常年;中高纬度呈4波型,东亚大槽较常年明显偏强;中低纬度地区南支槽和副热带高压强度都稍偏弱,不利于西南地区旱情的缓解。4月全国平均气温为11.0℃,与常年同期持平,东北地区气温异常偏低。全国平均降水量为43.2 mm,较常年同期偏少1.5 mm。月内我国共出现了2次冷空气过程,并伴有扬沙、浮尘甚至沙尘暴天气;南方地区共有3次大到暴雨过程,以4月29-30日过程强降雨范围最广、强度最强,其中江南、华南地区还伴随有明显的强对流活动。     

Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario

This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model(RegCM3) under the SRES(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario.The standardized precipitation index(SPI),which has well performance in monitoring the drought/flood characteristics(in terms of their intensity,duration,and spatial extent) in China,is used in this study.The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent.These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China.Considering China as a whole,the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced.In contrast,future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently.Additionally,the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.     

2020年3月大气环流和天气分析

2020年3月大气环流的主要特征是极涡呈单极偏心亚洲分布,强度偏强;中高纬环流呈3波型,东亚槽偏浅;西太平洋副热带高压偏强,南支槽强度与常年平均相当。影响我国冷空气总体多而不强,致3月大部地区显著偏暖,全国平均气温为6.1℃,较常年同期（4.1℃）偏高2.0℃,有58个站最高气温破历史同期极值;弱冷空气频繁渗透南下配合南支槽活动致江南华南多连阴雨,全国平均降水量为35.0 mm,较常年同期（29.5 mm）偏多18.4%。月内共出现3次较强冷空气过程,配合前期偏暖背景,有91个站出现日极端降温事件。南方地区发生7次大范围降雨过程,其中3次伴随有明显的强对流天气过程,多省遭受风雹袭击,局部地区受灾较重。此外,北方地区出现4次沙尘天气过程;四川东部、陕西南部、云南发生干旱。