华北地震发生日期之间关系的讨论——纪念唐山大地震35周年

从异年倍九法（或称异年倍九律）讨论了华北7级以上大震发生日期之间的关系。这种关系对今后在类似季节预测大震的发生日期有一定的参考作用。     

Airborne measurements of the impact of ground-based glaciogenic cloud seeding on orographic precipitation

Data from in situ probes and a vertically-pointing mm-wave Doppler radar aboard a research aircraft are used to study the cloud microphysical effect of glaciogenic seeding of cold-season orographic clouds. A previous study (Geerts et al., 2010) has shown that radar reflectivity tends to be higher during seeding periods in a shallow layer above the ground downwind of ground-based silver iodide (AgI) nuclei generators. This finding is based on seven flights, conducted over a mountain in Wyoming (the Unites States), each with a no-seeding period followed by a seeding period. In order to assess this impact, geographically fixed flight tracks were flown over a target mountain, both upwind and downwind of the AgI generators. This paper examines data from the same flights for further evidence of the cloud seeding impact. Composite radar data show that the low-level reflectivity increase is best defined upwind of the mountain crest and downwind of the point where the cloud base intersects the terrain. The main argument that this increase can be attributed to AgI seeding is that it is confined to a shallow layer near the ground where the flow is turbulent. Yet during two flights when clouds were cumuliform and coherent updrafts to flight level were recorded by the radar, the seeding impact was evident in the flight-level updrafts (about 610 m above the mountain peak) as a significant increase in the ice crystal concentration in all size bins. The seeding effect appears short-lived as it is not apparent just downwind of the crest.     

人工影响天气飞机播云作业有效催化范围的模拟评估

针对人工影响天气飞机播云作业效果评估需求,提出一种基于拉格朗日粒子扩散模式FLEXPART-WRF的催化剂催化范围模拟评估方法.以典型催化剂碘化银为例,开发催化剂物理化学特性参数清单模块,结合飞机播云特点和模式源项特点,将飞机不规则线性播撒方式离散化为连续移动点源播撒方式,实现模式对飞机播云的模拟能力.通过对一次飞机播云作业的模拟试验,证实了模拟评估方法的可行性和有效性.     

基于Google Earth的虚拟城市构建方法

对以Google Earth为开发平台,利用其影像、地形数据和地标功能等,整合建筑物及相关信息构建虚拟城市的方法进行了研究。运行在Google Earth平台上的虚拟城市,支持影像数据更新和成果网络共享,能够发布各种与城市相关的信息。该方法实现了三维建筑物与地形的无缝融合,具有较高的研究价值和广阔的应用前景。     

大比例尺GIS数据更新服务框架综述

CAD数据在图形表达、存储和管理上表现非常完美,能满足现在大部分的图形绘制应用。但是,CAD数据不能很好地保存和管理与空间位置相关的属性信息,使得这种数据格式并不能很好地支持图、属兼顾的GIS应用。从现有的CAD数据转换、更新GIS数据库并不是一个简单的数据格式转换的过程,其间涉及到数据模型的转换、存储管理方式改变等众多复杂问题,其研究的进展将会直接影响到目前GIS数据更新模式、过程。本文从CAD、GIS数据特点入手,以将现有CAD数据采集自动更新到GIS数据库目标,从系统架构、功能结构和工作流程等几个方面对大比例尺GIS数据更新服务框架展开论述。     

山东冰雹形成机制及雹云催化技术模拟——个例研究

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所开发的三维全弹性冰雹云模式,对2006年7月5日山东境内一次以冰雹、雷雨大风为主的强对流过程进行模拟,分析了冰雹的形成机制。结果表明:79%左右的冰雹胚胎是霰,雹胚以霰为主,霰主要来自于冰雪晶与过冷雨水碰撞冻结以及雪的自动转换过程,霰形成后主要靠碰并过冷云水、雨水增长,而冰雹主要质量来源是霰的自动转化以及碰并过冷云水增长。人工催化试验表明:在强对流云中冰雹含量达到0.1 g·m^-3前1～4 min进行催化,能有效抑制冰雹粒子的增长,在过冷水含量中心(5.5 km)上方1.0～1.5 km催化防雹效果较好,在其下方催化防雹效果较差;剂量越大防雹效果越好。AgI主要以凝华核的作用产生人工冰晶,冰晶凝华增长导致过冷云水含量降低。催化后雹胚特别是霰胚的数量增多,对过冷云水的竞争增强,其平均尺度、质量均减小,降低了雹胚向冰雹的转化率。冰雹碰并过冷云水增长也被减弱,导致冰雹总质量进一步减少。     

