内蒙古区域数值预报对探空和地面观测资料的敏感性试验研究

基于内蒙古睿图预报系统的低分辨率版本和WRFDA-FSO诊断工具,评估2021年7月现有探空和地面观测对内蒙古睿图预报系统预报的影响。该方法计算代价相对低廉,并允许根据观测变量、观测类型、气压层次、地理区域等观测的子集对观测影响进行划分。代价函数为以干总能量为度量的背景场和分析场的预报误差之间的差异。结果表明:观测影响的总体总和为负,观测对预报起正贡献作用。对12 h预报误差减小贡献最大的观测来自探空观测的动力变量(U、V风分量)。而单时次单位数量平均观测影响,探空观测的贡献约为地面观测的1/2。探空观测对12 h预报误差减小从近地面层至模式层顶均保持正贡献作用,并在对流层中低层和对流层高空急流层存在两个极大值区域;地面观测在850 hPa以下低层正贡献占比明显。探空观测在被同化系统同化时均总体具有有利的影响,也反映出探空观测数据稳定、质量较高的特征;地面观测对12 h预报误差减小起正贡献作用次数最多的区域在河套地区尤为显著。同时,探讨了需进一步提高地面观测资料同化率的问题。     

Curve‐Number/Green–Ampt mixed procedure for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins: Parameter sensitivity analysis

A procedure combining the Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method and the Green–Ampt (GA) infiltration equation was recently developed to overcome some of the drawbacks of the classic SCS‐CN approach when estimating the volume of surface runoff at a sub‐daily time resolution. The rationale of this mixed procedure, named Curve Number for Green–Ampt (CN4GA), is to use the GA infiltration model to distribute the total volume of the net hyetograph (rainfall excess) provided by the SCS‐CN method over time. The initial abstraction and the total volume of rainfall given by the SCS‐CN method are used to identify the ponding time and to quantify the hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA equation. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of the mixed CN4GA parameters is presented with the aim to identify conditions where the mixed procedure can be effectively used within the Prediction in Ungauged Basin perspective. The effects exerted by changes in selected input parameters on the outputs are evaluated using rectangular and triangular synthetic hyetographs as well as 100 maximum annual storms selected from synthetic rainfall time series. When applied to extreme precipitation events, which are characterized by predominant peaks of rainfall, the CN4GA appears to be rather insensitive to the input hydraulic parameters of the soil, which is an interesting feature of the CN4GA approach and makes it an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess estimation at sub‐daily temporal resolution at ungauged sites. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating controls on the thermal sensitivity of Pennsylvania streams

Stream temperature, an important measure of ecosystem health, is expected to be altered by future changes in climate and land use, potentially leading to shifts in habitat distribution for aquatic organisms dependent on particular temperature regimes. To assess the sensitivity of stream temperature to change in a region where such a shift has the potential to occur, we examine the variability of and controls on the direct relationship between air and water temperature across the state of Pennsylvania. We characterized the relationship between air and stream temperature via linear and nonlinear regression for 57 sites across Pennsylvania at daily and weekly timescales. Model fit (r²) improved for 92% (daily) and 65% (weekly) of sites for nonlinear versus linear relationships. Fit for weekly versus daily regression analysis improved by 0·08 for linear and 0·06 for nonlinear regression relationships. To investigate the mechanisms controlling stream temperature sensitivity to environmental change, we define ‘thermal sensitivity’ as the sensitivity of stream temperature of a given site to change in air temperature, quantified as the slope of the regression line between air and stream temperature. Air temperature accounted for 60–95% of the daily variation in stream temperature for sites at or above a Strahler stream order (SO) of 3, with thermal sensitivities ranging from low (0·02) to high (0·93). The sensitivity of stream temperature to air temperature is primarily controlled by stream size (SO) and baseflow contribution. Together, SO and baseflow index explained 43% of the variance in thermal sensitivity across the state, and 59% within the Susquehanna River Basin. In small streams, baseflow contribution was the major determinant of thermal sensitivity, with increasing baseflow contributions resulting in decreasing sensitivity values. In large streams, thermal sensitivity increased with stream size, as a function of accumulated heat throughout the stream network. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

河岸带蜿蜒性与植被密度对潜流驻留时间的复合效应

潜流驻留时间是反映潜流交换、溶质迁移转化、生物组成、生态过程的重要特征变量。应用双循环可控式河岸带模型，以NaCl为示踪剂，深入研究了河岸带蜿蜒性与植被密度对潜流驻留时间的复合效应；应用量纲分析和主成分分析法，探析了潜流驻留时间的关键影响因子及其作用程度和敏感性。结果表明：①河岸带植被密度对潜流驻留时间具有促进作用，但存在一定的阈值。②潜流驻留时间分布与河岸蜿蜒形态呈类镜像效应；潜流驻留时间在河岸带蜿蜒波不同位置差异明显，迎水面平均驻留时间约为背水面的1/2。③河岸带蜿蜒性与植被密度是影响潜流驻留时间的关键因子，总作用程度达91.07%。潜流驻留时间对蜿蜒性最敏感，对植被密度敏感性较弱，对复合因子的敏感性介于两者之间；迎水面内组合因子对潜流驻留时间具有共同促进效应，背水面内组合因子对潜流驻留时间具有抑制和促进双重效应。     

焦耳效应标定高温卡尔维微量热计

根据热流式量热计的Tian氏方程,用焦耳效应标定高温卡尔维微量热计。用偏差法得到的灵敏度值与积分法测得的值一致。用回归曲线对灵敏度实验值进行拟合,利用计算机求得灵敏度—温度回归曲线,得到了室温至700℃的全部灵敏度值,从而即可使用微量热计测量此温度范围内的未知样品热效应。     

参数敏感性分析与试验方案优化

在单因素敏感性分析的基础上,定义了无量纲形式的敏感度函数和敏感度因子,使得多因素敏感性分析具有可比性。作为算例,对拉西瓦地下工程的稳定性进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,水平向地应力σ_x和岩体弹性模量E是影响地下主厂房高边墙水平向变形的敏感因素。分析还表明,敏感因素与基准参数集有关,基准参数集不同,结论将有差异。本文还提出了试验方案优化的概念,并指出参数敏感性分析是试验方案优化的基础。     

Application of the weighted residual method to diffraction by 2-D canyons of arbitrary shape: I. Incident SH waves

A solution for the two-dimensional scattering and diffraction of plane SH waves by canyons of arbitrary shape in an elastic half space is presented. The wave field for arbitrary geometry in this paper is computed numerically by the method of weighted residues (moment method). The wave displacement field computed by the present residual method for the case of a semi-circular canyon was shown to agree analytically and numerically with that computed by the exact closed form series solution. The same observations about ground amplifications, their dependence on frequencies and orientations of the incident waves, can be stated here for canyons of arbitrary shape as previously made for circular canyons.     

全球月平均高度距平场正斜压性的分析(Ⅱ)——与遥相关型的联系

利用欧洲中心全球客观分析的7层月平均位势高度距平资料,计算了几种大气环流遥相关型指数与各层位势高度距平的相关系数分布。发现:大气环流异常的正压、斜压性的地理差异与遥相关型的垂直结构关系密切。综合经验正交函数分析,结果亦然。