Variation characteristics of evaporation in the Gulang River Basin during 1959-2013

Based on monthly evaporation of two meteorological stations in the Gulang River Basin of China, the inter-annual variation of evaporation during 1959-2013 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis. The results demonstrated that the annual evaporation show a fluctuating increase over the past 50 years approximately, with an average increase rate of 4.26 mm per decade. The overall trend was decrease-increase-decrease. According to the cumulative anomaly curve,the turning point of the annual evaporation occurred in 1979, in which the evaporation increased in the early stage and decreased in the later stage. Meanwhile, the seasonal variation of the evaporation shows that it decreased in Spring and Autumn, and increased in Summer and Winter, especially obvious for the later. The evaporation abruptly changed in Spring and Summer in 2008 and in Winter in 1994. In addition, all evaporation increased after the changes. However,the evaporation in Autumn abruptly changed in 1986 and 1999, which show a trend of increase-decrease-increase.Wavelet analysis shows that evaporation in Summer and wet season would decrease in the next few years, and in the other seasons would increase. Based on the aforementioned analysis, it can be concluded that increased evaporation is mainly induced by increase of evaporation in dry season, especially in Winter, and this trend to be continued in the future for the Gulang River Basin.     

Supply and Demand Levels for Livestock and Poultry Products in the Chinese Mainland and the Potential Demand for Feed Grains

The widening gap between the supply and demand levels for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland poses a significant challenge to the secure supply of feed grains. Therefore, the accurate prediction of the demand potential for feed grains represents a key scientific issue for ensuring food security in the Chinese mainland. This study is based on an analysis of several factors, such as the Chinese mainland’s output, trade volume, apparent consumption of livestock and poultry products, and two different scenarios for predicting the future demand for feed grains are assessed. The results indicate that output and consumption of livestock and poultry products, as well as the country’s trade deficit and the pressure of the supply and demand balance with respect to these products, have been increasing in recent years. The analysis predicts that the demand for feed grains in the Chinese mainland will reach 425.5 or 389.6 million tons in 2030 based on the two scenarios. This finding indicates that with the increasing demand for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland, the demand for feed grains will continue to increase, and the shortfall in feed grains and raw materials will expand further, especially dependence on external sources of protein-rich feed grains will remain high.     

强人类活动驱动下珠江磨刀门河口径潮动力的季节性异变特征

人类活动对河口环境影响巨大,揭示在强人类活动驱动下河口径潮动力非线性相互作用的异变特征,有利于了解人类活动影响河口动力地貌的机制,对河口区水利工程建设及环境保护等具有重要指导意义。基于1960—2016年珠江磨刀门河口沿程潮位站(甘竹、竹银、灯笼山、三灶)的逐月高、低潮位数据及马口水文站的月均流量数据,统计分析了磨刀门河口在强人类活动驱动下月均水位、潮波振幅及其空间梯度(即月均水位坡度和潮波振幅衰减率)的季节性异变特征。结果表明,1990年和2000年为磨刀门河口径潮动力的异变年份, 1990年前为自然演变阶段, 2000年后为恢复调整阶段,1990—2000年为过渡阶段;高强度采砂导致的河床下切使磨刀门河口月均水位及月均水位坡度显著减小,夏季减小幅度最为明显,沿程平均分别减小0.53m和8.93×10~(-6);月均水位坡度减小导致潮波衰减效应减弱,进而使沿程潮波振幅增大,多年平均增大0.071m;磨刀门河口径潮动力相互作用具有明显的季节性差异,夏季月均水位坡度随流量增大在上游抬升明显,冬季月均水位坡度在上游显著减小,但在下游略有抬升;随着流量的增大潮波振幅的衰减作用增强,但当流量超过阈值20000m~3/s时,月均水位坡度引起的底床摩擦增大效应不足以抵消横截面积辐散效应,潮波衰减效应略有减弱。     

吕宋和台湾岛以东黑潮季节与年际变化规律的对比分析

黑潮是北太平洋副热带环流系统的一支重要的西边界流。前人对不同流段黑潮的季节和年际变化进行了诸多研究,然而基于不同数据所得结论仍存在差异,尤其是不同模式计算所得流量差别很大,而且以往研究往往着眼于某一流段,对不同流段黑潮变化之间的异同及其原因涉及较少。本文基于卫星高度计数据,评估了OFES(Ocean generalcir culation model For the Earth Simulator)和HYCOM(Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model)两个模式对吕宋岛和台湾岛以东黑潮季节与年际变化的模拟能力,进而对两个海域黑潮变化的异同及其物理机制进行了分析。结果表明:HYCOM模式对黑潮季节变化的模拟较好,而OFES模式对黑潮年际变化的模拟较好。吕宋岛以东黑潮和台湾岛以东黑潮在季节与年际尺度上的变化规律均不相同,且受不同动力过程控制。吕宋岛以东黑潮呈现冬春季强而秋季弱的变化规律,主要受北赤道流分叉南北移动的影响;而台湾岛以东黑潮呈现夏季强冬季弱的变化特点,主要受该海区反气旋涡与气旋涡相对数目的季节变化影响。在年际尺度上,吕宋岛以东黑潮与北赤道流分叉及风应力旋度呈负相关,当风应力旋度超前于流量4个月时相关系数达到了-0.56;而台湾岛以东黑潮的流量变化则受制于副热带逆流区涡动能的变化,且滞后于涡动能9个月时达到最大正相关,相关系数为0.44。本研究对于深入理解不同流段黑潮的多尺度变异规律及其对邻近海区环流与气候的影响具有重要意义,同时对于黑潮研究的数值模式选取具有重要参考价值。     

