Using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistics to Compare Geostrophic Velocities Measured by the Jason,TOPEX, and Poseidon Altimeters

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used to compare probability density functions (PDFs) of geostrophic velocities measured by the TOPEX, Poseidon, and Jason altimeters. Velocity PDFs are computed in 2.5° by 2.5° boxes for regions equatorward of 60° latitude. Although velocities measured by the TOPEX and Jason altimeters can differ, on the basis of the K-S test the velocities are statistically equivalent during the ～200 day period when the satellites followed the same orbit. Full records from TOPEX, Poseidon, and Jason show less agreement, which can be attributed to temporal variability in ocean surface velocities and differing levels of measurement noise.     

厦门城市空间拓展的生态敏感性评价

在综合分析海湾型城市自然生态与社会生态属性的基础上,选取了高程、坡度、河流水库、植被覆盖、土地覆盖和生态保护区等6个因子,作为生态敏感性评价的指标。另外,借助GIS空间分析单因子评价与多因子加权综合评价方法,研究了生态敏感性程度及其空间分布特征,将厦门的生态敏感性划分为4级:不敏感、较敏感、中敏感和高敏感。综合评价结果表明,厦门市生态敏感性在空间分布上差异显著:高度敏感区占研究区总面积的28.1%,低敏感区和不敏感区分别占研究区总面积的27.9%和33.6%。中度敏感区占的比例较小,仅为10.4%。     

改进型经验正交函数海洋声速剖面预报方法

鉴于深海温跃层以下往往声速值缺乏,声速剖面不完整的原因,提出一种声速剖面的预报方法：在传统经验正交函数预报法基础上,首先改进协方差矩阵的求解方法,将原始数据的空间信息和时间信息有效地融合到协方差矩阵中,通过由大量实测数据统计得出的时间函数的经验公式,得到合成剖面,将二者结合,把不完整剖面垂直向下延拓到海底,较为有效地解决了传统方法求解协方差矩阵和时间函数较粗糙的问题,给出了完整的海洋声速剖面的准确预报。实测数据检验结果表明,改进方法的预报精度比传统方法有了很大提高。     

Estimating Petroleum Resources Using Geo-Anchored Method--A Sensitivity Study

The Geo-anchored method, based on a moment-type estimator, has been developed for estimating parent population properties from a successive sample of discoveries. By substituting the expectation of the waiting time z _(n+1) of the (n + 1) ^th discovery to occurrence for an unknown parameter in the anchored method, the Geo-anchored method allows estimation of inclusion probabilities directly from observed data, thus eliminating the need for a priori selection of a value of N, R, or some other feature of the parent population. Because direct estimation of N and R requires an ordered sample, the Geo-anchored method is more sensitive to the data-generating process than the anchored method. This paper presents a sensitivity study on the Geo-anchored method. The test is based on simulated discovery sequences with different assumptions regarding discovery efficiency, exploration maturity, and the shape of the parent field size distribution. As a reference for comparison, estimates from the Horvitz–Thompson estimator also are presented.     

同伦函数与填充函数相结合的非线性最小二乘平差模型

提出了同伦函数与填充函数相结合进行非线性最小二乘平差的方法。先采用同伦函数求解非线性恰定方程组,得到一个局部最优解,然后以该局部最优解为基础构造填充函数,通过对填充函数求解,得到比当前局部最优解更小的局部极小点,再以该局部极小点为基础重新构造同伦函数和填充函数进行求解,通过有限步的循环迭代,最终找到非线性最小二乘平差的全局最优解。实例验证,该方法能有效地寻找出非线性最小二乘平差的全局最优解。     

不同草地类型净初级生产力(NPP)模拟及其敏感性分析

气候变化问题作为人类社会可持续发展面临的重大挑战,受到国际社会越来越强烈的关注.全球气候变化深刻影响着草地生态系统,定量评估区域和不同类型草地生态系统的生产力,研究其对气候变化的敏感性可以为草地生态系统适应未来气候变化提供基础数据和理论依据.草原综合顺序分类系统(CSCS)将天然草原分为42类(其中中国包含41类),并...     

Multi-resolution adaptive modeling of groundwater flow and transport problems

Many groundwater flow and transport problems, especially those with sharp fronts, narrow transition zones, layers and fingers, require extensive computational resources. In this paper, we present a novel multi-resolution adaptive Fup approach to solve the above mentioned problems. Our numerical procedure is the Adaptive Fup Collocation Method (AFCM), based on Fup basis functions and designed through a method of lines (MOL). Fup basis functions are localized and infinitely differentiable functions with compact support and are related to more standard choices such as splines or wavelets. This method enables the adaptive multi-resolution approach to solve problems with different spatial and temporal scales with a desired level of accuracy using the entire family of Fup basis functions. In addition, the utilized collocation algorithm enables the mesh free approach with consistent velocity approximation and flux continuity due to properties of the Fup basis functions. The introduced numerical procedure was tested and verified by a few characteristic groundwater flow and transport problems, the Buckley–Leverett multiphase flow problem, the 1-D vertical density driven problem and the standard 2-D seawater intrusion benchmark–Henry problem. The results demonstrate that the method is robust and efficient particularly when describing sharp fronts and narrow transition zones changing in space and time.     

钢框架结构的非线性静力抗震可靠性分析 II:可靠度指标及其灵敏度

将有限元反应及其灵敏度分析与结构可靠度分析的近似解析方法结合起来,可以进行具有隐式功能函数的大型复杂结构的可靠性分析。在基于位移的非线性纤维梁柱单元及其灵敏度直接微分表达式的基础上,通过力学变换、概率变换和反应灵敏度,将结构可靠度计算方法FORM和SORM与有限元方法有机地集成在一起。依据现行抗震设计规范,建立了钢框架结构典型构件承载能力和结构层间变形能力的抗震极限状态方程,利用地震作用的等效随机静力模型,采用非线性有限元静力可靠度方法,对一实际工程结构的抗震可靠度及其灵敏度进行了概率分析和评价,结果表明:尽管在大震作用下该结构的层间弹塑性变形可靠度较高,但是构件极限承载能力的可靠度指标较低,仍然存在失效的可能性。因此,仅验算\"小震\"作用下结构的承载能力可靠度和\"大震\"作用下结构的变形能力可靠度是不够的,还需要验算在\"中震\"和\"大震\"作用下结构的极限承载能力可靠度。     

静力触探技术在东海陆架工程勘察中的应用研究

通过对东海大陆架海底浅表层土样的静力触探参数进行统计分析,得到该区域细砂、粘土、淤泥质土和淤泥的静力触探统计值,建立了研究海区基于静力触探参数的土类判别图,可用于快速判定土的类别.根据静力触探参数,并应用经验公式估算了海底粘性土的抗剪强度和灵敏度,对估算公式经验系数选择进行了深入研究,提出在研究海区应用经验公式进行粘性...