Cloud Seedability Study with a Dual-Model System

In this research,a novel dual-model system,one-dimensional stratiform cold cloud model(1DSC) coupled to Weather Research and Forecast(WRF) model(WRF-1DSC for short),was employed to investigate the effects of cloud seeding by silver iodide(AgI) on rain enhancement.Driven by changing environmental conditions extracted from the WRF model,WRF-1DSC could be used to assess the cloud seeding effects quantitatively.The employment of WRF-1DSC,in place of a one-dimensional two-moment cloud seeding model applied to a three-dimensional mesoscale cloud-resolving model,was found to result in massive reduction of computational resources.Numerical experiments with WRF-1DSC were conducted for a real stratiform precipitation event observed on 4-5 July 2004,in Northeast China.A good agreement between the observed and modeled cloud system ensured the ability of WRF-1DSC to simulate the observed precipitation process efficiently.Sensitivity tests were performed with different seeding times,locations,and amounts.Experimental results showed that the optimum seeding effect(defined as the percentage of rain enhancement or rain enhancement rate) could be achieved through proper seeding at locations of maximum cloud water content when the updraft was strong.The optimum seeding effect was found to increase by 5.61% when the cloud was seeded at 5.5 km above ground level around 2300 UTC 4 July 2004,with the maximum AgI mixing ratio(X s) equaling 15 ng kg 1.On the other hand,for an overseeded cloud,a significant reduction occurred in the accumulated precipitation(-12.42%) as X s reached 100 ng kg 1.This study demonstrates the potential of WRF1DSC in determining the optimal AgI seeding strategy in practical operations of precipitation enhancement.     

飞机增雨作业物理检验方法探究及个例分析

人工增雨效果的物理检验为评估人工影响天气的效果提供物理依据,因此越来越受到关注,文章根据2009年5月1日在河北张家口的一次积层混合云降水过程的飞机人工增雨作业探测资料,尝试了从不同高度上寻找对比区,来进行作业效果的物理检验。结果表明：利用反证法思路,发现温度在-10℃时,FSSP 100ER量程1（测量范围为2~47 μm）测量的云粒子中并不全是液相的,也有一定量冰相云粒子存在;而且不同高度粒子浓度急速增大的时刻与冰相云粒子陡增的时刻是趋于一致的,观测的实际结果基本符合冷云催化原理;降雨区域面积是扩大的,某种程度上讲,作业收到了一定的效果。     

The decreasing spring frost risks during the flowering period for woody plants in temperate area of eastern China over past 50 years

The temperate monsoon area of China is an important agricultural region but late spring frosts have frequently caused significant damage to plants there. Based on phenological data derived from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network （CPON）, corresponding meteorological data from 12 study sites and phenological modeling, changes in flowering times of multiple woody plants and the frequency of frost occurrence were analyzed. Through these analyses, frost risk during the flowering period at each site was estimated. Results of these estimates suggested that first flowering dates （FFD） in the study area advanced significantly from 1963 to 2009 at an average rate of -1.52 days/decade in North-east China （P〈0.01） and -2.22 days/decade （P〈0.01） in North China. Over the same period, the number of frost days in spring decreased and the last frost days advanced across the study area. Considering both flowering phenology and occurrence of frost, the frost risk index, which measures the percentage of species exposed to frost during the flowering period in spring, exhibited a decreasing trend of -0.37% per decade （insignificant） in Northeast China and -1.80% per decade （P〈0.01） in North China, implying that frost risk has reduced over the past half century. These conclusions provide important information to agriculture and forest managers in devising frost protection schemes in the region.     

全国铀矿资源潜力评价航放数据处理与研究

全国铀矿资源潜力评价航放数据处理与研究通过对各铀成矿区带航空放射性特征分析研究,提取了与铀矿化密切相关的航放铀含量异常及高场和航放多元信息异常,总结了花岗岩型、火山岩型、碳硅泥岩型和砂岩型等4大类型铀矿的航空放射性特征及预测要素组合模式。该组合模式在铀资源潜力评价中应用效果十分显著。航放异常信息的合理组合,能有效地加强和突出与铀矿化相关的放射性异常信息及成矿环境信息,对全国铀矿资源潜力评价和铀矿普查找矿具有重要意义。