飞机人工增雨的农业效益评估

利用催化剂线源扩散模式确定人工增雨作业后的目标区,并采用非随机活动对比区和目标区分层历史回归的方法估算作业效果。这评估增雨对农业的影响,利用自然降水对农作物产量贡献的积分回归,获得降水对农作物贡献系数。建立了每次人工增雨对主要农作物的经济效益模型。从而可根据增雨量对农作物产生的直接经济效益进行实时、动态、定量评估。     

1951年以来中国无霜期的变化趋势

准确界定无霜期及初、终霜日的时空变化是减少气候变化对农业生产的危害、有效提升农业适应性的重要内容。根据1951年以来国内824个气象站点日最低气温资料,分析初、终霜日和无霜期在全国的分布特征,采用累积距平和线性倾向估计模拟三者的变化趋势,并对无霜期进行突变检验。结果显示：① 中国无霜期随纬度增加或海拔升高而减少,无霜期的年际波动幅度随纬度增加或随海拔降低而减少。② 中国80%以上区域呈现初霜日推后、终霜日提前和无霜期延长的趋势,且三者的变化幅度均是北方大于南方、东部大于西部。③ 中国多数农区无霜期延长是初霜日推后和终霜日提前共同影响,而西南区和长江中下游区部分地区无霜期延长是初霜日的推后幅度大于终霜日的推后幅度或终霜日的提前幅度大于初霜日的提前幅度。④ 中国过半区域无霜期在1980s和1990s发生突变。突变集中分布在东北区中西部、内蒙及长城沿线区、黄淮海区、青藏区和甘新区;突变时间上,东部农区和西部农区无霜期分别在1980s和1990s突变。     

The boreal spring stratospheric final warming and its interannual and interdecadal variability

Based on the daily NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data,dates of the boreal spring Stratospheric Final Warming(SFW) events during 1979–2010 are defined as the time when the zonal-mean zonal wind at the central latitudes(65°–75°N) of the westerly polar jet drops below zero and never recovers until the subsequent autumn.It is found that the SFW events occur successively from the mid to the lower stratosphere and averagely from the mid to late April with a temporal lag of about 13 days from 10 to 50 hPa.Over the past 32 years,the earliest SFW occurs in mid March whereas the latest SFW happens in late May,showing a clear interannual variability of the time of SFW.Accompanying the SFW onset,the stratospheric circulation transits from a winter dynamical regime to a summertime state,and the maximum negative tendency of zonal wind and the strongest convergence of planetary-wave are observed.Composite results show that the early/late SFW events in boreal spring correspond to a quicker/slower transition of the stratospheric circulation,with the zonal-mean zonal wind reducing about 20/5 m s-1 at 30 hPa within 10 days around the onset date.Meanwhile,the planetary wave activities are relatively strong/weak associating with an out-of-/in-phase circumpolar circulation anomaly before and after the SFW events in the stratosphere.All these results indicate that,the earlier breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV),as for the winter stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events is driven mainly by wave forcing;and in contrast,the later breakdown of the SPV exhibits more characteristics of its seasonal evolution.Nevertheless,after the breakdown of SPV,the polar temperature anomalies always exhibit an out-of-phase relationship between the stratosphere and the troposphere for both the early and late SFW events,which implies an intimate stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling in spring.In addition,there exists a remarkable interdecadal change of the onset time of SFW in the mid 1990s.On average,the SFW onset time before the mid 1990s is 11 days earlier than that afterwards,corresponding to the increased/decreased planetary wave activities in late winter-early spring before/after the 1990s.     

A new method in determining potential region of precipitation enhancement above coastal land

To ensure the effectiveness of the operation of artificial precipitation enhancement, a potential region for the operation should be determined in advance.As cloud microphysical measurements needed for the determination of the potential region of cloud seeding are not available before the operation of routine precipitation enhancement, a new method based on the growth process of ice crystal is put forward for determining the potential region using the numerical weather prediction model output.The ice supersaturation, accumulated water vapor within minus temperature layer (≥9 mm), and upward water vapor transportation are adopted as criteria to determine the potential time, height and region of cloud seeding, and the real-time radar images are applied to make decisions on the seeding commanding.The criteria and Doppler radar images are studied in a case of precipitation enhancement characterized by significant water vapor supply from the north part of a tropical cyclone in the northwest Pacific, which shows that the ocean plays a crucial role in the advection transportation of water vapor to the potential region of the coastal area.The study presents a new method to determine the potential region of precipitation enhancement using macro-physical quantities under ice crystal growth environment.The method possesses a clear physical significance and can be readily applied with the required and easily predicted parameters.     

