The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
Garnet-bearing schists from the Waterville Formation of south-central Maine provide an opportunity to examine the factors
governing porphyroblast size over a range of metamorphic grade. Three-dimensional sizes and locations for all garnet porphyroblasts
were determined for three samples along the metamorphic field gradient spanning lowest garnet through sillimanite grade, using
high-resolution X-ray computed tomography. Comparison of crystal size distributions to previous data sets obtained by stereological
methods for the same samples reveals significant differences in mode, mean, and shape of the distributions. Quantitative textural
analysis shows that the garnets in each rock crystallized in a diffusion-controlled nucleation and growth regime. In contrast
to the typical observation of a correlation between porphyroblast size and position along a metamorphic field gradient, porphyroblast
size of the lowest-grade specimen is intermediate between the high- and middle-grade specimens’ sizes. Mean porphyroblast
size does not correlate with peak temperatures from garnet-biotite Fe-Mg exchange thermometry, nor is post-crystallization
annealing (Ostwald Ripening) required to produce the observed textures, as was previously proposed for these rocks. Robust
pseudosection calculations fail to reproduce the observed garnet core compositions for two specimens, suggesting that these
calc-pelites experienced metasomatism. For each of these two specimens, Monte Carlo calculations suggest potential pre-metasomatism
bulk compositions that replicate garnet core compositions. Pseudosection analyses allow the estimation of the critical temperatures
for garnet growth: ∼481, ∼477, and ∼485°C for the lowest-garnet-zone, middle-garnet-zone, and sillimanite-zone specimens,
respectively. Porphyroblast size appears to be determined in this case by a combination of the heating rate during garnet
crystallization, the critical temperature for the garnet-forming reaction and the kinetics of nucleation. Numerical simulations
of thermally accelerated, diffusion-controlled nucleation, and growth for the three samples closely match measured crystal
size distributions. These observations and simulations suggest that previous hypotheses linking the garnet size primarily
to the temperature at the onset of porphyroblast nucleation can only partially explain the observed textures. Also important
in determining porphyroblast size are the heating rate and the distribution of favorable nucleation sites. 相似文献
Swath bathymetry data and seismic reflection profiles have been used to investigate details of the deformation pattern in the area offshore southwestern Taiwan where the Luzon subduction complex encroaches on the passive Chinese continental margin. Distinctive fold-and-thrust structures of the convergent zone and horst-and-graben structures of the passive margin are separated by a deformation front that extends NNW-ward from the eastern edge of the Manila Trench to the foot of the continental slope. This deformation front gradually turns into a NNE–SSW trending direction across the continental slope and the Kaoping Shelf, and connects to the frontal thrusts of the mountain belt on land Taiwan. However, the complex Penghu submarine canyon system blurs the exact location of the deformation front and nature of many morphotectonic features offshore SW Taiwan. We suggest that the deformation front offshore SW Taiwan does not appear as a simple structural line, but is characterized by a series of N–S trending folds and thrusts that terminate sequentially in an en-echelon pattern across the passive Chinese continental slope. A number of NE–SW trending lineaments cut across the fold-and-thrust structures of the frontal accretionary wedge and exhibit prominent dextral displacement indicative of the lateral expulsion of SW Taiwan. One of the prominent lineaments, named the Yung-An lineament, forms the southeastern boundary of the upper part of the Penghu submarine canyon, and has conspicuous influence over the drainage pattern of the canyon 相似文献
The Agulhas Ridge is a prominent topographic feature that parallels the Agulhas-Falkland Fracture Zone (AFFZ). Seismic reflection
and wide angle/refraction data have led to the classification of this feature as a transverse ridge. Changes in spreading
rate and direction associated with ridge jumps, combined with asymmetric spreading within the Agulhas Basin, modified the
stress field across the fracture zone. Moreover, passing the Agulhas Ridge’s location between 80 and 69 Ma, the Bouvet and
Shona Hotspots may have supplied excess material to this part of the AFFZ thus altering the ridge’s structure. The low crustal
velocities and overthickened crust of the northern Agulhas Ridge segment indicate a possible continental affinity that suggests
it may be formed by a small continental sliver, which was severed off the Maurice Ewing Bank during the opening of the South
Atlantic. In early Oligocene times the Agulhas Ridge was tectono-magmatically reactivated, as documented by the presence of
basement highs disturbing and disrupting the sedimentary column in the Cape Basin. We consider the Discovery Hotspot, which
distributes plume material southwards across the AAFZ, as a source for the magmatic material. 相似文献
In this study, the seismic response control of offshore platform structures with Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) dampers is investigated. A new SMA damper and its restoring force medel are introduced for the calculation of seismic response reduction. Based on an actual platform structure and its mechanical medel, the parameters which may affect the rate of shock absorption are analyzed, such as the number, position and characteristics of the SMA dampers and the condition of the site where the platform is located. The results show that the SMA damper is an effective control device for offshore platforms and satisfactory control can be achieved by proper selection of the parameters. 相似文献
The southwestern part of the Scotia Sea, at the corner of the Shackleton Fracture Zone with the South Scotia Ridge has been investigated, combining marine magnetic profiles, multichannel seismic reflection data, and satellite-derived gravity anomaly data. From the integrated analysis of data, we identified the presence of the oldest part of the crust in this sector, which tentative age is older than anomaly C10 (28.7 Ma). The area is surrounded by structural features clearly imaged by seismic data, which correspond to gravity lows in the satellite-derived map, and presents a rhomboid-shaped geometry. Along its southern boundary, structural features related to convergence and possible incipient subduction beneath the continental South Scotia Ridge have been evidenced from the seismic profile. We interpret this area, now located at the edge of the south-western Scotia Sea, as a relict of ocean-like crust formed during an earlier, possibly diffuse and disorganized episode of spreading at the first onset of the Drake Passage opening. The successive episode of organized seafloor spreading responsible for the opening of the Drake Passage that definitively separated southern South America from the Antarctic Peninsula, instigated ridge-push forces that can account for the subduction-related structures found along the western part of the South Scotia Ridge. This seafloor accretion phase occurred from 27 to about 10 Ma, when spreading stopped in the western Scotia Sea Ridge, as resulted from the identification of the marine magnetic anomalies. 相似文献
A seismic refraction study on old (110 Myr) lithosphere in the northwest Pacific Basin has placed constraints on crustal and uppermantle seismic structure of old oceanic lithosphere, and lithospheric aging processes. No significant lateral variation in structure other than azimuthally anisotropic mantle velocities was found, allowing the application of powerful amplitude modeling techniques. The anisotropy observed is in an opposite sense to that expected, suggesting the tectonic setting of the area may be more complex than originally thought. Upper crustal velocities are generally larger than for younger crust, supporting current theories of decreased porosity with crustal aging. However, there is no evidence for significant thickening of the oceanic crust with age, nor is there any evidence of a lower crustal layer of high or low velocity relative to the velocity of the rest of Layer 3. The compressional and shear wave velocities rule out a large component of serpentinization of mantle materials. The only evidence for a basal crustal layer of olivine gabbro cumulates is a 1.5 km thick Moho transition zone. In the slow direction of anisotropy, upper mantle velocities increase from 8.0 km s-1 to 8.35 km s-1 in the upper 15 km below the Moho. This increase is inconsistent with an homogeneous upper mantle and suggests that compositinal or phase changes occur near the Moho. 相似文献