基于F-MCDM的冰川旅游游客满意度综合评价及敏感性分析

游客满意度是衡量旅游地竞争力的关键因素之一,已受到众多旅游研究者的关注。在其热点研究中,有关冰川旅游游客满意度及不同游客属性间满意度差异的研究鲜见。选取达古冰川与海螺沟冰川为研究区,通过对游客属性细分,运用模糊多准则决策法（F-MCDM）及引入需求弹性理论对冰川旅游游客满意度进行了综合评价和敏感性分析,探讨了提升冰川旅游游客满意度的对策建议。结果表明：达古冰川游客实际满意度总体高于海螺沟冰川,两地均以管理与服务的满意度最高,消费状况与交通的满意度最低。就游客属性的相对满意度而言,两地均呈现男性满意度高于女性,高消费游客满意度高于低消费游客,高忠诚度游客满意度高于低忠诚度游客;两地相对满意度的差异表现在年龄、受教育程度、客源地和到访次数方面。相较于达古冰川,海螺沟冰川满意度敏感性更高,同等改进力度下游客满意度的提高更为明显高效,就两地满意度敏感性最高的景观特色而言,达古冰川1%的改善将提升游客满意度0.30%,而海螺沟冰川可提升0.45%;对于不同游客属性的满意度敏感性,两地均以不愿推荐、不愿重游和未达到期望的游客最高。最后依据满意度敏感性分析结果,为两地冰川旅游发展提出了关键属性改进、营销策略创新和旅游产品开发等针对性建议。     

利用滩坝砂体规模研究古风力的定量恢复*

古风力是一项重要的古气候指标,其定量恢复是一个难题。风作用于水体产生的波浪大小间接地反映了风力,能够为古风力的恢复提供思路。发育于破浪带和冲浪回流带的破浪沙坝、沿岸沙坝分别记录了破浪和冲浪过程,作者分别介绍利用古湖泊中发育的破浪沙坝和沿岸沙坝进行古波况和古风力恢复的原理和操作流程。(1)根据破浪沙坝的几何形态,可以将其厚度与破浪水深建立函数关系,而破浪水深又由破浪波高决定,因此破浪沙坝厚度可以恢复破浪波高,据此可以进一步根据波浪统计关系恢复有效波高、根据风浪关系恢复风力。此方法依托以下3个参数: 单期次的破浪沙坝厚度、破浪沙坝的基座坡角、古风程。(2)沿岸沙坝厚度近似记录了冲浪的极限高度,后者受控于有效波高,据此也可以恢复有效波高和风力。此方法依托以下5个参数: 单期次的沿岸沙坝厚度、古(平均)水深、古风程、古风向相对于岸线的入射角、组成沿岸沙坝的沉积物粒度。上述2种方法综合性较强,涉及古风向、古地形坡度、风程或盆地直径、古水深等参数的恢复,需要综合运用古地貌恢复、去压实校正、古岸线识别、古水深恢复等技术,并需要结合波浪理论。古湖泊滨岸带地层中保存有大量的滩坝沉积,利用其恢复古波况和古风况具有一定的应用前景,能够有助于更详细地重建沉积盆地的古地理背景。     

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.     

4种蒸发波导模型的对比与分析

蒸发波导模型常用来计算海上蒸发波导高度。为了认识当前不同蒸发波导模型之间的差异和方法,本文选取了目前使用广泛的4种蒸发波导模型(即P-J模型、Babin模型、NPS模型和伪折射率模型)进行对比和分析。本文首先探讨了在理想情况下它们对气象要素的敏感性,随后并利用我国南海近海大气层观测试验数据对比了这4种模型的蒸发波导高度计算结果。分析表明:相对湿度、风速和气—海温差的变化对4种模型的计算都有着较大的影响,特别是在不稳定层结状况下,4种模型计算得到的蒸发波导高度都随着相对湿度的增大而降低、随着风速的增大而增高。Babin模型和NPS模型计算的波导高度较为一致,伪折射率模型与前两种模型的计算结果存在差异,而P-J模型与其他3种模型存在较明显的偏差。基于南海气象数据的计算结果表明,不同蒸发波导模型在该海域蒸发波导的模拟结果略有不同,但4种模型计算得到的波导高度日变化变化趋势较为一致,波导高度极低值常出现在早晨,而极高值常出现在傍晚。     

Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.     