孟加拉湾及其毗邻海域中尺度涡旋活动的冬、夏季差异

基于1993—2017年从卫星高度计资料中识别出来的中尺度涡轨迹数据集,对冬、夏季孟加拉湾涡旋的源地和性质进行了研究。研究表明孟加拉湾西部、安达曼海和孟加拉湾通往赤道的出口处的中尺度涡旋活动呈现显著的季节性差异。安达曼海在冬、夏季从北往南中尺度涡旋分别以“反气旋涡-气旋涡-反气旋涡”和“气旋涡-反气旋涡-气旋涡”的格局分布。不同源区涡旋的季节性生长过程有明显差异。孟加拉湾西部的涡旋在夏季生长迅速但消散缓慢,斯里兰卡冷涡生长缓慢但消散迅速。不同源区涡旋半径和振幅大小有不同的特征。孟加拉湾西部,无论冬、夏季,反气旋涡的振幅、半径都比气旋涡大;夏季季风漂流区,气旋涡半径比反气旋涡小但是振幅比反气旋涡大;安达曼海内无论冬、夏季都是最北侧聚集区涡旋的半径和振幅最大。孟加拉湾内生命史为30~40 d的涡旋数量最多,生命史在100 d以上的涡旋主要分布在孟加拉湾西部。     

Dynamics of coastline changes in Mexico

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The goal of our work was to locate and quantify changes that occurred in 66% of the Mexican coastline, based on four land cover maps generated by the Mexican...     

How changes of groundwater level affect the desert riparian forest ecosystem in the Ejina Oasis,Northwest China

Groundwater is a key factor controlling the growth of vegetation in desert riparian systems. It is important to recognise how groundwater changes affect the riparian forest ecosystem. This information will not only help us to understand the ecological and hydrological process of the riparian forest but also provide support for ecological recovery of riparian forests and water-resources management of arid inland river basins. This study aims to estimate the suitability of the Water Vegetation Energy and Solute Modelling(WAVES) model to simulate the Ejina Desert riparian forest ecosystem changes,China, to assess effects of groundwater-depth change on the canopy leaf area index(LAI) and water budgets, and to ascertain the suitable groundwater depth for preserving the stability and structure of desert riparian forest. Results demonstrated that the WAVES model can simulate changes to ecological and hydrological processes. The annual mean water consumption of a Tamarix chinensis riparian forest was less than that of a Populus euphratica riparian forest, and the canopy LAI of the desert riparian forest should increase as groundwater depth decreases. Groundwater changes could significantly influence water budgets for T. chinensis and P. euphratica riparian forests and show the positive and negative effects on vegetation growth and water budgets of riparian forests. Maintaining the annual mean groundwater depth at around 1.7-2.7 m is critical for healthy riparian forest growth. This study highlights the importance of considering groundwater-change impacts on desert riparian vegetation and water-balance applications in ecological restoration and efficient water-resource management in the Heihe River Basin.     

卡里马塔海峡水体交换的季节变化

Four trawl-resistant bottom mounts, with acoustic Doppler current profilers(ADCPs) embedded, were deployed in the Karimata Strait from November 2008 to June 2015 as part of the South China Sea-Indonesian Seas Transport/Exchange and Impact on Seasonal Fish Migration(SITE) Program, to estimate the volume and property transport between the South China Sea and Indonesian seas via the strait. The observed current data reveal that the volume transport through the Karimata Strait exhibits significant seasonal variation. The winteraveraged(from December to February) transport is –1.99 Sv(1 Sv=1×10~6 m~3/s), while in the boreal summer(from June to August), the average transport is 0.69 Sv. Moreover, the average transport from January 2009 to December2014 is –0.74 Sv(the positive/negative value indicates northward/southward transport). May and September are the transition period. In May, the currents in the Karimata Strait turn northward, consistent with the local monsoon. In September, the southeasterly trade wind is still present over the strait, driving surface water northward, whereas the bottom flow reverses direction, possibly because of the pressure gradient across the strait from north to south.     

FIO-ESM气候模式北太平洋海表温度和降水的季节性预报技巧评估

The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.     

青藏高原月NDVI时空动态变化及其对气候变化的 响应

青藏高原脆弱的高寒植被对外界干扰十分敏感,使其成为研究植被对气候变化响应的理想区域之一。青藏高原气候变化剧烈,在较短的合成时间研究气候变化对植被的影响十分必要。因此,本文利用GIMMS NDVI时间序列数据集,研究了1982-2012年青藏高原生长季月尺度植被生长的时空动态变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量和日照时数等气候因子的响应关系。结果表明：在区域尺度上,除8月外,其他各月份植被均呈增加趋势,显著增加多发生在4-7月和9月;大部分月份的NDVI增加速率随着时段的延长显著减小,表明NDVI增加趋势放缓;在像元尺度上,月NDVI显著变化的区域多呈增加趋势,但显著减少范围的扩张多快于显著增加。4月和7月植被生长主要是受气温和日照时数共同作用,6月和9月受气温的控制,而8月则主要受降水量的影响。长时间序列NDVI数据集的出现为采用嵌套时段研究植被生长变化趋势奠定了前提,而植被活动变化趋势的持续性则有助于形象表征植被活动变化过程、深入理解植被对气候变化的响应和预测植被未来生长变化趋势。由此推测,青藏高原月NDVI未来增加趋势总体上趋于缓和,但在像元尺度显著变化的区域趋于增加。