Erosion control for mudstone soil with ventilation and watertight resin

To accelerate the re-vegetation of exposed landslide areas, hydroseeding for soil and water conservation has been widely applied as one of the economically feasible ways. However, effect durations of different hydroseeding materials are different, the formulation density has a certain effect on plant growth and the addictives may exude. This paper presents laboratory experiments of soil erosion, exuding water quality and soil hardness by using a rainfall simulator with different conditions of slope, rainfall intensity and medication density. The results showed that soil erosion decreased significantly, suggesting a good erosion-resisting effect by the ventilation and watertight resin. No significant variation of the exuded water was observed during testing, which indicates that after gelling, the ventilation and watertight resin are unlikely to release chemical substances. It was found that high resin density will result in poor workability as well as high costs; adverse will cause the mudstone to fracture due to raindrops since cracks are common to soil surface. The weatherability after spraying and its effect on plant vegetation still need further investigation.     

黑龙江省43a初霜冻时空特征分析及对主要作物安全成熟的影响

本文对黑龙江省近43a初霜冻趋势时空特征进行了分析，在空间上，全省平均每10a向北推移1-2d：在时间上，年变化推迟0．094d，43a来平均推迟约4d。根据黑龙江省各主要作物成熟期的时空分布情况，讨论了初霜冻对主要作物安全成熟的影响。     

Basalt and tonalite from the Amami Plateau, northern West Philippine Basin: New Early Cretaceous ages and geochemical results, and their petrologic and tectonic implications

Abstract Basalts and tonalites dredged from the Amami Plateau in the northern West Philippine Basin have the geochemical characteristics of intraoceanic island arc rocks: low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70297–0.70310), intermediate ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51288–0.51292), moderate light rare earth element (LREE) enrichment (La/Yb = 4.1–6.6) and high La/Nb (1.4–4.3). The incremental heating of hornblende from tonalites yielded well‐defined plateaus and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar isochron ages of 115.8 ± 0.5 Ma and 117.0 ± 1.1 Ma, while plagioclase yielded disturbed Ar release patterns, with ages ranging from 70 to 112 Ma. Taken together, these results show that the Amami Plateau was formed by subduction‐related magmatism in the Early Cretaceous period, earlier than indicated by prior K/Ar results. The results support tectonic models in which the West Philippine Basin was opened within a complex of Jurassic–Paleocene island arc terranes, which are now scattered in the northern West Philippine Basin, the Philippine Islands and Halmahera. The Amami Plateau tonalites and basalts have higher Sr/Y and lower Y and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr compared with younger tonalitic rocks from the northern Kyushu–Palau Ridge and the Tanzawa complex, which were formed by the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Philippine Sea Plate. Based on the geochemical characteristics of the basalts, the Early Cretaceous subduction zone that formed the Amami Plateau may have been the site of slab melting, which suggests that a younger and hotter plate was being subducted at that time. However, the Amami tonalites were probably formed from basaltic magma by fractional crystallization or by partial melting of basaltic arc crust, rather than by melting of the subducted slab.     

高炮、火箭和飞机催化扩散规律和作业设计的研究

文章基于扩散计算的解析解,提出了针对高炮、火箭和飞机等不同催化方式的点源、多线源和移动点源的数值计算方案,分别研究了不同催化方式催化剂扩散规律和有效范围,并利用卫星捕获的一次飞机播云实例检验了计算方案,同时研究了实现目标区充分催化的作业设计等问题。主要结论有:高炮做为点源催化,单个高炮作业,达到有效催化浓度的范围半径约只有0.5 km,应当采用多炮弹密集作业,比较有利于浓度和催化范围的维持,提高炮弹成核率能够很大程度地提高高炮作业效果;火箭和飞机作为线源催化,1 h内达到有效催化浓度的宽度分别为7和6.6 km,此宽度可作为多线播撒作业飞行间距设计的参考依据;飞机单线播撒达不到充分催化的要求,而耕作式播撒,在风速作用下,扩散区域会分散或重叠。根据风速大小设计的"8"字形来回播撒飞行路线,可使目标区得到充分播撒。在扩散计算方案研究基础上研发的各类催化扩散计算和作业设计软件系统,可方便准确地计算飞机、高炮和火箭实际作业时催化剂在云中扩散的范围、浓度及其随时间的演变,并可针对不同目标区进行充分播撒催化的作业设计,结果直观简明,为催化扩散计算的实际业务应用和作业设计提供了帮助。     

江南雨季地理区域及起止时间的客观确定

本文基于国家气象信息中心整编的全国1 675个台站观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料,定义了候降水指数,利用旋转正交经验函数分解(REOF)法对全国候降水的季节进程进行了诊断分析,得到了表征气候态降水逐候进程的南、北方模态及各自的时间系数,发现REOF第二模态对应降水季节进程中的江南雨季。综合考虑我国南方(31°N以南、110°E以东区域)气候态降水的候进程、降水季节进程(4-6月降水指数减去6-8月降水指数)年际变率以及雨季(4-6月降水指数)降水年际变率的一致性,客观定义了江南雨季的地理范围。利用客观划定区域内的降水指数、925hPa经向风以及西北太平洋副热带高压500hPa脊线位置3个指标,制定了判定江南雨季起止时间的方法,进而对1961-2012年江南雨季起止时间进行了客观确定,给出了江南雨季起止时间序列。本文旨在为规范江南雨季的监测提供参考和借鉴,并为其预测提供科学基础。