Applications of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to the study of the stability and sensitivity of the Jovian atmosphere

A two-layer quasi-geostrophic model is used to study the stability and sensitivity of motions on smallscale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and linear singular vectors (LSVs) are both obtained numerically and compared in this paper. The results show that CNOPs can capture the nonlinear characteristics of motions in small-scale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere and show great difference from LSVs under the condition that the initial constraint condition is large or the optimization time is not very short or both. Besides, in some basic states, local CNOPs are found. The pattern of LSV is more similar to local CNOP than global CNOP in some cases. The elementary application of the method of CNOP to the Jovian atmosphere helps us to explore the stability of variousscale motions of Jupiter’s atmosphere and to compare the stability of motions in Jupiter’s atmosphere and Earth’s atmosphere further.     

基于走时的保幅偏移方法

振幅随偏移距变化是描述储层特征的重要方法之一,保幅偏移方法就是使偏移剖面能够反映出振幅随偏移距的变化.本论文中的保幅偏移是以走时为基础,主要的方法是采用走时的双曲线展开法,通过走时的二阶空间导数来确定波前曲率.该方法通过建立在大网格上的走时表来确定插值系数,将大网格插值成为较为精细的网格,这样就节省了数据的存储空间.对于相同的网格密度,通过插值来计算走时表比采用程函方程有限差分法直接计算走时要节省5至6倍的时间.走时的插值系数还可以用来计算几何扩散因子、权函数,不仅提高了成像质量,还大大节省了计算时间.     

SH波入射时多个半圆形沉积谷地附近浅埋圆形孔洞的动力分析

本文采用辅助函数的思想,利用复变函数和多级坐标的方法给出了SH波入射条件下多个半圆形沉积谷地附近浅埋圆形孔洞动力分析问题的解答。将整个求解区域分割成两部分来处理,区域I为多个半圆形沉积谷地,区域II为浅埋圆形孔洞附近带半圆形凹陷的半无限弹性空间。在区域I和II中分别构造位移解,并在二个区域的“公共边界”上实施位移应力的连续条件,建立求解该问题的无穷代数方程组。最后,本文给出了算例和数值结果,并对其进行了讨论。     

氨氮胁迫对中华绒螯蟹(Eriocheir sinensis) 免疫功能的影响

在实验室条件下构建不同氨氮浓度环境和养殖时间的组间差异,研究氨氮胁迫对中华绒螯蟹免疫功能的影响。结果表明,中华绒螯蟹在NH 4-N3.0mg/L10天或1.0mg/L20天时,其血淋巴血细胞密度极显著地低于对照组(P<0.01)。NH4 -N2.0mg/L和3.0mg/L无论10天或20天,血细胞吞噬百分率均分别为显著(P<0.05)和极显著(P<0.01)地低于对照组。NH4 -N3.0mg/L10天或2.0mg/L20天,血细胞吞噬指数显著低于对照组(P<0.05)。NH4 -N1.0mg/L和2.0mg/L分别20天时,血清溶菌酶(LSZ)活力分别为显著(P<0.05)和极显著(P<0.01)地低于对照组。NH4 -N1.0—5.0mg/L10天时,血清酚氧化酶(PO)活力均极显著(P<0.01)下降;但NH4 -N1.0—4.0mg/L20天时,血清PO活力水平均比10天时有所上升。NH4 -N3.0—4.0mg/L10天或1.0—2.0mg/L20天,以及5.0mg/L10天或3.0—5.0mg/L20天时,超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活力分别为显著(P<0.05)和极显著(P<0.01)地低于对照组。上述结果表明,随着氨氮胁迫浓度的增加和胁迫时间的延长,会引起中华绒螯蟹血细胞数量、血细胞吞噬能力、溶菌酶活力、酚氧化酶活力和超氧化物歧化酶活力等的逐渐下降,使机体非特异性免疫防御系统遭到损伤,同时机体清除自由基的能力下降,机体细胞和组织受到伤害甚至出现死亡。     

KK型管节点应力集中系数几何敏感性分析

KK型管节点是自升式平台桁架式桩腿中的一种管节点,其应力集中系数是影响桩腿疲劳寿命的重要参数。应力集中系数与管节点的几何形式密切相关,为分析KK型管节点应力集中系数对几何参数的敏感性,利用ANSYS软件对某KK型管节点进行几何参数化建模,利用有限元数值模拟方法对各工况下的热点应力进行分析,并分别计算各相应工况下的名义应力,然后将热点应力与名义应力相比得到不同几何参数下的热点应力集中系数。对计算结果进行整理分析,得到了KK型管节点应力集中系数对无量纲几何参数的敏感性规律。结果表明,应力集中系数与撑杆受力状态、管节点结构形式有关,在满足结构布置、建造工艺和其他安全性指标的前提下,分析结果能够为KK型管节点的结构设计和疲劳分析提供技术支撑。