Mapping fisheries in the German exclusive economic zone with special reference to offshore Natura 2000 sites

Large intensity and diversity of human activities result in an increase in complexity in the utilization of space. This paper describes the fisheries and a method to map fishing efforts and catches of different fleets by combining vessel monitoring system (VMS) data and logbook data. The method makes it possible to explore the spatial and temporal variability of fishing and the potential impacts of proposed management measures on the fisheries. The method is proposed to be used in the development of management plans for marine protected areas such as Natura 2000 sites, designated to protect vulnerable habitats and species.     

Quantifying the storm erosion hazard for coastal planning

The quantity of coastline retreat resulting from storm erosion is one of the most important phenomena that needs to be accurately quantified to facilitate effective coastal management strategies. Historically, the volume of storm erosion (and coastline retreat) accommodated for coastal planning decisions has been directly linked to the storm (usually defined by considering wave height and duration only) with a certain pre-defined return period, known as a Synthetic Design Storm (SDS) (e.g. 1 in 100 year storm). The SDS method of estimating storm erosion volumes for coastal planning thus assumes that, for example, the 1 in 100 year storm event also results in a 1 in 100 year erosion event. This communication discusses the physical reality of this assumption and demonstrates the improved performance of a new method, based on Joint Probability Distributions (JPD) for estimating storm erosion volumes proposed by Callaghan et al. [Callaghan, D.P., Nielsen, P., Short, A.D. and Ranasinghe, R., 2008. Statistical simulation of wave climate and extreme beach erosion. Coastal Engineering, 55(5): 375–390] using one of the world's longest beach profile surveys from Sydney, Australia.     

Marine reserve phenomenon in the Pacific islands

Coinciding with increased numbers of global marine reserves, communities in the Pacific islands are establishing unprecedented number of periodically-harvested and indefinitely-closed marine reserves. An integrated ecological and social comparative methodology is used to examine the motivations and outcomes of reserves in Vanuatu. Communities establish permanent reserves due to concerns about human impacts on reefs, while others establish periodic reserves in response to declining resources. Local knowledge suggests that both reserve types are effective, although validation by underwater surveys was inconclusive. Community support for both reserve types is strong, suggesting that the marine reserve phenomenon in Pacific will continue.     

源地黑潮及其上下游流量的变化特征

本文基于长时间序列的海流和温盐资料（最新版SODA高分辩率再分析资料和137°E断面的观测资料）,计算了黑潮流系四个主要断面的流量,并分析了它们的变化特征．结果表明,黑潮流系各主要断面流量具有显著的季节性差异,其年际、年代际变化明显．相关分析表明,源地黑潮及其上下游流量变化具有较强的独立性,变化不尽一致,其中,短期气候变化特征可能与热带太平洋的年际变化有明显关联,而年代际变化则可能与发生于北太平洋的年代际变化以及其它副热带中尺度涡旋等变化有一定联系．     

罗源湾船舶溢油风险评价分析

基于罗源湾远期油轮的发展预测,运用概率与数理统计方法计算出罗源湾海域未来 S 年中发生船舶溢油事故的概率基础值为 0.361×10-4/S,进而对罗源湾船舶溢油风险进行预测评价,结果显示:罗源湾海域船舶溢油概率约为每 10 a 一次,每次产生的溢油量约为 57.3 t 原油,经过一个潮周期,油膜面积理论估算值为 0.64 km2.针对罗源湾海域的实际情况,还提出了相应的风险防范措施.     

莱州湾南岸海水入侵现状评价

根据莱州湾南岸海水入侵区地下水水质特点,将海水入侵等级划分为4级。同时,选取Cl^-,矿化度,SO4^2-,rHCO3^-/rCl^-,K^-等指标作为评价因子,并分别确定了这5项指标的等级划分范围。然后,运用模糊数学的综合评判方法,对研究区内海水入侵现状做出评价。     

苏皖下扬子区晚白垩世以来的构造-热历史：浦口组砂岩磷灰石裂变径迹证据

对苏皖下扬子区上白垩统浦口组（K2P）的三个砂岩样品进行了磷灰石裂变径迹（AFT）研究。结果显示：2个样品的AFT合并年龄为（88．8±4．4）Ma（径迹长度为（12．0±0．3）μm）和（82．1±6．8）Ma（径迹长度为（14．4±0．3）μm）与浦口组沉积年龄相近,说明它们沉降的幅度达到但没有超过AFT部分退火区间,1个样品的AFT合并年龄（117．3±5．9）Ma（径迹长度为（13．3±0．3）μm）大于浦口组沉积年龄,代表物源区抬升、剥露的冷却年龄。根据热历史模拟结果,识别出黄桥事件（110～90Ma）、仪征事件（70～60Ma）和三垛事件（35～22Ma）三期重要的构造事件,并将下扬子区晚白垩世以来的盆地演化划分为四个阶段：110～70Ma断坳复合型伸展盆地、70～35Ma拉张断陷盆地、35～22Ma挤压抬升阶段和22Ma至今坳陷盆地。     

西湖凹陷平北地区烃源岩特征及生排烃史

为了综合确定平北地区的主力烃源岩,深化其油气成藏动力学过程研究,在烃源岩分布特征及有机质丰度、类型和成熟度分析的基础上,应用舍油气盆地数值模拟技术,定量恢复了研究区主要烃源岩层系的生排烃历史。研究表明,平北地区主要发育始新统平湖组、渐新统花港组两套烃源岩系,其中平湖组暗色泥岩为主力烃源岩,具较高的有机质丰度、成熟度、生排烃强度与排烃效率;以平湖组为源岩的油气系统应是本区油气勘探的主要目标。     

正韵律厚油层剩余油的水平井开发技术研究

与直井相比,水平井开发具有缩短油井井距,扩大泄油面积,提高临界锥流量,更好地控制注入流体、改善波及效率等优势。在相同采液量的情况下,水平井可以降低采液强度,减缓含水上升速度。特高含水期河流相储集层的顶部是剩余油富集区,利用水平井技术挖掘正韵律厚油层顶部剩余油,取得了很好的开发效果,最终采收率较直井开发提高了14个百分点。