基于空间自相关的区域经济极化结构演化研究——以江苏省为例

从空间自相关视角厘清经济发展水平较高和较低地区的空间组织关系演化规律对区域经济健康发展具有重要意义。在界定集极、孤极和外围等概念基础上,运用地统计分析方法,按两级三区和三级五区结构体系分别构建江苏省全局和局部经济空间极化结构,分析其演化过程,结果显示：①全局空间集极范围不断扩大,孤极数量减少,逐渐形成南集极北孤极、南极北外的空间结构,其间空间自相关作用逐渐增强,区位是极化动因;② 局部空间演化走势不尽相同：沿江和沿京杭运河地区经济空间极化结构逐渐升级,而沿东陇海和沿海地区却相对恶化。因此认为当前江苏省全局空间中南北显著分化和局部空间相背演化现象值得关注。     

中国数字经济空间分异及影响因素

基于腾讯研究院公布的数字经济指数,运用插值模拟、Zipf位序-规模法则及地理探测器等方法,对2016年中国数字经济发展的空间分异特征进行分析,并对其影响因素进行探测比较。结果表明：① 中国数字经济发展空间分异明显,省域尺度呈现出自东向西梯度递减的特征,但川、渝成为创新发展新极点;城市尺度,城市群地区是数字经济发展高地。② 数字经济各分维度发展的协同性与差异性特征并存,但差异性更为显著。③ 国家层面,政府对科学技术方面的投入对数字经济的发展起重要作用;东部地区影响因素相对多样;信息化基础与潜力方面因素对中部地区起主导作用,且各因素交互后作用力显著加强;西部地区受多种因素的综合作用,不存在具有决定性的影响因素;东北地区的影响因素则相对单一。     

Prospects for a saturation of humanity’s resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035

Material stocks in infrastructure, buildings and machinery shape current and future resource use and emissions. Analyses of specific countries and selected materials suggest that material stocks might saturate, which would be important for a more sustainable social metabolism. However, it is unclear to what extent the evidence holds for a wider range of stocks and flows, as well as for world regions or globally.We present an inflow-driven dynamic stock-flow model for 14 bulk materials, end-of-life outflows, recycling, and waste flows for nine world regions from 1900 to 2015, extended with trend scenarios until 2035. Material stocks are growing in all regions and show little signs of saturation yet. In 2015, China used half of global stock-building materials, overtook everyone in stock size around 2012 and grows its stock at ∼8%/year. The Industrialized regions, including the Former Soviet Union, are slowly expanding their high stock levels at ∼1%/year. Stocks in all other regions, inhabited by 60% of the world population, grow at ∼3–5%/year. Inequalities in per capita stocks between regions are large. Trend scenarios suggest potential absolute or per capita stock saturations in some of the industrialized regions, while all other regions are expected to continue high stock growth.Accumulated stocks drive future end-of-life materials and substantial maintenance and replacement requirements. Growing material stocks hamper a potential stabilization or reduction of resource use. Low stock levels in most world regions suggest a crucial window of opportunity for avoiding resource-intensive stock development. In the industrialized regions and especially China, stabilising and reducing resource use requires halting net stock expansion and transforming existing stocks. More materials- and energy-efficient and long-lived stocks which deliver high quality services, and improved reuse, repair and recycling of increasing end-of-life materials to close loops and actually replace virgin resources, are crucial for a more sustainable social metabolism.     

云南省假日经济健康发展的对策分析

假日经济是近几年出现并引起普遍关注的具有中国特色的新兴的经济现象,其中最突出的表现为假日旅游业的发展。云南省在假日经济的发展过程中出现了诸如服务质量不高、存在安全隐患以及生态和环境资源受到破坏等问题,针对上述问题,采取带薪休假制度、加强基础设施建设,增强景区接待能力、丰富消费项目,创新消费产品,疏导假日消费、加强旅游信息系统建设等措施能有效的保证假日经济的健康发展并促进云南省经济的持续发展。     

From Wetland to Saltland: Natural Obstacles and Socioecological Consequences in the Production of Solar Salt in Venezuela

ABSTRACT

This article provides a critical analysis of the process involved in transforming small-scale artisanal production of solar salt into large-scale industrial production by Produsal in Los Olivitos Wildlife Refuge and Fishing Reserve in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela. In doing so, it highlights the socioecological impacts resulting from this process in the wetland and the fishing community of Ancón de Iturre. Using political economy of nature as a theoretical framework, especially notions of the formal subsumption of nature, materiality of natural resources, and the commodification of nature, this article explores how the biophysical characteristic of salt and the ecosystem where it is contained present a specific set of natural obstacles for its production; the different strategies used by Produsal to overcome these obstacles; and the social and ecological contradictions embedded in the process.     

