甘肃省庄浪县下寨村滑坡—堰塞湖链式灾害特征与滑坡稳定性分析

2020年汛期以来庄浪县降雨量超过历年平均值的11.5%,8月31日9时庄浪县郑河乡下寨村老滑坡整体复活滑动,滑坡长355.0 m,宽220.0 m,面积83 668.0 m²,厚度12.0～20.0 m,体积约130.0×10⁴m³,堆积体堵塞窑家河及支沟形成2处小型堰塞湖。本次调查运用工程地质调绘、无人机航测、工程地质勘查等技术手段进行了系统的分析,在获取了相关数据基础上,利用无人机航测高清影像比对和SlopeLE软件计算对滑坡稳定性进行了综合判定。通过2020年8月和2021年8月航测高清影像对比,滑坡前缘变形迹象极为明显,稳定性差。SlopeLE软件计算可知,滑坡自重工况下处于基本稳定状态,降雨工况处于欠稳定状态,地震工况处于不稳定状态。计算结果与航测比对数据基本吻合,在不利工况下极易发生滑动,存在再次堵塞河道形成堰塞湖的可能。     

国土空间管控的方法与途径

国土空间管控是对国土空间各类开发保护活动的科学谋划与管理安排,是进行国土空间宏观调控和微观管理的重要政策工具。探讨以地域功能和资源环境承载力为科学基点的国土空间管控体系框架,并以福建省和贵州省六盘水市为例,解析“三区三线”协同划定和国土开发强度并测算两个国土空间管控中技术难点的解决方法,在此基础上,提出以功能管控和参数管控为核心的多尺度、多时序国土空间管控途径。研究发现：① 功能管控以主体功能区划和“三区三线”划定方案为基础,按照四类主体功能定位、三类空间（生态、农业和城镇空间）、六类分区（生态保护红线及一般生态区、永久基本农田及一般农业区、城镇开发边界及城镇预留区）以及N类建设和非建设类用途分层级实施;② 参数管控则以国土开发强度为关键目标参数,实施基于总量-目标和过程-增幅双控的阈值管控,以及基于上限和下限双控的分类型管控途径,旨在实现各类空间内和区域整体的生产、生活、生态“三生”结构均衡协调,促进形成高质量、可持续的国土空间开发保护格局。     

中国大陆科学钻探主孔榴辉岩中石榴石和绿辉石原位激光探针分析及其成岩成矿指示意义

本文以中国大陆科学钻探主孔0～2000m岩芯中的榴辉岩为对象,运用EMPA和LA-ICP-MS技术,系统测定了榴辉岩中石榴石和绿辉石的主量与微量元素组成,并据此讨论了它们的成岩成矿意义.研究结果表明,CCSD主孔榴辉岩中石榴石富重稀土和Sc、Y、Co,而绿辉石则富中稀土和Pb、Sr、V,石榴石和绿辉石的高场强元素(特别是Nb、Ta)含量均很低.石榴石存在不同程度的Ce负异常,指示榴辉岩的形成过程中卷入有地表氧化条件下形成的风化沉积物.石榴石具有低的Zr/Y比值,绿辉石普遍具有高的Sr含量,这些特征说明榴辉岩(特别是高钛榴辉岩)的原岩可能为遭受过壳源物质混染与交代的富集地幔部分熔融的产物.高钛与低钛榴辉岩中石榴石和绿辉石在主量及微量元素组成上存在一定差别,总体而言,高钛榴辉岩中石榴石具高的MgO含量和较高的MgO/TFeO比值,以及较高的稀土和Sc含量,而绿辉石则相对富TFeO、MnO,并具有较高的Sr、Zr、Hf含量.高钛榴辉岩中石榴石和绿辉石常出现不同程度的Eu正异常,Cr含量均显著低于低钛榴辉岩.综合分析表明,高钛榴辉岩的原岩最可能为富斜长石的辉长质侵入岩,原岩组成的差异应是导致二类榴辉岩中石榴石和绿辉石矿物化学组成存在差异的主要原因.     

地震危险性不确定性分析中专家意见的合理综合

首先回顾了不确定性分析中常用的专家意见综合方法。然后在此基础上,提出了一新的简便易行的综合方法,并利用实例计算比较了三种综合方法的结果差异。所提出的方法在地震危险性不确定性分析专家意见的合理综合中具有较为实用的价值。     

河套地区土壤矿物组成分析及与各元素的关系

通过对河套地区土壤中矿物组成的分析研究,土壤中矿物组成中砂质成分主要为石英、长石、方解石,黏土矿物组合主要为伊利石、绿泥石和高岭石,此外还有角闪石等少量矿物成分。在砂土、粉砂土中石英、长石含量较高,在黏土质为主的土壤中黏土矿物含量增加。黏土矿物与石英以及长石呈负相关关系,与大多数元素呈明显正相关关系,黏土矿物对各元素具有明显吸附性;石英、长石与各元素含量呈负相关关系,说明其对元素不具有吸附性。     

"2005.5.30"庆阳特大冰雹新一代天气雷达回波资料分析

通过对2005年5月30日庆阳市区域性冰雹天气西峰新一代天气雷达回波资料的分析,得到了冰雹云在新一代天气雷达强度回波、速度回波和物理量产品中的特征,揭示了这次区域性冰雹是低涡底部切变线造成的,庆阳市区的特大冰雹并不是带状冰雹云系移动到当地产生的,而是飑线移动中在庆阳市区产生超级单体风暴造成的。     

多排螺旋CT五个剂量测量点位的统计学差异

目的:探讨螺旋CT五个辐射剂量测量点位(CTDI₁₀₀)值之间的差异和相关性统计学关系,以及该机器的辐射稳定性。方法:通过辐射剂量计和辐射剂量模体对螺旋CT五个测量点位进行12次重复测定,对各个点位的测量结果计算其相对偏差,然后用单因素方差分析(One-Way ANOVA)方法分析各点位测量结果之间的显著性。结果:5个点位重复测量的相对标准差分别为0.33%(中心点)、0.73%(3点位)、0.32%(6点位)、1.00%(9点位)和0.32%(12点位);3点位和9点位的平均值接近,单因素方差分析无显著性差异;12点位和6点位的平均值与3点位平均值的相对偏差在0.5%以下。结论:测试螺旋CT辐射稳定性良好,测试机型3点位和9点位在CTDI₁₀₀上测量等效。在非验收测试和状态测试场合CTDI_P可以进行简化。     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment

In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km²). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments.     

川滇交界地区构造应力场及强震趋势的统计预测

本文对川滇地区中、强震震源机制解和中小地震平均节面解分析，指出川滇地区现今构造应力场在北西－北西西向压应力作用下，以水平剪切错动为主。同时，采用极值理论、最大信息熵、线性预测和灰色理论等方法综合分析，预测川滇地区未来强震的趋势。