区域干旱帕默尔旱度指标的修正

帕默尔旱度模式是评估干旱严重程度的重要模型,20世纪引入中国后,安顺清等人相继进行了修正,但是多采用的是单个站点数据进行运算,在研究大尺度的区域时则不适用,文章将各研究区站点数据平均整合,并以辽宁省范围内辽河流域片的7个代表性区域进行建模,以海滦河流域、淮河流域、黄河流域、长江流域的23个代表性区域相关资料为权重因子进行修正,同时利用综合水平衡模型对原帕默尔旱度模式中的水量平衡模型进行替换,经过对修正模式的验证,结果显示符合实际情况,对于区域干旱研究具有实际意义。     

西藏高原强对流天气及短临预报研究进展

高原地区的强对流天气突发性强、易多发、强度大、影响重、预报难,但针对高原地区强对流天气及其短临预报系统的总结还较少。由于高原特殊的地理环境及显著的热力作用和动力作用的影响,高原强对流天气具有不同于东部平原地区的独特特征,其研究进展概括具有重要指导意义。概括了青藏高原地区尤其是西藏地区强对流天气研究的进展,包括高原地区强对流天气气候特征,高原强对流天气的环流背景及影响系统,强对流天气的预报技术、相关短临预报系统等,为进一步的研究工作和短临预报系统建设提供研究背景。     

水杨酸对干旱下烤烟幼苗膜质和叶绿素荧光特性的影响

以烤烟品种龙江911为材料,研究了叶面喷施水杨酸（SA）对干旱胁迫下烤烟幼苗叶绿素含量、叶绿素荧光特性和细胞膜伤害程度的影响。结果表明,干旱胁迫下烤烟幼苗叶片的膜系统受到了伤害,光合作用的原初反应和光能在两个光系统之间的分配发生了改变。叶面喷施0.5 mmol·L-1和1.0 mmol·L-1SA减轻了干旱引起的细胞膜丙二醛的增加,有效地保护了烤烟幼苗叶片的膜系统。同时,0.5 mmol·L-1和1.0 mmol·L-1SA减轻了干旱胁迫下叶绿素的分解,有效缓解干旱对类囊体膜和PSⅡ反应中心的伤害,增强了烤烟幼苗对干旱胁迫的适应能力,其最适宜的浓度为0.5～1.0 mmol·L-1。2.0 mmol·L-1SA对烤烟幼苗有一定的毒害作用。     

低温、干旱并发对玉米苗期生理过程的影响

该文从低温与干旱并发的角度出发, 探讨其对玉米苗期生理过程、生长发育过程产生的影响。通过2004年人工模拟试验, 定量研究了低温、干旱及低温、干旱并发对玉米苗期生理过程、生长发育的影响。研究结果表明:低温对光合作用速率、蒸腾速率均为负效应, 在土壤相对湿度适宜时, 温度由20 ℃降到16 ℃, 光合作用速率下降22.4%, 蒸腾速率下降44.0%。干旱对光合作用速率、蒸腾速率也是负效应, 在温度适宜, 土壤相对湿度由80%降至50%时, 光合作用速率下降11.5%;土壤相对湿度由60%降至50%时, 蒸腾速率下降2.7%。低温、干旱并发的影响远大于低温、干旱单因子的影响, 温度由20 ℃降至16 ℃, 土壤相对湿度由80%降至50%时, 光合作用速率下降32.1%, 蒸腾速率下降52.7%。     

太湖流域旱涝与南海海温异常遥相关的历史见证

我国南海海温异常对长江中下游夏季旱涝的遥相关,已被许多实测资料研究所证实。太湖流域作为长江中下游的一部分,历史时期是否也存在相应的遥相关,通过大量历史资料分析,得出了肯定的回答。在此基础上,联系历史时期和实测资料时期的其它旱涝因素分析,建立了太湖流域旱涝变化模型。     