黄河流域农村经济差异及空间演化

研究黄河流域农村经济发展状况对揭示其经济差异的驱动机制和实现黄河流域农村地区的跨越式发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文运用层次分析法建立农村经济发展水平综合评价指标体系,并利用GeoDA和GIS软件,结合ESDA-GIS空间分析法,深入分析了1990-2013年黄河流域332个县级行政单元农村经济的差异及其空间演化。结果表明：①近20多年来,黄河流域农村经济发展水平东高西低,整体水平不断上升。高及较高水平区主要分布在黄河下游且呈团状集聚,中等水平区主要位于黄河流域传统的农牧区,低及较低水平区主要分布在黄河源头及周边地区。空间格局以高水平区为中心,逐渐向周边低水平区扩散,分层现象较明显;②1990年以来,黄河流域农村经济的空间集聚效应呈逐渐增强态势,以显著高—高和显著低—低类型区为主且稳定性较强,而显著高—低和显著低—高类型区则较少;③区位、产业结构和政策是导致黄河流域农村经济差异的主要因素。     

Urbanization on the Mongolian Plateau after economic reform: Changes and causes

In response to changes in human and natural environments over the past three decades, transitional countries have experienced dramatic urbanization. In the context of socioeconomic and biophysical changes, our knowledge on these urbanization processes remains limited. Here, we used the Mongolian Plateau (i.e., Inner Mongolia (IM) and Mongolia (MG)) as a testbed and applied the coupled natural and human (CNH) concept to understand the processes and causes of urbanization. We selected six cities on the Mongolian Plateau, classified their urban built-up areas using Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA) from 1990 through 2015, and examined the driving forces of urbanization (i.e., economy, social goods, and environmental variables) through Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). We found that the spatial characteristics of urbanization in IM and MG have both similarities and differences. The cities in IM and MG have experienced rapid urban expansion, with urban areas increasing by 4.36 times and 3.12 times, respectively, since 1990. Cities in IM, however, were less dense and more sprawling whereas cities in MG were linearly aggregated. We also found through PLS-SEM that multiple driving forces affected urbanization in IM and MG during the transitional period. Results (path coef.) demonstrated that economic development (0.559) is a major driver for urbanization in IM, whereas social goods (0.646) and economic development (0.433) strongly influence urbanization in MG. These differences are likely due to the divergent governmental roles in urban development and in infrastructure/social support, as well as the differing economic structures in IM and MG.     

长沙市城市居民宅基地转入意愿及影响因素

研究宅基地转入方的需求意愿及影响因素可为构建科学合理的宅基地流转制度提供参考。从需求的角度出发,构建城市居民宅基地转入意愿影响因素分析模型,以长沙市为例,运用Logistic回归模型分析了城市居民宅基地转入意愿的影响因素。结果表明:影响城市居民宅基地转入意愿的因素主要有宅基地形状、城市居民年龄、城市居民家庭住房使用年限、宅基地产权、宅基地与中心城区的距离和宅基地基础设施状况。宅基地流转应以城中村和城郊村为试点范围,加快宅基地确权颁证,完善宅基地基础设施。     

浙江省县域经济格局的空间演化分析

基于浙江省67个县域的人均GDP,利用Arc GIS空间统计分析功能,分析2000—2013年间浙江省县域经济格局的空间演化的特征。结果表明:浙江省各县域人均国民收入存在正向的空间自相关;县域经济呈现西南—东北逐步增强的格局;2000—2013年间经济重心和格局比较稳定,略微向东北方向移动;冷热点分析和标准差椭圆也显示了不同县域之间存在分化。形成这种格局的原因包括第一自然的分异、产业集群的空间联系、政策红利的差异、区域规划的变化和国际经济环境的影响5个方面,并据此提出相应对策。     

稀土资源战略实施路径两种模式探讨

稀土元素因其丰富的光、电、磁、热特性被广泛应用于传统工业领域及新兴产业领域,稀土资源被多数国家认定为是战略性资源或关键性矿产资源。我国是稀土资源大国,无论从储量、产量还是消费量上来看我国都居于世界前列。从资源管理角度我国稀土资源战略定位可以概括为有效保护和合理利用稀土资源,保障资源供应安全;坚持国家利益最大化,优先满足国内应用需求;节约集约利用资源,在开发利用的同时保护生态环境。本文初步探讨了以计划为基础和以市场为导向的两种实现稀土资源战略的实施路径,并就此提出稀土产业发展的相关建议