地下水有机污染的水文地球化学标志物探讨——以河南油田为例

经过野外现场调查和取样分析及室内研究得知南阳油田地下水已遭受不同程度的有机物污染，且污染范围可能进一步向油田南部扩散。根据近似地下水流线方向上地下水中总油质量浓度和Fe,Mn等无机组分的变化势态，结合含水介质化学分析结果，发现硫酸盐、Fe和Mn可作为地下水有机污染和地球化学标志物。在含水介质中Fe和Mn质量浓度较高的地方，地下水有机污染物降解速度快，含水介质中Fe和Mn的氧化物和氢氧化物的还原作用导致了含水层介质中Fe和Mn的缺乏和地下水中溶解Fe和Mn的积聚；在含水介质中Fe和Mn质量浓度低的地方，地下水中的有机物质量浓度并没有降低，相应地地下水中溶解Fe和Mn的质量浓度也很低。同时，由于有机污染物的存在使地下水中硫酸盐被还原，导致城下水中硫酸盐质量浓度偏低，且地下水中Fe对有机物污染的敏感性比Mn强。     

环境污染调查中磁与电磁测量新技术的应用

探查和监测废弃埋藏物的污染状况是环境灾害调查的重要内容,而采用地球物理探测方法进行调查通常是最为经济、快速有效的。西方发达国家近年应用物探新方法技术在环境灾害监测、废弃埋藏物调查方面取得了很好的效果,为环境保护部门提供了可靠的资料。文中介绍美国最近几年采用高精度磁测和电磁测量进行浅层（埋深小于４ｍ）废弃金属埋藏物、战争遗留物（如炸弹）及化学污染物的调查新方法与新技术。研究结果表明,采用下列方法将有效地增强环境污染源的异常信号,提高物探方法在环境灾害调查中的探测能力：高分辨率的测量仪器,如精度达００１ｎＴ的航空磁力仪,进行数据采集并辅以ＧＰＳ定位;降低飞行高度、加密测网布置精细网格;采用校正和滤波等手段消除噪声干扰,并通过物理模拟和数值反演作出定量解释;航空磁测、电磁测量与地面磁梯度、地质雷达等不同方法配合等。     

地-井电磁成像的灵敏度分析

本文着重讨论地—井电磁成像的灵敏度,包括不同观测分量、不同观测位置和不同工作频率的灵敏度函数的分布,为成像系统的布置和数据解释提供理论上的指导     

Curve-Fitting Schemes for Fragmentation Data

Fragmentation measurements in the form of sieve passing and mass fraction data were used to test the capability of three different distributions to fit the observed data over a wide range in fragment size and mass. These distributions were based on Rosin-Rammler, lognormal and simple sigmoidal (S-shaped) functions, having 2 input parameters for the single-component versions and 5 input parameters for the two-component versions. Provided convergence was achieved in the non-linear curve-fitting technique, the two-component versions always provided superior fits to the observed data. However, these versions were very sensitive to variations in the values chosen for the input parameters. In this particular regard, the two-component sigmoidal function was the most robust. The present results also show that the two-component lognormal function provided the best fit to the fragmentation data in a general sense, and the two-component Rosin-Rammler function provided the worst fit. However, there was not a significant difference between any of the three methods.     

基于H-B准则的公路桥梁桩基嵌岩深度计算

基于Hoek-Brown强度准则,推导了在微小转动下嵌岩段桩侧法向应力及水平摩阻力计算模型,采用静力平衡原理建立了水平荷载作用下公路桥梁桩基嵌岩深度的计算公式,提出了嵌岩深度计算的新方法。参数敏感性及影响因素分析表明： （1）水平荷载引起的力矩 、桩径d、岩层上覆压力 、岩石单轴抗压强度 、岩体类别参数 、岩体地质力学分类指标RMR均对嵌岩深度有一定影响,在 、d不变的情况下,岩体质量和岩石单轴抗压强度对嵌岩深度的确定最为敏感; （2）岩体质量越差,所需嵌岩深度越大;岩体质量越好,岩层上覆压力对嵌岩深度影响越小,反之越大。（3）嵌岩深度随岩石单轴抗压强度的提高呈非线性缓慢地减小,在相同的单轴抗压强度下,岩体质量越好,嵌岩深度越小,反之越大。     

