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31.
Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.
Key policy insights
For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.
The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.
Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.
32.
There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least. 相似文献
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34.
Ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios of land use change in Qihe catchment,China 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Regional land use change is the main cause of the ecosystem carbon storage changes by affecting emission and sink process.However,there has been little research on the influence of land use changes for ecosystem carbon storage at both temporal and spatial scales.For this study,the Qihe catchment in the southern part of the Taihang Mountains was taken as an example;its land use change from 2005 to 2015 was analyzed,the Markov-CLUE-S composite model was used to predict land use patterns in 2025 under natural growth,cultivated land protection and ecological conservation scenario,and the land use data were used to evaluate ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios for the recent 10-year interval and the future based on the carbon storage module of the In VEST model.The results show the following:(1) the ecosystem carbon storage and average carbon density of Qihe catchment were 3.16×107 t and 141.9 t/ha,respectively,and decreased by 0.07×107 t and 2.89 t/ha in the decade evaluated.(2) During 2005–2015,carbon density mainly decreased in low altitude areas.For high altitude area,regions with increased carbon density comprised a similar percentage to regions with decreased carbon density.The significant increase of the construction areas in the middle and lower reaches of Qihe and the degradation of upper reach woodland were core reasons for carbon density decrease.(3) For 2015–2025,under natural growth scenario,carbon storage and carbon density also significantly decrease,mainly due to the decrease of carbon sequestration capacity in low altitude areas;under cultivated land protection scenario,the decrease of carbon storage and carbon density will slow down,mainly due to the increase of carbon sequestration capacity in low altitude areas;under ecological conservation scenario,carbon storage and carbon density significantly increase and reach 3.19×107 t and 143.26 t/ha,respectively,mainly in regions above 1100 m in altitude.Ecological conservation scenario can enhance carbon sequestration capacity but cannot effectively control the reduction of cultivated land areas.Thus,land use planning of research areas should consider both ecological conservation and cultivated land protection scenarios to increase carbon sink and ensure the cultivated land quality and food safety. 相似文献
35.
The paper is focused on the analysis of the drift of tabular iceberg observed in 2009 in the marginal ice zone of the North-West Barents Sea. Momentum balance equations are derived from the Kirchhoff equations describing plane motion of solid body in an ideal fluid. Field works performed on the drift iceberg and on the drift icenear the iceberg are described. Results of the field works and numerical simulations of the iceberg drift and rotation are performed and discussed. It is shown that acceleration of water flow around the iceberg has visible influence on the iceberg drift. Kinetic energy balance of drift iceberg is used to estimate the forces applied to the iceberg by the drift ice. 相似文献
36.
早新生代是地质史上最后一个温室气候期,随后南极冰盖形成,地球进入到晚新生代冰期。温室气候的成因和冰期气候转型的机制一直是国际相关学界关注的问题。评述国际上对此开展的古气候模拟,反映了早新生代温室气候受到了海洋和大陆的地理位置、暖海洋温盐环流和海洋热输送、太阳辐射和大气CO2浓度变化的作用和影响。古气候模拟还反映了早新生代温室气候转向冰期气候,受到了大洋通道改变和高原构造隆起、大气成分变化以及海陆生态系相互的作用和反馈。这些古气候模拟试验锁定在气候变化的关键时段和重要驱动因子,对测试地球内外驱动力和地球各圈层反馈作用提供了重要的科学依据;温室气候以及趋向冰期气候的模拟研究对探讨气候变化内在机制、预测未来气候具有重要意义。
相似文献
37.
38.
Numerical modeling investigation on turbulent oscillatory flow over a plane rough bed composed by randomly arrayed particles 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A three-dimensional numerical model is established to simulate the turbulent oscillatory boundary layer over a fixed and rough bed composed by randomly arrayed solid spheres based on the lattice Boltzmann method and the large eddy simulation model.The equivalent roughness height,the location of the theoretical bed and the time variation of the friction velocity are investigated using the log-fit method.The time series of turbulent intensity and Reynolds stress are also investigated.The equivalent roughness height of cases with Reynolds numbers of 1×10~4–6×10~4 is approximately 2.81 d(grain size).The time variation of the friction velocity in an oscillatory cycle exhibits sinusoidal-like behavior.The friction factor depends on the relative roughness in the rough turbulent regime,and the pattern of solid particles arrayed as the rough bed in the numerical simulations has no obvious effect on the friction factor. 相似文献
39.
40.
H. Kit Miyamoto Amir S. J. Gilani Akira Wada Christopher Ariyaratana 《地震工程与结构动力学》2010,39(11):1279-1297
Fluid viscous dampers are used to control story drifts and member forces in structures during earthquake events. These elements provide satisfactory performance at the design‐level or maximum considered earthquake. However, buildings using fluid viscous dampers have not been subjected to very large earthquakes with intensities greater than the design and maximum considered events. Furthermore, an extensive database of viscous damper performance during large seismic events does not exist. To address these issues, a comprehensive analytical and experimental investigation was conducted to determine the performance of damped structures subjected to large earthquakes. A critical component of this research was the development and verification of a detailed viscous damper mathematical model that incorporates limit states. The development of this model and the laboratory and simulation results conclude good correlation with the new model and the damper limit states and provide superior results compared with the typical damper model when considering near collapse evaluation of structures. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献