A Fourteen-Year Climatology of the Southwest Vortex in Summer

Statistical studies were conducted on the southwest vortex（SWV） during the summers of 2000–13 using high-resolution reanalysis data with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°× 0.5°. A total of 578 SWVs were detected, with a maximum interannual frequency of 55. The variation of the interannual frequency featured a period of around six years. The most active period of SWVs was early July and the maximum occurrence of SWVs appeared in early morning（0200–0800 Beijing Standard Time（BST））. Most of the SWVs were short-lived, with only 66 cases（11.4%） lasting for more than 24 h. In addition, the moving tracks and three-dimensional shape of long-lived（≥ 36 h） SWVs are also presented. For those SWVs that lasted for more than 12 h, four types of SWVs（Types I–IV） were identified using a new method, and the results indicated that the dynamical and thermodynamical conditions before the formation of SWVs are effective indicators of the subsequent evolution of the vortex and associated severe weathers. Moreover, a further level of classification was also constructed for Type II SWVs, which accounted for the largest proportion out of Types I–IV, and the results indicated that the lifespan, radius and maximum 6-h precipitation were all closely related to the intensity of precipitation before the formation of SWVs.     

西安市水资源及其可持续利用对策分析

采用1960年至2002年山西省21个气象站的夏季(6月至8月)降水、气温资料，计算了降水距平百分率、Z指数区域旱涝指标及考虑了气温、降水的干旱指数，并进行了对比分析，通过大量试验研究提出了一种适合山西的旱涝指数，以此划分了山西夏季的旱涝年，并研究了与全国雨带的关系。     

Extension and Intensification of the Meso-American mid-summer drought in the twenty-first century

Recent global-scale analyses of the CMIP3 model projections for the twenty-first century indicate a strong, coherent decreased precipitation response over Central America and the Intra-America Seas region. We explore this regional response and examine the models’ skill in representing present-day climate over this region. For much of Central America, the annual cycle of precipitation is characterized by a rainy season that extends from May to October with a period of reduced precipitation in July and August called the mid-summer drought. A comparison of the climate of the twentieth century simulations (20c3m) with observations over the period 1961–1990 shows that nearly all models underestimate precipitation over Central America, due in part to an underestimation of sea surface temperatures over the tropical North Atlantic and an excessively smooth representation of regional topographical features. However, many of the models capture the mid-summer drought. Differences between the A1B scenario (2061–2090) and 20c3m (1961–1990) simulations show decreased precipitation in the future climate scenario, mostly in June and July, just before and during the onset of the mid-summer drought. We thus hypothesize that the simulated twenty-first century drying over Central America represents an early onset and intensification of the mid-summer drought. An analysis of circulation changes indicates that the westward expansion and intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high associated with the mid-summer drought occurs earlier in the A1B simulations, along with stronger low-level easterlies. The eastern Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone is also located further southward in the scenario simulations. There are some indications that these changes could be forced by ENSO-like warming of the tropical eastern Pacific and increased land–ocean heating contrasts over the North American continent.     

温度植被干旱指数（TVDI）在草原干旱监测中的应用研究

以内蒙古锡林郭勒盟地区为研究对象,选取2010年研究区旱情发生显著变化的9、10月份的MODIS植被指数和陆地表面温度数据,构建草原地区NDVI-LST和EVI-LST特征空间,进而由此构建了草原地区的温度植被干旱指数（TVDI）,并结合当地气象数据和野外同步实地测量得到的土壤含水量数据对该指数进行定量验证。结果表明：（1）基于EVI-TS特征空间构建的TVDI,同样适用于旱情研究;且在研究区植被覆盖度不高的条件下,基于NDVI-TS特征空间的TVDI更适用于干旱监测;（2）构建的NDVI-TS和EVI-TS特征空间,其散点图符合三角形的关系,与前人研究成果相符;（3）TVDI可以很好地反映研究区的旱情变化情况,可以对研究区进行旱情动态监测;（4）基于NDVI-TS及EVI-TS空间构建的TVDI均与实地同步野外采集的土壤含水量数据结果显著负相关。且通过对基于TVDI的干旱监测结果与研究区实际情况对比分析发现,两者在旱区分布范围、旱情强度等级、干旱发展进程等方面基本吻合,说明TVDI可以在时间上很好监测旱情变化,TVDI可以用来评价草原干旱状况。     

中国主要河流干旱特性的统计分析

在大量实测年径流量资料的基础上，分析了作为水文干旱定量指标负轮长的统计变化特性，并以哈尔滨和陕县为例，以随模拟途径探讨了严重干旱出现可能性的定量估计方法。结论是：－Ⅲ型分布可用来表示负轮长的统计特征；严重干旱出现可能性的定量估计，随机模途径最适当。