Experimental Seasonal Forecast of Monsoon 2005 Using T170L42 AGCM on PARAM Padma

As a part of the Experimental Extended Range Monsoon Prediction Experiment, ensemble mode seasonal runs for the monsoon season of 2005 were made using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), T170L42 AGCM. The seasonal runs were made using six initial atmospheric conditions based on the NCEP operational analysis and with forecast monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) of the NCEP Coupled forecast system (CFS). These simulations were carried out on the PARAM Padma supercomputer of Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), India. The model climatology was prepared by integrating the model for ten years using climatological SST as the lower boundary. The climatology of the model compares well with the observed, in terms of the spatial distribution of rainfall over the Indian land mass. The model-simulated rainfall compares well with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates for the 2005 monsoon season. Compared to the model climatology (7.81 mm/day), the model had simulated a normal rainfall (7.75 mm/day) for the year 2005 which is in agreement with the observations (99% of long-term mean). However, the model could not capture the observed increase in September rainfall from that of a low value in August 2005. The circulation patterns simulated by the model are also comparable to the observed patterns. The ensemble mean onset is found to be nearer to the observed onset date within one pentad.     

杭州湾南北两岸岸线变迁遥感动态调查

以多时相遥感资料为基础,利用遥感数据的时间和空间特点,对杭州湾南北两岸的岸线进行了遥感调查,查明了岸线变迁规律及影响因素,为杭州湾合理开发、管理和保护提供了依据。     

青藏高原加热与亚洲环流季节变化和夏季风爆发

利用逐日NCEP/NCAR再分析资料分析了春夏过渡季节青减高原非绝热加热和大气环流季节变化以及亚洲季风爆发的关系.结果表明,过渡季节的早期(5月中旬以前)青藏高原总非绝热加热与感热加热的时间演变曲线趋势一致,感热加热在过渡季节早期的环流演变中有很重要的作用.青藏高原非绝热加热的时间演变与北半球环流的季节变化和亚洲夏季风爆发有很好的相关.在过渡季节里,青藏高原非绝热加热的变化引起了海-陆热力差异对比的变化,给亚洲夏季风的爆发建立了有利的背景环境,对亚洲夏季风爆发有明显的影响.结果还表明,用各区域纬向风垂直差异的时空分布能更准确地表示季节变化的区域差异.     

宁波市气候变化对水资源的影响

通过对宁波市水资源有关参数的计算，了解宁波水资源状况，根据工农业和生活用水，经济发展规划对水资源的需求，分析了宁波市气候和气候变化对水资源的影响，为更好地促进水资源向可利用水资源的转化，利用和开发好水资源提出了建议。     

REMOTE SENSING OF THE SEASONAL VARIATION IN COLUMN ABUNDANCE OF ATMOSPHERIC CH4*

Infrared solar spectra on clear days were measured automatically by an infrared solar spectrometer(ISS) with 0.4 cm^-1 resolution developed by us.A line-by line(LBL) computation method was used to calculate theoretical atmospheric absorption.In the wavelength range of 3.410-3.438 μm.the absorption is mainly due to atmospheric methane and water vapor.Columnatmospheric methane was retrieved from the recorded infrared solar spectra.The seasonal variation of column atmospheric methane in Hefei has been obtained from the measuremental data of nearly 18 months since the April of 1997.and found that it is similar to that of background data.The instruments.principles of measurement and some of results were introduced,and the results are also discussed briefly in the paper.     

柴达木盆地第四纪古气候变化在物理测井自然伽玛曲线上的记录

利用物理测井曲线分析古气候变化，是近年发展起来的新领域。本文在对取芯井涩中6井多种气候指标分析的基础上，建立了涩中6井GR曲线古气候反演模式，将该模式引进到盆地东部唯一贯穿第四纪的钻孔---达参1井，利用该井高分辨率自然伽玛曲线建立了盆地东部地区2.85Ma以来的时间标尺，据此讨论盆地东部地区2.85Ma以来的古气候变化，表明盆地气候变化在大阶段上明显受到天文轨道周期的控制，但也具有明显的区域性特征。此外还与盆地西部大浪滩ZK-336孔进行了对比。表明柴达木盆地同时包含了高原隆升与全球性气候变化的信息，是古环境变迁的良好的信息载体。也证明了自然伽玛曲线是反映内陆干旱盆地气候与环境变化良好的代用指标。     

塔里木盆地南缘沉积物磁化率变化与历史时期环境演化

磁化率作为一种重要的环境指标，在恢复气候环境演变方面得到了较为广泛的应用。本研究表明，塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘沉积物的低频磁化率对于本地区环境的演变反映较为敏感，因此本文以低频磁化率为主导指标，结合其它地质记录，对尼雅地区的古气候环境进行了恢复，研究结果表明：近4000年来尼雅地区的气候环境以干旱化为主，但期间仍有几次相对干湿的波动，共经历了3次相对湿润期和3次相对干旱期。据此恢复出的古气候环境与其它环境指标恢复出的结果具有较好的吻合性，不仅具有鲜明的区域性特征，同时也具全球性的一致性。     

中国西北地区季节性积雪的性质与结构

中国内陆地区积雪分布十分广泛。根据西北地区大陆性气候条件下形成的“干寒型”积雪的特征 ,对中国天山和阿尔泰山山区的季节性积雪进行了观测与分析。结果表明 ,该区最大积雪深度达 15 2cm(1997) ,积雪层一般由新雪 (或表层凝结霜 )、细粒雪、中粒雪、粗粒雪、松散深霜、聚合深霜层和薄融冻冰层组成。与“湿暖型”积雪相比 ,“干寒型”积雪的性质具有密度小 (新雪的最小密度为 0 .0 4 g/cm3 )、含水率少 (隆冬期 <1% )、温度梯度大(最大可达 - 0 .5 2℃ /cm)、深霜发育层厚等特点 ,并且变质作用以热量交换和雪层压力变质作用为主。据中国科学院天山积雪与雪崩研究站 (43°2 0N ,84°2 9E ,海拔 1776m)的观测资料 ,中国内陆干旱区冬季积雪期雪面太阳辐射通量以负平衡为主 ,新雪雪面反射率达 96 % ,短波辐射在干寒型积雪中的穿透厚度达 2 8cm。春季积雪消融期 ,深霜层厚度可占整个积雪层厚度的 80 %。随着气温的升高 ,雪粒间的键链首先融化 ,使积雪变得松散 ,内聚力、抗压、抗拉和抗剪强度降低 ,积雪含水率也随之增大 ,整个积雪层趋于接近 0℃的等温现象 ,因此 ,春季天山、阿尔泰山等山地全层性湿雪崩频繁发生     

Building Temporal Topology in a GIS Database to Study the Land‐Use Changes in a Rural‐Urban Environment

This article addresses the issue of linking temporal and spatial information into a GIS database structure to investigate the land‐use changes in a rural‐urban region over a thirty‐five‐year period. More specifically, it describes the application of a programming package developed to build temporal topology in an historical land‐use GIS database to efficiently perform spatiotemporal queries. The program was created within the MapInfo environment using MapBasic language. Different types of information, such as the rate of change, the relationship between the change of land use and zoning regulations, and land‐use succession were extracted from the database. A user‐friendly interface was also developed to easily address spatiotemporal queries to the database. This approach represents a flexible and performing tool for scientists and planners who need to efficiently capture essential spatiotemporal information required for geographical inquiry and decision‐making.