1987年8月2日江西省寻乌MS5.5级地震的震害与烈度分布

从寻乌5.5级地震的地震地质构造背景，宏观震害考察结果。结合近场强地面运动观测中几次较大地震的加速度峰值。分析宏观烈度分布特征。认为烈度分布特征除了受构造控制外，还与地形，地基土质条件有关，极震区长轴方向显示鸡笼嶂-寻乌-八尺北西向断裂是寻乌地震的主要发震断层，发震构造受控于华南块体构造应力场，发震区处于北北东向河源-邵武断裂中段和东西向断裂交汇部位。     

To afforest the desert with the technology of peat composed of rotten mosses and the sustainable development of the oases

Only by providing the good conditions for the growth of plants can a favorable ecologicalenvironment on which human beings rely for existence be created. The upside-down-T dou-ble-layer water-conserving afforestation way is developed according to the situation of the short-age of water resources, low soil fertility and vast land in the arid areas. The characteristics of theafforestation way are to change the microenvironment in the root area of the plants, provide thefavorable conditions for the growth of plants, and reduce the necessary conditions for the growth ofplants in large areas in the arid regions. Meanwhile, the size of its water-conserving layer can bechanged according to the size of the planted trees. The different ways of the bottom wa-ter-conserving layer can be used according to the requirements. The afforestation way is suitablefor planting trees on a small scale and also for afforesting on a large scale under the adverse cir-cumstances in the arid areas, and has been effectively used in the afforestation in the hinterland ofTaklamakan Desert and the southern marginal zone of Gurbantonggut Desert. The prospects ofthe afforestation way are broad in afforestation and desertification control in the desert regions.     

Validation through HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification effects from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in Northern Italy

An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates.     

The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.     

Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley

To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance.     

Optimal placement of dampers and actuators based on stochastic approach

A general method is developed for optimal application of dampers and actuators by installing them at optimal location on seismic-resistant structures. The study includes development of a statistical criterion, formulation of a general optimization problem and establishment of a solution procedure. Numerical analysis of the seismic response in time-history of controlled structures is used to verify the proposed method for optimal device application and to demonstrate the effectiveness of seismic response control with optimal device location. This study shows that the proposed method for the optimal device application is simple and general, and that the optimally applied dampers and actuators are very efficient for seismic response reduction.     

结构振动控制的半主动磁流变质量驱动器(MR-AMD)

本文首先提出了一种新型的半主动磁流变质量驱动器（MR－AMD），该装置用磁流变驱动器替代AMD的液压驱动系统；其次采用所提出的半主动控制算法仿真分析了MR－AMD用于结构振动控制的有效性；第三，比较了半主动质量驱动器（MR－AMD）、调谐质量阻尼器（TMD）及主动质量驱动器（AMD）对同一模型结构的控制效果。分析结果表明，MR－AMD作为一种半主动质量驱动器有效地降低了结构的反应，其控制效果虽然不如具有相同质量块参数的AMD但却优于TMD，且同AMD一样具有较宽的有效频带范围。     

海洋平台结构振动的AMD主动控制参数优化分析

本文针对海洋平台结构的冰激振动和地震反应控制问题，提出了采用AMD主动控制的控制策略，结合JZ20－2MUQ平台结构进行了AMD控制系统的硬参数和软参数的优化分析，并就相应于最优参数下的AMD控制海洋平台结构冰激振动和地震反应的几种代表性工况进行了时程分析，得到了一些定性和定量的结论，为实际工程的控制设计提供了基础。本文提出的AMD主动控制方法对类似的海洋平台结构的控制问题也有参考价值。     

Evaluation of the seismic hazard of Lebanon

This paper presents the results of a study undertaken todetermine the seismic hazard of Lebanon. The seismic hazard evaluation wasconducted using probabilistic methods of hazard analysis. Potential sourcesof seismic activities that affect Lebanon were identified and the earthquakerecurrence relationships of these sources were developed from instrumentalseismology data, historical records, and earlier studies undertaken toevaluate the seismic hazard of neighboring countries. The sensitivityof the results to different assumptions regarding the seismic sources in theLebanese segment and choice of the attenuation relationship wasevaluated. Maps of peak ground acceleration contours, based on 10percent of probability of exceedance in 50 years and 100 years time spans,were developed.