基于复合方法的天水盆地宽频带地震动模拟

本文采用有限差分和随机振动合成结合的复合方法,模拟了当礼县—罗家堡断裂发生矩震级Mw7.7级大地震时,在天水盆地产生的宽频带地震动场,分析了在设定地震条件下盆地内的地震动分布特征,为该区黄土地震滑坡分析提供了地震动参数结果。结果显示:(1)有限差分法和随机振动合成法可以很好地互补,得到盆地内地表宽频带地震动;(2)地震在盆地区域产生了强烈地震动,PGA(峰值加速度)介于150~900 gal,离断层较近的区域东南角的PGA最大,随着断层距的增加,PGA逐渐减小。河谷南侧的PGA值相比北侧较大,具备诱发滑坡的强大动力条件;(3)盆地区域PGV(峰值速度)最大为120 cm/s。受第四系覆盖层放大效应和地形放大效应共同影响,水平向地震动在盆地区域东侧和中部具有较大PGV,而西侧PGV相对较小。竖向地震动在盆地区域东侧较弱,而在中部和西侧较强,特别是最西侧陡峭的山坡上,PGV达到了最大值。此外,竖向地震动明显受到覆盖层厚度的影响,譬如在盆地区域南侧的中间部位,也具有较大的PGV。     

欧盟碳减排目标的经济可能性评估

经济发展与能源消耗有着密切的关系,文章通过选取1994年至2009年欧盟27国的人口、经济和能源数据,利用碳排放动力学模型对欧盟关于2050年前削减温室气体排放80-95%的承诺进行预测,并对欧盟目标下的减排情景进行了分析。结果表明：（1）以当前的技术进步速率下,沿最优平稳经济增长路线,到2050年欧盟的碳排放量将为775.608MtC,达不到预定的减排要求;（2）在最优经济增长速度得出总能源消费量的基础上,采用调整能源结构与碳捕捉技术,预期可以达到设定减排80%的任务。其每一期的煤炭占比、石油占比、天然气占比应分别有4%、2.26%、1.23%转移至非碳能源占比,非碳能源的上升速率应达到2.21%/年;（3）若以历史的能源结构转移趋势预测未来的能源结构占比,即使考虑能源利用效率和碳捕捉技术的预期目标,欧盟仍然达不到在2050年的减排目标;（4）考虑欧盟提出的四种减排路径上下限组合,可预计出到2050年欧盟的减排范围在80.51%-87.16%;（5）若欧盟重振工业（特别是制造业）,即使考虑欧盟制定的减排路径,仍存在着达不到减排预期的可能。     

Reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulent mixing: a one-dimensional-turbulence study

We study the problem of reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence in the Boussinesq framework using one-dimensional-turbulence (ODT) simulations. In this problem a reaction zone between overlying heavy/cold reactants and underlying light/hot products moves against gravity. First, we show that ODT results for global quantities in non-reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence are within those from direct numerical simulations (DNS). This comparison give us confidence in using ODT to study unexplored flow regimes in the reactive case. Then, we show how ODT predicts an early stage of reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence that behaves similarly to the non-reactive case, as observed in previous DNS. More importantly, ODT indicates a later stage where the growth of the reaction zone reduces considerably. The present work can be seen as a step towards the study of supernova flames with ODT.     

Stochastic time-series simulation of wave parameters using ship observations

A stochastic simulation technique was used with ship wave observations, which form the largest world-wide data base of wave information. Twenty years of wave parameter (height, period, and direction) observations from the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) were used as the input data. Simulations were compared to four years of wave parameters from a National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) data buoy near Monterey Bay, CA. The comparisons are satisfactory with differences mainly caused by biases between ship observations and buoy data. The stochastic simulation technique is attractive because it is computationally efficient and few decisions are required for its application. The applied techniques can be employed with global COADS data to simulate wave conditions at many world-wide locations where measurements and hindcasts by computer models do not exist.     