参数敏感性分析与试验方案优化

在单因素敏感性分析的基础上,定义了无量纲形式的敏感度函数和敏感度因子,使得多因素敏感性分析具有可比性。作为算例,对拉西瓦地下工程的稳定性进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,水平向地应力σ_x和岩体弹性模量E是影响地下主厂房高边墙水平向变形的敏感因素。分析还表明,敏感因素与基准参数集有关,基准参数集不同,结论将有差异。本文还提出了试验方案优化的概念,并指出参数敏感性分析是试验方案优化的基础。     

考虑渗透率变化的煤层气储层数值模拟及参数敏感性研究

煤层气开采过程中储层渗透率的变化对产气量影响较大,通过引入S＆D渗透率变化模型,建立了考虑渗透率变化的煤储层三维气水两相渗流数学模型,完成模型检验后应用所编制软件研究了煤储层参数、吸附参数及渗透率模型特征参数对开发效果的影响。结果表明,煤层气产量随着初始含气量、煤层有效厚度、裂缝渗透率和Langmuir压力的增大而增大,随储层原始压力、裂缝孔隙度和Langmuir体积的增大而减小,而解吸时间对产气量影响不大;裂缝渗透率随着杨氏模量和基质收缩/膨胀系数的增大而增大,随泊松比和裂缝压缩系数的增大而减小。引入S＆D模型后计算的累积产气量要比常规模型低1.3%,因此不可忽视煤层气产出过程中渗透率的变化。     

Uncertainty and sensitivity in a bank stability model: implications for estimating phosphorus loading

Eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems is one of the most pressing water quality concerns in the United States and around the world. Bank erosion has been largely overlooked as a source of nutrient loading, despite field studies demonstrating that this source can account for the majority of the total phosphorus load in a watershed. Substantial effort has been made to develop mechanistic models to predict bank erosion and instability in stream systems; however, these models do not account for inherent natural variability in input values. To quantify the impacts of this omission, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed on the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM), a mechanistic model developed by the US Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service (USDA‐ARS) that simulates both mass wasting and fluvial erosion of streambanks. Generally, bank height, soil cohesion, and plant species were found to be most influential in determining stability of clay (cohesive) banks. In addition to these three inputs, groundwater elevation, stream stage, and bank angle were also identified as important in sand (non‐cohesive) banks. Slope and bank height are the dominant variables in fluvial erosion modeling, while erodibility and critical shear stress had low sensitivity indices; however, these indices do not reflect the importance of critical shear stress in determining the timing of erosion events. These results identify important variables that should be the focus of data collection efforts while also indicating which less influential variables may be set to assumed values. In addition, a probabilistic Monte‐Carlo modeling approach was applied to data from a watershed‐scale sediment and phosphorus loading study on the Missisquoi River, Vermont to quantify uncertainty associated with these published results. While our estimates aligned well with previous deterministic modeling results, the uncertainty associated with these predictions suggests that they should be considered order of magnitude estimates only. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

结构双层多重调谐质量阻尼器(DMTMD)控制策略的鲁棒性评价

基于定义的二类优化目标函数,评价双层多重调谐质量阻尼器(DMTMD)控制策略对漂移频率系数(DFR)摄动的鲁棒性。数值研究表明,使用第二类优化准则设计的DMTMD、双重调谐质量阻尼器(DTMD)和多重调谐质量阻尼器(MTMD)比使用第一类优化准则设计的DMTMD、DTMD和MTMD具有更高的对DFR摄动的鲁棒性。而且,使用第二类优化准则设计的总数为4的DMTMD、DTMD和总数为11的MTMD具有近似相同的对DFR摄动的鲁棒性。     

Hydrological model for urban catchments – analytical development using copulas and numerical solution

Abstract

A model based on analytical development and numerical solution is presented for estimating the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the runoff volume and peak discharge rate of urban floods using the joint probability density function (pdf) of rainfall volume and duration together with information about the catchment's physical characteristics. The joint pdf of rainfall event volume and duration is derived using the theory of copulas. Four families of Archimedean copulas are tested in order to select the most appropriate to reproduce the dependence structure of those variables. Frequency distributions of runoff event volume and peak discharge rate are obtained following the derived probability distribution theory, using the functional relationship given by the rainfall–runoff process. The model is tested in two urban catchments located in the cities of Chillán and Santiago, Chile. The results are compared with the outcomes of continuous simulation in the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and with those from another analytical model that assumes storm event duration and volume to be statistically independent exponentially distributed variables.

Citation Zegpi, M. & Fernández, B. (2010) Hydrological model for urban catchments – analytical development using copulas and numerical solution. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1123–1136.