Changes in Seasonality in China under Enhanced Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Seasonality changes in China under elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were simulated using nine global climate models,assuming a 1% per year increase in atmospheric CO 2.Simulations of 20th century experiments of season changes in China from the periods 1961 80 to 1981 2000 were also assessed using the same models.The results show that the ensemble mean simulation of the nine models performs better than that of an individual model simulation.Compared the mean climatology of the last 20 years in the CO 2-quadrupling experiments with that in the CO 2-doubling ones,the ensemble mean results show that the hottest/coldest continuous-90-day (local summer/winter) mean temperature increased by 3.4/4.5°C,2.7/2.9°C,and 2.9/4.1°C in Northeast (NE),Southwest (SW),and Southeast (SE) China,respectively,indicating a weakening seasonal amplitude (SA),but by 4.4/4.0°C in Northwest (NW) China,indicating an enlarging SA.The local summer lengthened by 37/30/66/54 days in NW,NE,SW,and SE China,respectively.In some models,the winter disappeared during the CO 2-quadrupling period,judging by the threshold based on the CO 2-doubling period.The average of the other model simulations show that the local winter shortened by 42/36/61/44 days respectively,in the previously mentioned regions.     

基于SD和CLUE-S模型的张掖市甘州区土地利用情景分析

近年来,学者们基于不同研究需要开发了很多土地利用变化/覆盖(LUCC)模型.但迄今没有一个单独的模型可在不同时空尺度上揭示所有土地利用变化的关键过程.本文尝试开发一种集成SD模型与CLUE-S模型的建模方法,用以弥补已有LUCC模型缺陷,并将其应用于张掖市甘州区的土地利用情景分析中,得到的LUCC模拟结果可为该区土地利...     

MCS-based probabilistic design of embedded sheet pile walls

A probabilistic approach to the design of embedded sheet pile walls is developed in this paper. The approach is based on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), and it is used to investigate the performance of the partial factors and different design approaches in Eurocode 7 in achieving the target degrees of reliability. The approach is illustrated through an embedded sheet pile wall design example that has been used in literature for the evaluation of Eurocode 7. The approach deals rationally with the correlated load and resistance, and it bypasses a difficult but frequently asked question in Eurocode 7 (i.e. should the passive earth pressure be considered as a load (i.e. action) or a resistance?). The probabilistic design approach (DA) is also used to explore the effects of the soil unit weight variability and uncertainties in over-digging depth and wall friction. The effects of uncertainties in over-digging depth and wall friction are found to be significant. It is also found that, although the soil unit weight variability is generally minor, its effect on the design of embedded sheet pile walls is significant and should be properly accounted for in the design. The MCS-based probabilistic DA proposed in this study provides a straightforward way for proper consideration of such variability with relative ease.     

Paleoenvironment reconstructions and climate simulations of the Early Triassic: Impact of the water and sediment supply on the preservation of fluvial systems

Paleoenvironmental reconstructions and climatic modelling allow us to investigate the influence of water and sediment supply on the preservation of fluvial systems within a given geodynamic context. To simulate climate, we need global-scale paleoenvironmental and paleotopographic reconstructions. However, the present study only covers the West-Tethys domain, where sedimentological and stratigraphic data allow us to check climate simulation results against geological data. We focus our modelling on the Olenekian, with the aim of characterizing the impact of climate on fluvial sedimentation in the West-Tethys domain. The climatic simulations show that paleoclimates differ between Western Europe and North Africa. A more humid climate is simulated over North Africa, whereas a rather arid climate prevails over Western Europe. In Western Europe, the sediments are preserved for the most part in endoreic basins and the presence of rivers in an arid environment suggests that these rivers are mainly fed by precipitation falling on the North Africa Variscan Mountains. In North Africa, sedimentation is exclusively preserved in exoreic basins (coastal plain sediments). Consequently, the lack of preserved fluvial systems in endoreic basins in North Africa either could be due to a shortage of accommodation space in this area, or is linked to the climatic conditions that controlled the water and sediment supply.     

2050年前长江流域地表水资源变化趋势

利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式预估2001-2050年长江流域不同排放情景（SRES-A2,A1B,B1）下径流深的变化,分析了长江流域地表水资源量的时空变化特征。结果表明：3种排放情景下长江流域多年平均地表水资源量相差不大,但不同排放情景下年际变化特征较为复杂,且变化趋势有所不同。其中,A2高排放情景下地表水资源量呈缓慢减小的趋势,A1B中等排放情景下变化趋势不明显,B1低排放情景下呈相对最为显著的增加趋势。地表水资源量年代际变化波动幅度也较大,2001-2030年3种情景下地表水资源量总体呈现下降特征,但从2030年起,则均表现出不同程度的增加,最高增幅达7.47%,其中尤以夏季和冬季增加显著。模式预估长江流域未来水资源量仍保持目前水平,水资源空间分布不均匀特征仍较为突出。